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The USA Eagles just opened up their Pacific Nations Cup camp in California. The squad has an unprecedented number of professionals in the side, domestic players are being pushed harder than ever, and the pressure is on. Eagles fans are chomping at the bit to see the team win test matches. Aside from the drubbing the Eagles took from the All Blacks last year, fans have been enticed by a handful of “almost” moments.
Like when the Eagles almost came from behind to sneak one from Japan during last year’s PNC.
Or when they were one pass (or non-pass) from beating Fiji last Fall.
There have been moments over the past few years where the team has looked like they were turning the corner. Not unlike the flashes of brilliance that fans were teased with from the USA 7s team over the past few years. Just enough to get everyone excited, but not enough to make that final step towards being a true threat. The USA 7s team appears to have finally gotten over the hump. The hump to get over in 15s is probably more like a mountain in comparison though.
That’s not to say that it can’t be done. There are definitely players in camp that are fully capable of producing victories. They perform well for their professional clubs, but for whatever reason things don’t always click at the international level.
Taking a look at the Eagles PNC slate there is every reason to believe that they can win a game or two or even three. However, you can take a look at their schedule and just as easily see them lose all of their PNC games. That’s the fine line that the Eagles walk. This year’s version of the PNC is more robust than the two-match version from last year. The Eagles will get double the matches in the PNC this season and get a look at two of their World Cup opponents in the process.
First up for the USA is Samoa, who turned some heads this week by bringing what is considered an understrength side to the PNC. Perhaps as a ploy to not give too much insight into their lineup to Japan or the USA. The practice could just as easily backfire come the World Cup. Regardless, Samoa is as physical of a team as the Eagles will face over the next few months. Hard to believe that any Samoan side is weakened. The two side have only met three times ever and not a single time since the 2007 World Cup. All three matches were close affairs. Let’s hope the fourth go around is another close one.
Japan should be an exciting match to watch as the Eagles always seem to let things loose against Japan. Japan plays a fun style of rugby and should provide a real treat for the fans in California. Who can forget the Eagles comeback last season after Japan left them for dead early in the second half? This will be a match to keep a close eye on as the USA will face Japan again in England at the World Cup. In an incredibly difficult pool, Japan might be the Eagles only chance at a win. The Eagles have met Japan 21 times over the years with the Eagles winning twelve of those contests. Don’t be fooled though, most of those wins came before Japan turned around their rugby. The USA have lost five straight to Japan and haven’t beat them since 2003.
Tonga is the team that always has the USA’s number. They aren’t as powerful as Samoa, as flashy as Fiji, and not as precise as Japan, but they seem to always get the job done. They’ll provide as stern a test as the Eagles will face in the PNC. During what was considered a decent Fall tour for the Eagles last year, Tonga pounded our guys. The two sides first met in 1999 and it was the USA’s lone victory in the series.
With a look at their opponents out of the way, how about a look at the squad?
Head Coach Mike Tolkin has 32 players in his PNC camp. As the last real test run before the World Cup, one has to imagine this group is pretty close to the one that will go to England.
Strengths
Back Row – The back row is the Eagles strong point. They are deeper and stronger at that position than anywhere else on the pitch. Samu Manoa has been left out of the squad to rest and is widely considered one of the best back row players in the world. Throw in players like Scott LaValla, Cam Dolan, and Eagles 7s star Danny Barrett and you have one heck of a group. On top of that there is the aging star Todd Clever who may be making his final World Cup run after a storied career. Even a guy on the outside of the group, like John Quill, is a more than capable back row forward. The group is physical, has a high work rate, and lots of experience.
Deep Three – Another position where the Eagles have depth is in their wings and fullback. Chris Wyles cements the fullback position and is as consistent of a player as the USA has seen in recent years. Blaine Scully could just as easily play the position and excel, but finds himself on the wing. Taku Ngwenya is back in the squad. It seems like yesterday that he toasted Bryan Habana at the 2007 World Cup and put his name on everyone’s radar. Ngwenya has aged well and picked up a defensive game to go along with his amazing strike rate. Tolkin seemingly has tipped his hand with this group as he only has Brett Thompson in the squad as cover. Troy Hall is in camp, but is not on the same level as the others.
Weaknesses
Front Row/Scrum – The Achilles heel of the Eagles is the scrum. If the pack can produce some sort of consistent attacking platform from the scrum, then the Eagles could surprise some people in the PNC. With capable strike runners in the backs, all that is needed is the platform to launch them into attack. The Eagles scrum has taken heat for as long as I can remember. Now would be as good of a time as ever for them to feed their doubters some crow. Eric Fry is the man that takes the load of vitriol from fans. With a couple newer faces in camp to go along with the vets, Tolkin could work a few different combinations to try to sort things out.
Halfbacks – As with the scrum, the halfbacks have taken their share of the heat as well. More so Mike Petri at scrumhalf. A decent performer over the years, the lack of apparent open competition for the scrumhalf spot probably has most to do with Petri getting bashed. Although his kicking game has drawn its fair share of ire from pundits. Niku Kruger is in camp, as is Shalom Suniula, but I wouldn’t hold your breath if you’re waiting for Petri to be replaced. Flyhalf has been an issue for the Eagles because there has not been any sort of consistency in who plays the position. Injuries have taken Toby L’Estrange and Adam Siddall in and out of the lineup to the point where Tolkin employed scrumhalf Shalom Suniula at the position. Suniula has performed well in his time at the position. Now, AJ MacGinty enters the picture. With the World Cup right around the corner, if MacGinty is going to get a shot, he’ll need a lot of minutes in the PNC
Verdict
Here comes the hard part for someone that is also a fan. My heart wants to believe that the Eagles can win two or even three of their PNC matches. To do that though, the Eagles need at least one upset. The Eagles improve with every game they have together. That is an absolute fact. Their results every year reflect that. Barring some sort of change in trends, that probably means that they’ll struggle against Samoa.
They’ll regroup and probably play a much better match against Japan. If they can avoid falling behind early and keep the game close headed into the final quarter of the match then perhaps an upset could be in order.
Tonga is up third and could we finally be in for the close match against Tonga that we always expect? Probably. The Eagles really start to gel at this point in each assembly. Barring any injuries to key players, the Eagles could give Tonga a run for their money.
The fourth and final match of the PNC is yet to be determined, but could very well end up being Canada. Which would be great. We love playing Canada even knowing that they’re playing them a couple weeks later. They’re our arch rival and a measuring stick of sorts. Plus, the games are almost always close and exciting.
This is all, of course, contingent on what type of lineup that Tolkin uses. If he goes in working on combinations and experiments, then the Eagles could lose all their PNC matches… easily. If he is working on getting his World Cup squad plenty of game time to get the side to gel, then fans might come away happy.
Now that I’ve tap danced around my answer, I’m going to give two.
Hopeful scenario – Eagles win two and keep the others close
Pragmatic scenario – Eagles come away with one win
Stay tuned as the USA opens up their PNC schedule this weekend against Samoa!
