ARC Preview – Brazil vs Canada

Two sides looking to rebound from defeat will collide in the second round of the Americas Rugby Championship on Saturday. Canada arrives in São José dos Campos looking to bounce back from their disappointing loss to Uruguay while Brazil are hoping for the same after being routed by the Argentina XV in Patagonia.

It’s a dangerous situation for the visitors, who have beaten the Tupis in two of their three previous meetings but their only defeat came in 2017 on Brazilian soil. After floundering in Montevideo against a 14-man Teros side the Canadians will be desperate to avoid being swept in their South American trip especially with World Rugby Rankings points on the line. A loss would see them potentially dropping below Spain to 21st overall.

Kingsley Jones has given his side a vote of confidence despite the first round loss. The only change to the match day 23 sees uncapped Bedford Blues flanker Justin Blanchet named on the bench in place of Toronto Arrows lock Mike Sheppard. It gives the reserve list an unusual complexion with three props and three loose forwards but no specialist hooker or lock cover. Noah Barker is the emergency backup for Eric Howard though he came on as a loosehead prop replacement against Uruguay while Kyle Baillie would move to lock if required.

A major talking point from the Teros match was the failing of Theo Sauder as a goal kicker. The mercurial fullback scored a superb individual try but connected with only one kick from five off the tee. With an identical lineup it remains to be seen if Sauder is again trusted with those duties or Ciaran Hearn is given the job. Patrick Parfrey has kicked goals for his provincial side but has never done so at test level.

Blanchet is not the only uncapped player on the bench as 20-year-old scrumhalf Will Percillier awaits his debut. An unused replacement against Uruguay, Percillier is himself a goal kicker and it is perhaps a surprise than neither he or Dragons academy flyhalf Will Kelly – left out completely – were not summoned in the run-on side. Seattle Seawolves flanker Nakai Penny will look to win his second cap after debuting off the bench in Montevideo.

The Tupis, meanwhile, have not sat idly after being overwhelmed by the Argentina XV in Neuquén. There were two clear try-scoring opportunities missed by poor handling that will have frustrated coach Rodolfo Ambrosio while defense in transition was also a letdown.

Ambrosio has axed four players from the starting lineup in response and another from the bench. Hooker Endy Willian, second row Lucas Piero, flanker Michael Moraes, and right wing De Wet van Niekerk are out with only Moraes retained in the match day squad. Meanwhile Stefano Giantorno, a replacement winger against the Argentines, has also been dropped.

Recalled to the side is Wilton Rebolo, a versatile front rower who packs down at hooker. He adds more than 23kg (50lbs) of bulk to the scrum with his experience at tighthead prop evident in the set piece against the Māori in November. Gabriel Paganini adds lineout height in place of Piero, and the first choice loose forward trio is restored as André Arruda returns at No8 with Arthur Bergo shifting to his more familiar openside flanker position.

Despite misfiring against the Argentina XV there is only one change to the backline. van Niekerk’s spot goes to Robert Tenório, a much bigger physical presence who often plays on the flank for his club side. Lucas Tranquez wears the No14 shirt again but lines up on the left wing, a long-range goal-kicking alternative for regular kicker Josh Reeves.

There are three notable additions to the reserve list. Walter Schildberg is set to make his test debut after making his first Tupis appearance on the weekend, but there is a heavyweight loose forward addition in Alexandre Alves. ‘Texugo’ has also been capped at prop and lock and has recently returned from a spell with Shute Shield club Warringah.

Combative winger Ariel Rodrigues takes Giantorno’s spot and a newcomer is named as midfield cover in Lorenzo Massari. Born in Brazil, the 21-year-old plays for Parabiago in the Italian second division and has come through Italy’s age grade academy program in Milan.

Canada’s confidence is again wavering slightly in the wake of Saturday’s result and there are reasons to believe they could struggle again this weekend. The scrum was a problem against Uruguay while Brazil’s was a point of strength against the Argentina XV. Rebolo’s size and strength will only make it more difficult for the Canadian front row.

With a blowout by either side unlikely there is a strong chance goal kicking will be vitally important. Whoever Canada nominates for that task will not be of the level of Reeves, an educated striker of the ball whose talents have earned him a Major League Rugby contract with the Utah Warriors.

Add home field advantage to the above and Brazil are not nearly the underdogs the rankings suggest. Indeed the circumstances are eerily similar to the last time Canada faltered in Brazil. For both this is a must-win game and for the visitors there is added incentive – spots on the place to Japan later this year. Should the men in red suffer defeat again there may be some who suddenly find themselves on the outside looking in.

Kickoff is set for 8:15pm local time, 6:15pm Eastern, 3:15pm Pacific. Live broadcasts will be available on ESPN in South America, FloRugby in the USA, and on TSN 3 in Canada. Those located elsewhere can watch on the World Rugby website.

BRAZIL
1 Lucas Abud, 2 Wilton Rebolo, 3 Jardel Vettorato, 4 Gabriel Paganini, 5 Luiz Vieira, 6 Cléber Dias, 7 Arthur Bergo, 8 André Arruda, 9 Lucas Duque, 10 Josh Reeves, 11 Robert Tenório, 12 Moisés Duque, 13 Felipe Sancery (capt.), 14 Lucas Tranquez, 15 Daniel Sancery

Replacements: 16 Walter Schildberg, 17 Caíque Silva, 18 Pedro Bengaló, 19 Michael Moraes, 20 Alexandre Alves, 21 Douglas Rauth, 22 Lorenzo Massari, 23 Ariel Rodrigues

CANADA
1 Djustice Sears-Duru, 2 Eric Howard, 3 Matt Tierney, 4 Conor Keys, 5 Josh Larsen, 6 Kyle Baillie, 7 Lucas Rumball (capt.), 8 Luke Campbell, 9 Jamie Mackenzie, 10 Patrick Parfrey, 11 Kainoa Lloyd, 12 Ciaran Hearn, 13 Ben LeSage, 14 Andrew Coe, 15 Theo Sauder

Replacements: 16 Noah Barker, 17 Ryan Kotlewski, 18 Cole Keith, 19 Justin Blanchet, 20 Dustin Dobravsky, 21 Nakai Penny, 22 Will Percillier, 23 Nick Blevins

Date: Saturday, February 9
Venue: Estádio Martins Pereira, São José dos Campos
Kickoff: 20:15 local (15:15 Pacific, 18:15 Eastern)
Referee: Frank Méndez (FERUCHI)
Broadcasts: ESPN (Brazil), ESPN 3 (South America), FloRugby (USA), TSN 3 (Canada), World Rugby