MLR Playoff Race – Who Needs What

The final week of the Major League Rugby regular season is upon us and the playoff race could not possibly be any closer. One team is in – the San Diego Legion – while four vie for the three remaining Semi Final spots. Remarkably, all are equal in points.

Toronto, New York, New Orleans, and Seattle are the teams in question and depending on the results this weekend, any could finish in first place overall and earn home field advantage or miss out entirely. The current standings are as follows:

As the graphic indicates, the Gold are currently on the outside looking in. Despite being equal in points they do so because of the tie-breaking criteria. There are five steps that can be used to break ties. The full list can be seen here, but the first two are the most likely to be required.

a) Most wins

b) Points differential

With less wins than the other challengers, NOLA will miss out should a tie-breaker be required. That scenario will occur if the Gold loses in San Diego and their points total matches the loser of the Toronto-New York game or possibly Seattle. It could also occur if Toronto ties New York and NOLA earns two bonus points in defeat.

There is another situation where the tie-breaker may well be relevant, particularly if NOLA defeats San Diego. While the Legion have clinched their spot in the Semi Final, they are still within reach of the other four teams for first overall.

Home field advantage in the Championship Series will be determined by final regular season placing. The team that finishes first will win the right to host both the Semi Final and the Final, with second place hosting the other Semi Final. Both first and second are up for grabs.

The simplest way for any of the four contenders to reach their goal is to win. A victory guarantees a spot among the top four given that two teams are going head-to-head in one match. In the event that three teams win, the loser is out. When multiple teams lose or ties occur, that’s when the numbers matter.

Instead of analyzing the possible outcomes which are numerous when bonus points are taken into account, it’s perhaps easiest to look at the three games that matter individually. As it happens all three will be played on Sunday with two on overlapping schedules, though one match is certain to have more attention than the other.

NEW YORK @ TORONTO – 1:00pm ET

This match has become a de facto quarter final of sorts. The only thing muddying that statement is that the loser isn’t necessarily out. Both teams enjoy a better record and greater points differential than Seattle or NOLA, and given the likelihood of a San Diego victory it’s prudent to assume that bonus points will play a decisive role on Sunday evening.

There are two ways to earn bonus points in defeat. The first is to lose by seven points or less, the second is to score four tries. Achieve both and you take away two bonus points, effectively equal to a tie. If the losing team in Toronto stays close, there’s still a chance they could advance ahead of the Gold.

NOLA @ SAN DIEGO – 7:30pm ET

By the time this match kicks off, the game in Toronto will be long over and the teams will have the added pressure of knowing exactly what they need to survive or clinch home field advantage. That will certainly effect decision making if the result is in question in the second half.

If the loser of the Toronto game picks up two bonus points, NOLA will need either a win, or a tie with four tries. A tie alone will not be enough unless Seattle completely falters against Austin, an unlikely situation. If the loser of the Toronto game picks up only one bonus point, a tie would then be sufficient to advance.

If the loser of the Toronto game picks up no bonus points, NOLA’s options increase. A win will no longer be necessary and they can advance with a losing bonus point, or the four try bonus. With their high power offense the latter seems most likely, though San Diego boasts the league’s stingiest defense.

AUSTIN @ SEATTLE – 8:00pm ET

This one will start while the San Diego game is still in the first half but the Seawolves will be unconcerned with its progress. After failing to win or get a try bonus point against Utah, Seattle will consider themselves fortunate that it’s Austin who are coming to Starfire Stadium.

The Elite arrive winless and will must throw caution to the wind. That should play right into Seattle’s hands and there’s little reason to think that the Seawolves won’t get the win they need on their home turf. An upset here would be monumental – the biggest in MLR history without question.

There have been many dramatic moments that have led us to this exciting conclusion. Last gasp tries, inclement weather, injuries, all have taken their toll. Major League Rugby is now set for a titanic weekend that will plot the course for what is sure to be an equally unpredictable playoff series.