ARN Forecast – November 12-13

Can anyone knock the Sage one off his pedestal? Derek took a clean victory in round one thanks to his lucky prediction of Ireland over New Zealand. Thankfully this week there are some really challenge games with a couple almost total coin-tosses. Before the goods, here’s a recap of our roster:

From ThisIsAmericanRugby we have battle-hardened veteran Curtis Reed, and we’re also graced with the fresh-faced master of the scrum, Derek Sagehorn. Repping Rugby Today is Mr. Numbers himself Jake Frechette, and then of course there’s the rugby savant Junoir Blaber from the Rugby Wrap Up. World renowned Rugby United sergeant-at-arms Dan Mason fancies his punditry skills, and Doug Coil is the quiet assassin from DJ Coil Rugby. Standing up for the home team is the man with the plan, Ted Hardy.

The Brazilians have little respect for American opinion and each seem confident of victory this time around. Victor Ramalho checks in from Portal do Rugby and he forms an effective tag team partnership with Paul Tait of this parish. They have stiff competition from Uruguay’s venerable veteran Ignacio Chans from El Observador.

Meanwhile holding fast in the great white north is Patrick Johnston of The Province and ARN’s own Bryan Ray. Too bad this isn’t a hockey pool fellas!

Readers beware… there are some compelling arguments below!

 

November 12-13, 2016	ROM v USA	GER v URU	WAL v ARG	IRE v CAN	CHL v KOR
Bryan Ray Americas Rugby News	ROM +6	URU +11	ARG +6	IRE +15	CHL +8
Curtis Reed ThisIsAmericanRugby	USA +21	URU +15	ARG +12	IRE +40	CHL +10
Dan Mason Rugby United	USA +5	URU +12	WAL +4	IRE +32	KOR +7
Derek Sagehorn ThisIsAmericanRugby	ROM +7	URU +10	ARG +12	IRE +25	KOR +2
Doug Coil DJ Coil Rugby	USA +5	URU +12	ARG +3	IRE +17	CHL +6
Ignacio Chans El Observador	ROM +12	URU +15	ARG +5	IRE +30	CHL +15
Jake Frechette Rugby Today	ROM +2	URU +5	ARG +7	IRE +10	CHL +3
Junior Blaber Rugby Wrap Up	USA +7	URU +17	ARG +10	IRE +5	CHL +12
Patrick Johnston The Province	ROM +3	URU +10	ARG +5	IRE +20	===
Paul Tait Americas Rugby News	USA +6	URU +16	ARG +8	IRE +25	CHL +12
Ted Hardy Americas Rugby News	USA +3	URU +10	WAL +5	IRE +25	CHL +17
Victor Ramalho Portal do Rugby	ROM +3	URU +17	ARG +15	IRE +40	CHL +1

 

ROMANIA (16) vs USA (17)
Saturday, November 12, 18:00 Bucharest

The closest match of the weekend with our panel completely split! Can the Eagles rebound in Bucharest?

BR: The Eagles have had the best of Romania in recent years, but I’m struggling to figure out John Mitchell’s selection strategy and they are up against a quality Oaks team. There are fewer changes that I expected after a poor performance against the Māori. I don’t expect much creativity in this match so I’m leaning towards the home team this time.

CR: Despite last week’s result the Eagles have improved as a team. With Blaine Scully and the like returning they will find their groove once again and take it to Romania offensively. That said, as an American my predictive ability should be taken with a grain of salt given our record in last weekend’s predictions…

DC: In spite of Romania being the higher ranked team, the USA has had success against the Oaks in Bucharest and will field a stronger side against them with some European professionals joining the team. Look for a physical battle with the Eagles prevailing.

DS: The mighty Oaks are going to bash the Eagles at scrum time.

IC: Romania at home is dangerous for any team. The USA is coming off a huge loss against the Māori. I expect to see a balanced match in which Romania will break clear in the second half.

JF: This one hurts me, as I tend to be optimistic when it comes to the Eagles. However, a lot went wrong last weekend. There is certainly a chance that Hughes and Scully will shape the match, but it is hard to imagine that big of an improvement in one week.

PJ: Romania will teach the Eagles about Canadian heartbreak. John Mitchell’ has picked a lineup to run the Oaks off the park but I’ve seen this show before. Sorry USA.

PT: Todd Clever led the Eagles to wins in Bucharest in 2012 and 2014. The latter of these was without European professionals. This weekend’s match sees no such player restrictions. The side picked is interesting but I expect strong ball carrying in the centers and elusive running outside.

TH: It won’t be pretty, but the Eagles will sneak out the win.

VR: The match is really close and the USA has the historical advantage. It’s been 17 years since Romania beat the USA, but maybe another curse will fall.

 

GERMANY (26) vs URUGUAY (19)
Saturday, November 12, 17:45 Frankfurt

Los Teros are significant favorites over a game but outmatched German side.

BR: That’s an exciting Uruguay lineup and Germany were very lackluster in the European Nations Cup.

CR: Germany don’t have the forwards to compete.

DC: In trying to look at common opponents, Brazil has beaten the rapidly improving German team in 2015. In 2016 Germany drew with Spain, beat Portugal and lost to both Romania and Russia.

DS: Germans hang with Los Teros early but get clobbered by the back three in the second half.

IC: The international tour gets underway for Uruguay. It is vital for the rankings and qualifying path to Japan 2019. Meneses has picked a very young side, but one that was able to push Samoa ‘A’ in the Americas Pacific Challenge. The return of Berchesi gives him many options in attack and defense. Expect a dynamic game from Uruguay, looking for the spaces against a team strong in defense but rather limited when in possession. If Uruguay delivers in contact, it should win by more than 15, if it does not succeed, it could be a difficult afternoon.

