photo: URU

How Many World Cup 2027 Slots for the Americas?

Rugby World Cup 2027 will be expanded from 20 to 24 teams. The qualifiers will continue to be structured around World Rugby’s use of continental regions: Africa, Asia, Europe, Oceania and the Americas. This raises the question of how many slots will the Americas be granted for Rugby World Cup 2027?

The Americas is a major player in the sport of rugby. Argentina have competed at every Men’s Rugby World Cup, including reaching the Semi Finals in three of the past five tournaments. Canada played in all tournaments from 1987-2019 while the USA missed out on 1995 and 2023. Chile debuted at Rugby World Cup 2023 while the same tournament was Uruguay’s fifth Men’s Rugby World Cup.

photo credit: Christophe Archambault / AFP

 

The Americas is the only region never to host a Men’s Rugby World Cup. This will change with the USA hosting Rugby World Cup 2031. Meanwhile, Canada hosted the Women’s Rugby World Cup in 2006, the USA hosted the Sevens World Cup in 2018 and Argentina hosted in 2001. Argentina has previously sought to host Rugby World Cups only to cancel bids rather than face South Africa and France.

Rugby World Cup 2023 marked the final tournament with 20 teams. It also marked the first with three South American teams and also the first with zero from North America. The previous expansion occurred for the 1999 tournament. The move from 16 to 20 coincided with Uruguay debuting. The USA and Fiji both returned after failing to qualify for 1995 while Côte D’Ivoire competed as Africa 1.

 

Foto: World Rugby

 

The Americas will be a critical part of maximizing the means to the end of successful expansion. The best six teams not involved in Rugby World Cup 2023 were USA, Canada, Spain, Russia, Hong Kong, and the Netherlands. Russia remains suspended while, assuming the same 20 from 2023 qualify again for 2027, the USA, Canada and Spain ought to be categorized as likely to secure three of the four additional slots.

It remains to be seen whether World Rugby will repeat their mistake from the 2023 qualifiers. South America’s request for an automatic spot in Rugby World Cup Qualifying is yet to be realized. For 2023 this meant Uruguay qualified as Americas 1 by beating the USA and Chile eliminated Canada early before beating the USA in Colorado to qualify as Americas 2 and send the Eagles to repechage.

In other regions the champion qualifies. In the Americas for 2027 this may see the separation into North America and South America. This approach would  increase the probability of the USA qualifying. It would mean the USA would face Canada and qualify directly if successful. This is an absolute must from the point of World Rugby; the USA Eagles in Australia 2027 will be prioritized when drawing up the qualifying.

Does this mean that South America and North America will be split for the qualifiers in the upcoming RWC cycle? In all likelihood, yes. What then would the qualifying structure look like for the Americas? A system would divide the Americas initially before South American and North American teams go one-on-one later on.

This system would certainly see North America’s champion qualifying for Rugby World Cup 2027 as North America 1. Similarly, the South American champion would qualify as South America 1. North America 2 would advance to face a South American competitor; however, for legitimacy in the name of sport this would be South America 3 not 2.

This would mean the South American regional winner qualifies as South America 1 and the runner-up as South America 2. Thus Uruguay and Chile would qualify while South America 3 would face North America 2 in a regional play-off. The winner would advance to repechage or to the World Cup itself. Expansion to 24 suggests that the latter is entirely justified and thus Canada could qualify by beating Brazil in a regional play-off.

This system would see Brazil not eliminated but entering repechage. It would be historic for Brazil who have never made it that far. The following table summarizes the above and can be taken together as a proposal.

TEAM QUALIFY AS QUALIFYING PATHWAY
Argentina Automatic 2023 results
USA North America (NAM) 1 Win RWCQ Series vs Canada
Uruguay South America (SAM) 1 Win South America RWCQ
Chile South America (SAM) 2 2nd in South America RWCQ
Canada Pan-American Play-Off Winner Win RWCQ Series vs Brazil
Brazil Global Repechage

Earlier rounds of qualifying would involve regional qualifying in both North America and South America. This would be a continuation from previous Rugby World Cup cycles wherein winners advance to following rounds.

Take Mexico as an example. The 2019 qualifiers saw Las Serpientes facing Guyana after the former won a series against the Bahamas, Bermuda and the Cayman Islands while the latter won against Barbados, Jamaica and Trinidad & Tobago. Mexico defeated Guyana to face Colombia and ultimately be eliminated. Colombia earned the right to face Mexico after beating Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela. Paraguay then eliminated Colombia to advance to face Brazil, Chile and Uruguay.

If Paraguay could improve to regain their former superiority over Brazil then Paraguay would have a new target. Indeed, the prospect of a North America vs South America meeting in a regional play-off could mean Canada qualify by beating Brazil but in future cycles it offers a pathway for others to go further than ever before.

photo: Rugby Canada

 

Under this proposal who would be the 24 teams competing in Australia 2027? Twelve are already known. The automatic qualifiers from France 2023 are champions South Africa in addition to Argentina, Australia, England, Fiji, France, Ireland, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, Scotland, and Wales. The twelve other teams are listed below as possible qualifiers.

# POSSIBLE QUALIFIERS QUALIFY AS
1 USA North America 1 (NAM 1)
2 Uruguay South America 1 (SAM 1)
3 Chile South America 2 (SAM 2)
4 Canada Pan-American Play-Off Winner (PAN-AM W)
5 Samoa Oceania 1
6 Tonga Asia-Pacific 1
7 Namibia Africa 1
8 Georgia Europe 1
9 Portugal Europe 2
10 Spain Europe 3
11 Romania Repechage 1
12 Hong Kong Repechage 2

Under this format Africa would have 2 competitors in repechage. Namibia qualify as African champions with two others having the opportunity of joining them and South Africa in Australia 2027. This could mean an unprecedented three or more African teams at the same World Cup.

Asia would include Oceania in latter stages similar to the combination or North and South in the case of the Americas. Two teams would enter repechage from this combined region. Europe would have five entrants and the Americas 1 entrant.

This possibility would mean a Global Repechage tournament to determine the final two places at the World Cup. Under this proposal the winner would be repechage 1 and the runner-up repechage 2.

Having Brazil involved in a global repechage tournament against teams such as Kenya, Zimbabwe, Hong Kong, South Korea, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Poland, and Switzerland would be possible and something to aim for. Moreover, having Brazil host such fixtures would be a giant leap forward.

About Paul Tait

CO-FOUNDER / EDITOR / SOUTH AMERICA ... has been covering the sport since 2007. Author on web and in print. Published original works in English, Portuguese and Spanish. Ele fala português / Él habla español.

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