PNC 2024 – Japan vs USA – ARN Guide

The pool stage of the Pacific Nations Cup wraps up this weekend with knockout seedings on offer. Both the USA and Japan have booked their place in the Semi Final with wins over Canada. Saturday’s victor in Kumagaya will face Samoa next weekend in Tokyo, with the loser to square off against Fiji.

FORM GUIDE

 Current World Ranking: 14 (72.12 points)
2024-08-25 – Canada 28, Japan 55 (Vancouver)
2024-07-21 – Japan 14, Italy 42 (Sapporo)
2024-07-13 – Japan 23, Georgia 25 (Sendai)
2024-07-06 – Japan 26, NZ Māori 14 (Toyota)
2024-06-29 – Japan 10, NZ Māori 36 (Tokyo)

Current World Ranking: 19 (66.25 points)
2024-08-31 – USA 28, Canada 15 (Carson)
2024-07-12 – USA 7, Scotland 42 (Washington DC)
2024-07-05 – USA 20, Romania 22 (Chicago)
2023-11-18 – Spain 12, USA 42 (La Vila)
2023-11-11 – Brazil 3, USA 48 (La Vila)

STARTING LINEUP CHANGES

 15 Takuya Yamasawa replaces Yoshitaka Yazaki

4 Vili Helu replaces Jason Damm
9 Ruben de Haas replaces JP Smith

NOTES

• in their 24 all-time meetings the USA holds the edge with 13 wins, but the Eagles have lost seven of their last eight and haven’t succeeded against the Brave Blossoms on Japanese soil since 2000
• Eddie Jones has made just two changes to his match day squad with veteran Takuya Yamasawa coming in at fullback in place of youngster Yoshitaka Yazaki… the only other change is on the bench where World Cup select Amato Fakatava replaces Eishin Kuwano as reserve lock
• while Eagles captain Greg Peterson will be the largest man on the pitch, the Brave Blossoms will have the size advantage in the lineout with both starting locks only slightly shorter than Peterson… Warner Dearns and Sanaila Waqa made a big impact against Canada, with Dearns named Man-of-the-Match
• Scott Lawrence has also opted for continuity with two changes to the run-on side… Vili Helu swaps in for Jason Damm beside Peterson, and scrumhalf Ruben de Haas makes his return to test rugby after several months out with a knee injury
• other changes to the 23 sees Paul Mullen back in as reserve tighthead prop in place of Pono Davis, Moni Tonga’uiha providing extra loose forward cover, and JP Smith acting as backup at both halfback spots with Lawrence opting for a 6/2 split in anticipation of the steamy conditions

QUOTES

Scott Lawrence (Head Coach)

“Our discipline, our physicality and how brave we are when we take our opportunities. That’s what it will come down to.”

Greg Peterson (Captain)

“I think it will be first 20 minutes and that last 20 minutes of the game, that is very much going to be the decider. With how we play and how Japan played against Canada, you can see where the team strengths and weaknesses are. It this team starts off hot and they finish strong, we think that will be the game.”

PREDICTION

Both teams tick the continuity box and both tasted victory against the Maple Leafs, though the Brave Blossoms did so in more convincing fashion. Neither are at full strength as the two coaches continue to experiment ahead of next year’s World Cup qualifiers. On form the nod goes to the Brave Blossoms but that’s based only on the game against Canada.  Japan are the higher ranked side and are clear favorites at home.

TEAMS

JAPAN
1 Shogo Miura, 2 Atsushi Sakate (capt.), 3 Keijiro Tamefusa, 4 Sanaila Waqa, 5 Warner Dearns, 6 Tiennan Costley, 7 Kanji Shimokawa, 8 Faulua Makisi, 9 Shinobu Fujiwara, 10 Seung-Sin Lee, 11 Malo Tuitama, 12 Nik McCurran, 13 Dylan Riley, 14 Jone Naikabula, 15 Takuya Yamasawa

Replacements: 16 Mamoru Harada, 17 Takayoshi Mohara, 18 Shuhei Takeuchi, 19 Amato Fakatava, 20 Isaiah Mapusua, 21 Taiki Koyama, 22 Harumichi Tatekawa, 23 Tomoki Osada

USA
1 Jack Iscaro, 2 Kapeli Pifeleti, 3 Alex Maughan, 4 Vili Helu, 5 Greg Peterson (capt.), 6 Paddy Ryan, 7 Cory Daniel, 8 Jamason Fa’anana-Schultz, 9 Ruben de Haas, 10 Luke Carty, 11 Nate Augspurger, 12 Tommaso Boni, 13 Tavite Lopeti, 14 Conner Mooneyham, 15 Mitch Wilson

Replacements: 16 Sean McNulty, 17 Jake Turnbull, 18 Paul Mullen, 19 Jason Damm, 20 Thomas Tu’avao, 21 Moni Tonga’uiha, 22 JP Smith, 23 Dom Besag

MATCH INFO

Date: Saturday, September 7
Venue: Kumagaya Rugby Stadium, Kumagaya
Kickoff: 19:05 local (03:05 Pacific, 06:05 Eastern)
Weather Forecast: partly cloudy, 84°F (29°C), humidex 91°F (33°C), wind SE 6-9mph (10-14km/h)
Broadcasts:  JSports (Japan), Peacock (USA), RugbyPass TV

MATCH OFFICIALS

Referee: Hollie Davidson (Scotland)
Assistants: Sam Grove-White (Scotland) & Morgan White (Hong Kong)
TMO: Aaron Paterson (New Zealand)

HISTORY

HEAD-TO-HEAD (24): USA 13, Japan 10, Draw 1
2019-08-10 – Japan 34, USA 20 (Suva)
2015-10-11 – USA 18, Japan 28 (Gloucester)
2015-07-24 – USA 23, Japan 18 (Sacramento)
2014-06-14 – USA 29, Japan 37 (Carson)
2013-06-23 – Japan 38, USA 20 (Tokyo)
2011-08-21 – Japan 20, USA 14 (Tokyo)
2008-11-22 – Japan 32, USA 17 (Tokyo)
2008-11-16 – Japan 29, USA 19 (Nagoya)
2003-10-27 – Japan 26, USA 39 (Gosford)
2003-05-17 – USA 69, Japan 27 (San Francisco)