ARN Rugby Forecast July 24-25

Americas Rugby News is happy to announce another semi-regular feature addition to the website. Each week, our editors will give their predictions and insight on various international rugby matches. Most will involve teams from the Americas, but may also include some big international events such as the Rugby Championship, Six Nations, and of course the upcoming World Cup. This weekend’s predictions:

 

PACIFIC NATIONS CUP

 

July 24 – Fiji vs Samoa

Paul – Fiji’s squad competing in the PNC is far closer to the probable World Cup team to take the field in the opening weekend of the tournament. The manner in which Fiji outplayed Tonga in the loose and scrums last weekend should see the Fijian forwards providing the backs with quality ball. With both now ranked in the world’s Top 10 the match should be a highlight of the weekend. Prediction: Fiji to win.

Bryan – Fiji have captain Qera back and exciting youngster Yato starting in the back row. Volavola looked got better as the game went on against Tonga, and has close to a full strength backline outside him. Samoa looked good against the Eagles in the first half but have a very inexperienced spine compared to Fiji. This should be a very exciting game, with plenty for the highlight reels. Prediction: Fiji by 7.

Ted – The top PNC match of the weekend pitting two Pacific Island powers against each other. Expect a physical and exciting match as both teams are built to entertain. Samoa looked vulnerable in the 2nd half against the USA. The question will be whether Fiji can take advantage if Samoa stumbles. Samoa has won the last three meetings between the two sides dating back to 2011. Prediction: Samoa wins a close one.

 

July 24 – Canada vs Tonga

Paul – With both teams having lost their matches last weekend they will be hungry to impress. Too many players from both teams struggled against Fiji and Japan and cannot do so again or their World Cup prospects could be damaged beyond repair. With home advantage Canada ought to have a slight edge, with a similar match to that of 2013 appearing likely. On that day Canada won 36-27. Prediction: Canada to sneak a tight victory.

Bryan – Canada are back on home turf, but Tonga are not to be underestimated. They are always stronger in a World Cup year and are closer to full strength than Canada. Takulua and Morath are an upgrade at halfback, and those outside backs are deadly. Canada will need to be far more accurate and their game plan against Japan was not inspiring. If Tonga keep their discipline they have a good shot. I have mixed feelings about this one but will be optimistic. Prediction: Canada by 3.

Ted – This should be an interesting match. Canada struggled last week against Japan. It could have been a much different match were it not for handling mistakes. Expect Canada to clean up some of those mistakes and put in a better effort. Tonga is coming off of a heartbreaking loss to Fiji where they were winning 22-16 before Fiji scored twice in the final eight minutes to win 30-22. Prediction: Tonga bounces back and beats Canada.

 

July 24 – Japan vs USA

Paul – Recent results firmly suggest that Japan has the wood over the USA but the Japanese have named a weakened side which the Eagles could indeed be stronger than. Japan is a different prospect to Samoa who play very different styles and the changes made by Tolkin of mobility in the pack ought to see the USA competing strongly at the breakdown. There is sufficient spark in the backline to cause damage though the defense cannot slip off tackles as was the case in San José.  Prediction: USA to win by a surprising margin.

Bryan – The Eagles did well against a tired Samoan side, but Japan play a vastly different style and have a more organized defense. Japan is also tougher at the set piece. The loose forward trio will need to get go-forward for the likes of Palamo and Ngwenya. Japan are without super-boot Goromaru, so that helps the American cause. Petri has way more experience than Uchida, but still a tough game for the Eagles. Prediction: Japan by 5.

Ted – My upset special of the week. Japan and the USA have played some extremely entertaining matches in recent years. Japan in one of the few sides against which the USA shows attacking flair. Both teams should come out firing in this one. The key for the USA will be getting off to a good start as slow starts have been their Achilles. Japan looked robotic in their win over Canada last week and lacked enterprise. They’ll need to show more to beat the USA. Prediction: USA pulls out a win at home.

 

THE RUGBY CHAMPIONSHIP

 

July 24 – South Africa vs New Zealand

Paul – Both teams have made changes from last weekend with South Africa’s alterations minor compared to New Zealand’s. The Springbok lineup for the World Cup is expected to be very similar to that named while New Zealand’s likely first XV for the World Cup will be quite different. As such South Africa should be regarded as being at near full strength and slight favorites, but don’t overlook the depth of the All Blacks. Prediction: Springboks to complete a narrow escape.

Bryan – Sopoaga is a huge talent but making a test debut against the Springboks anywhere is a tough ask, never mind Ellis Park. Despite the All Blacks rolling out most of their big guns, playing on the Highveld is always an issue. Pollard and Pienaar will have a big say in field position. Brüssow is one of the world’s best at the breakdown and is a big boost. The Boks will be hell bent on getting one over before the World Cup, and this is their golden chance. Prediction: Springboks by 3.

Ted – One of the most storied rivalries in all of the rugby world. Regardless of current form, whenever these teams meet it is going to be a battle. On paper, the All Blacks are clear favorites, but that means little to South Africa. They’ll be at home and seem to relish every opportunity to take on New Zealand. This is going to be a battle. Prediction: All Blacks sneak one out in Johannesburg.

 

July 24 – Argentina vs Australia

Paul – Australia’s win over South Africa silenced a number of critics as the Wallabies returned to the world’s top five. Argentina, in contrast, failed to spark at all in attack and had defensive problems which New Zealand was able to exploit. Hourcade has responded by naming a much changed team and one that is, again, below full strength. Argentina’s depth is going to be put to the test by a dangerous opponent. Prediction: Australia to win after a strong start and Argentine fight back.

Bryan – The Wallabies escaped against the Boks and on paper might have a better lineup this week. Pocock should remind us all what Oz has been missing, but he will draw the attention of the big boppers like Lavanini. Argentina at home are very tough and a number of players have points to prove. Pumas have the edge up front, but can they contain Kuridrani and Folau? Close call. Prediction: Australia by 5.

Ted – Argentina is going to look to rebound from their loss to the All Blacks last weekend. They’ll be at home again and need a better effort. They’re facing a Wallabies side that is coming off a big win over South Africa. Will their momentum be enough to get them over the top after a long trip to Argentina? This should be a very close match. Prediction: Australia holds on for a tight victory.