ARN Forecast – November 4-5

International rugby is back, and so is the rugby forecast! We’ve polled some of the top gurus in the Americas to see who they think will be the big winners this weekend as Argentina arrive in Japan, and of course the AIG Rugby Weekend in Chicago. We don’t normally include games that aren’t involving an Americas team but then again there aren’t many neutral games in the Americas and certainly none of this magnitude! Since it’s a special occasion, we’re adding Ireland’s match against New Zealand to the list.

It’s a roster of 12 this time with two lowly frozen canucks, three from the outer reaches of South America, and a huge group of seven from the continental United States.

From ThisIsAmericanRugby we have battle-hardened veteran Curtis Reed, and we’re also graced with the fresh-faced master of the scrum, Derek Sagehorn. Repping Rugby Today is Mr. Numbers himself Jake Frechette, and then of course there’s the rugby savant Junoir Blaber from the Rugby Wrap Up. World renowned Rugby United sergeant-at-arms Dan Mason fancies his punditry skills, and Doug Coil is the quiet assassin from DJ Coil Rugby. Standing up for the home team is the man with the plan, Ted Hardy.

The Brazilians have little respect for American opinion and each seem confident of victory this time around. Victor Ramalho checks in from Portal do Rugby and he forms an effective tag team partnership with Paul Tait of this parish. They have stiff competition from Uruguay’s venerable veteran Ignacio Chans from El Observador.

Meanwhile holding fast in the great white north is Patrick Johnston of The Province and ARN’s own Bryan Ray. Too bad this isn’t a hockey pool fellas!

Judging from the choices below it looks like this was an easy start to the November test series!

 

November 4-5, 2016	USA v NZM	JPN v ARG	IRE v NZL
Bryan Ray Americas Rugby News	NZM +30	ARG +18	NZL +18
Curtis Reed ThisIsAmericanRugby	NZM +14	ARG +28	NZL +14
Dan Mason Rugby United	NZM +40	ARG +24	NZL +27
Derek Sagehorn ThisIsAmericanRugby	NZM +19	ARG +12	IRE +3
Doug Coil DJ Coil Rugby	NZM +4	ARG +9	NZL +4
Ignacio Chans El Observador	NZM +23	ARG +3	NZL +20
Jake Frechette Rugby Today	NZM +10	ARG +12	NZL +15
Junior Blaber Rugby Wrap Up	NZM +20	ARG +15	NZL +17
Patrick Johnston The Province	NZM +10	ARG +15	NZL +20
Paul Tait Americas Rugby News	NZM +5	ARG +30	NZL +25
Ted Hardy Americas Rugby News	NZM +18	ARG +15	NZL +10
Victor Ramalho Portal do Rugby	NZM +12	ARG +5	NZL +22

 

USA vs NEW ZEALAND MĀORI
Friday, November 4, 19:00 Chicago

The consensus is that the Eagles will start well and fade later in the match.

BR: Playing at home will lift the Eagles and their 1st XV aren’t too bad, but there is no comparison in depth and that is a very strong Māori side. This should be reasonably close for the first hour but the Kiwis can put points on the board in a hurry once fatigue sets in.

CR: The Eagles will do better than most people think but with a largely domestic team coming up against a group of players just coming off their domestic season fitness and cohesion will be the difference.

DC: The Eagles have a good side, but are missing a number of their best professionals. This match will be exciting and provide John Mitchell the opportunity to evaluate USA depth.

DS: The Eagles front up for the first half but lose steam as Akira Ioane and Damian McKenzie run wild for the final quarter.

IC: Even with their second side, New Zealand is too much for an improved USA team that will fight but finally surrender in the last 15 minutes of the game.

JF: My hunch is that this match is close, but that the Māori will pull a way a bit in the last 20 minutes.

PJ: I’ve seen the Māori enough times over the years to know they’re always the real deal. USA has lots of growth potential ahead of RWC 2019, but they’re just starting.

PT: Packed with Super Rugby stars this Māori side is not interested in losing. Eagles nonetheless tend to always do well in such games so this game may be tight.

VR: The New Zealanders have the advantage with many young All Blacks in the squad and plenty who wish to get a place soon in the main squad. USA is improving, but it needs more time.

 

JAPAN vs ARGENTINA
Saturday, November 5, 14:40 Tokyo

With 13 uncapped players Japan have it all to do against a nearly full strength Pumas team.

BR: Personal pride is the only thing that saves this one from getting ugly. Even a jet-lagged Pumas will steamroll a way-below-strength Japanese pack.

CR: All you have to do is look at the squads to see how this one is going to end up.

DC: A strong Argentina side will face a somewhat depleted Japan side.

DS: Rejuvenated Pumas and Nicolás Sánchez put away a young, scrappy Brave Blossoms side.

IC: A tour in Japan is always difficult, especially in the first days after arriving when the jet-lag is still working (see Jaguares against Sunwolves, or Uruguay pre-World Cup). Although Japan is missing a lot of key players, it will be a very hard game for Argentina who will pull a late-game win by a penalty difference.

JF: There will smiles for the Pumas and for fans as this match will produce a couple of good tries.

PJ: It’s a long trip for the Pumas but they’re a battle-hardened bunch. There’s been too much turmoil in Japanese rugby since the World Cup.

PT: New coach for Japan versus a Pumas side that is 100% Super Rugby. Tonga match from the World Cup is worth remembering. Ultimately the Pumas will run away with this in the second half.

VR: Japan is doing an interesting job mixing youngsters with experienced players, but Argentina looks stronger than against the Wallabies, with Isa and Sánchez back.

 

 

IRELAND vs NEW ZEALAND
Saturday, November 5, 15:00 Chicago

Leave it to the new guy to think Ireland can actually win this game.

BR: I think the match in Dublin in a couple weeks will be much closer. This one, not so much. New Zealand are in record-setting form and the Irish players have been mucking about in the Pro 12 for a few weeks. If Ireland keeps it under two scores I will be impressed.

CR: It’s hard to see anyone stopping the All Blacks in the near future.

DC: The last time these teams played, New Zealand came back to win by two. New Zealand just set a new Tier 1 record for consecutive wins at 18. Ireland will be a huge test for the All Blacks, but I see New Zealand winning by a try.

DS: Loveable losers break the curse in Chicago.

IC: One of the consequences of today’s All Black superiority is that rivals often don’t even count. Their recent activity in the Rugby Championship and Bledisloe Cup against an Ireland team that hasn’t played since June will be too much difference.

JF: This seems likely to be another match that is close in the first half, but Ireland will do well to keep it close at the end.

PJ: You’re kidding, right? The All Blacks have thumped everyone and they’re only two weeks out from their Bledisloe triumph. The Irish haven’t run together in a match since June.

PT: New Zealand are far too strong for Ireland right now. The loss of second rows Retallick, Whitelock, and Romano will give the Irish an area of dominance but otherwise they will likely be outplayed, particularly in the second half.

VR: Sorry for the Irish, but 2016 does not look the year they will beat the All Blacks for the first time. The world record of 24 victories in a row will be contested by the All Blacks against the Lions next year.