JF: The better Uruguay perform, the less the USA Selects’ loss in the Americas Pacific Challenge will haunt me.

PJ: The Germans could be a fun team very soon, but Uruguay’s got too much experience. Power in the scrum is such a weapon.

PT: Big chance here for Los Teros to show their progress. They have been settled long enough in Germany to record a big win. Their aim ought to be to win by at least 15 points to gain the highest rise in the World Rugby Rankings.

TH: Sounds like a fun matchup to see. Good to see both squads getting fall test matches.

VR: The newest Tier 2 nation is growing fast with a great calendar at hand to improve even more. It is Los Teros’ time.

 

WALES (7) vs ARGENTINA (6)
Saturday, November 12, 17:30 Cardiff

Well, well, well. Argentina are heavy favorites even in Cardiff. Wales have it all to do.

BR: Wales were blown away by a mediocre Australia team that Argentina should have beaten in the Rugby Championship. Going strictly on form and ability the Pumas are a much better team, but Wales are a proud nation and they will put up a fight on their home turf.

CR: Wales can pull out a good result every now and then but the Rugby Championship has Argentina on another level.

DC: This will be a match where the team that seizes the early momentum will win a close match.

DS: One dimensional Wales meets a buzz saw.

IC: Wales has to react somehow to the hammering at the hands of Australia. Argentina got their tour underway exactly as they should have. I expect to see an even contest, with Argentina opening and closing with the dynamics of its backs.

JF: The little brother of the Rugby Championship should have another enjoyable outing.

PJ: The Pumas have flown a long way for this one but we know where their strengths lie. Wales will be frustrated in the set piece and that will tell the story.

PT: A great time to be facing Wales given their weak showing against Australia and Gatland’s involvement with the Lions. If the Pumas show up they will win by 20. Given the travel, a Welsh rebound, and Pumas inconsistency, a smaller margin is likely.

TH: Tough to call, but my gut is telling me that Wales is due for big match.

VR: Rob Howley inherited a big headache with a Welsh team playing below expectations. The Pumas are going to fly in Cardiff.

 

IRELAND (5) vs CANADA (18)
Saturday, November 12, 19:15 Dublin

Poor old Canada are badly outgunned but with nothing to lose can they give the revelers a scare?

BR: Geez Louise, what a time to be playing against Ireland. Thankfully they’ve gone and changed their entire starting lineup but that was expected. They are still all top professionals and that back row is certainly no downgrade from last week. Canada have a quality backline, maybe the best they’ve ever fielded, but inexperience up front and the pressure of a packed house in Dublin is going to be too much.

CR: I hate to say it for the Canadians but I think this one shakes out very similar to the World Cup.

DC: Ireland is fresh off a dramatic win over New Zealand and they face them again after the match against Canada. Look for many of Ireland’s reserves to gain significant playing time. Canada will play hard, but are no match for Ireland.

DS: The Irish reserves, high off their historic win, will tear down Maple Leafs.

IC: Canada may play notably more than Ireland who are still in paradise after their victory against the All Blacks. They could be slow to find their feet. I expect a tight game, at least in the first half, although Ireland will demonstrate its superiority to win comfortably.

JF: Canada will score a great try, but the defense and scrum will struggle to keep up with Ireland.

PJ: Mark Anscombe is talking a brave game but he’s also realistic. He’s got a fun backline and the scrum may be improving but basic errors have killed Canada so often in the last two seasons we’ve got to see improvement first.

PT: The Irish have tended to win their home matches against Tier 2 sides by big scores. 49-7 vs Georgia in 2014, 40-9 vs Samoa in 2013, and 53-0 vs Fiji in 2012. The latter was actually Ireland ‘A’. Canada will do very well do be within 15 points but ought to play for a win regardless.

TH: It’s a completely new lineup for Ireland, but there’s still more than enough class to dispatch Canada.

VR: Who will stop the Irish after a victory like the one last week? Sorry for Canada, but they will suffer in Dublin.

 

CHILE (27) vs SOUTH KOREA (28)
Sunday, November 13, 16:00 Las Condes

Los Cóndores are the betting favorites, but these predictions look to be educated guesses at best.

BR: Chile are fielding a weak lineup for some reason. Hopefully that means a full strength side for the Americas Rugby Championship. As such both teams are relative unknowns and with similar rankings I see a close match with jet lag slowing the Koreans in the final quarter.

CR: See Germany vs Uruguay above.

DC: This could be one of the closest matches, as South Korea has a number of Japan League professionals on the team. Chile has an excellent kicker and I expect that the kicking game will be the difference in the match.

DS: The bulky Koreans go head-to-head with Chile and squeak a win.

IC: This is an absolute unknown. Korea will complicate matters by using their high-speed game against a rival who has had little rugby this year. The home side, nevertheless, has an important advantage as the Asians have had a long journey.

JF: Because why not?

PJ: I’ll pass on this one, but do wonder how the travel will have an impact. Good to see teams at this level getting a fixture like this.

PT: The only indicator is the Junior World Trophy match between the sides. Chile won that by 49-21 in Kenya in 2009. Los Cóndores at home and in season. This is going to be a win for them.

TH: Another fun one to keep an eye on. Love test matches between sides like these. Complete strangers. Great for the sport.

VR: Hard to tell anything about two teams that never played each other. Korea have players with Japanese Rugby experience, but Chile will play for the pride.