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Expansion from 20 to 24 teams for the Men’s Rugby World Cup will mean changes in qualifying. How the four new spots will be allocated remains unconfirmed. What is factual rather than speculative is that the Americas and Europe are the two most productive of World Rugby’s defined regions. Identifying potential teams for Australia 2027 that were not involved in France 2023 will require paying close attention to these areas and less so to Africa, Asia or Oceania.
Rugby World Cup 2023 was the first Men’s tournament in history to not involve Canada. It was the second to not involve the USA. The former was eliminated by Chile and the latter fell to Uruguay and Chile before being eliminated at the last hurdle by Portugal in repechage. It hit World Rugby like a ton of bricks; the USA had already been singled out and confirmed by World Rugby as hosts of Rugby World Cup 2031.
Os Lobos of Portugal earned their spot after a scandal saw Spain disqualified. This was not handled well at all by World Rugby who made eligibility allegiance changes enabling Wallaby Jack Dempsey to play for Scotland. The outcome for Spain was confusing at best and entirely unjustified at worst.
There was some consultation with Spain hosting La Vila Cup after the World Cup. Spain recorded an impressive win over Canada but was outmatched by the USA. Not all players were available; however, the four teams involved were genuinely close to being the world’s best teams who did not compete at Rugby World Cup 2023.
The best six teams not involved in Rugby World Cup were USA, Canada, Spain, Russia, Hong Kong, and the Netherlands. Will Russia be free to participate in 2027 qualifiers? At the moment the answer is no. In theory Spain, Portugal and Romania join Georgia as contenders for the Europe 1 and Europe 2 slots. Introducing Europe 3 is an absolute minimum with Europe 4 clearly also being of merit.
The Americas could be handled in a number of ways. Two options are to firstly retain the Americas as one entity or secondly to separate them as North America and South America. The latter is likely to be the preferred option because it will increase the probability of the USA qualifying. It would mean the USA would face Canada and qualify direct if successful. Make no mistake, having the USA Eagles at Rugby World Cup 2027 is the foremost priority of World Rugby when drawing up the qualifying paths.
Argentina has already qualified. Los Pumas were Semi Finalists at France 2023. This was not what saw the team qualify for the next tournament; rather, it was finishing in the top three of the pool. The twelve automatic qualifiers via this method were France, New Zealand, Italy, Ireland, South Africa, Scotland, Wales, Fiji, Australia, England, Argentina and Japan.
The twelve teams represent 50% of the competitors for Australia 2027. Uruguay qualified as Americas 1 for France 2003 and Chile did so as Americas 2. Uruguay defeated the Africa 1 qualifier (Namibia) at the World Cup. A qualifying pathway based on merit would see South America 1 and 2 both qualify as it would North America 1. South America 3 and North America 2 would both be contenders for repechage.
Canada’s win over Brazil in November indicates that if there were to be a North vs South clash that Canada would be favored to win. This may be green-lighted as the Americas Final with the winner qualifying for the World Cup and the loser entering repechage. Having Brazil involved in a global repechage tournament against teams such as Kenya, Zimbabwe, Hong Kong, South Korea, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Poland, and Switzerland would be possible and something to aim for. Moreover, having Brazil host such fixtures would be a giant leap forward.
If instituted such a repechage tournament could be contested to determine the final two places at the World Cup. Under this proposal the winner would be repechage 1 and the runner-up repechage 2. The teams competing for the two spots could be a total of ten teams who earn their spots in the tournament as follows: Africa 2 teams, Asia (including Oceania) 2 teams, Americas 1 team, and Europe 4 teams.
A sample draw is displayed below. It has attempted to divide teams according to historic tendencies. The draw will be made based on rankings two years before the tournament, meaning that a lot is unknown at this stage. Australia is listed in Pool A as the host of the tournament. On current rankings this would not be possible as Australia would be positioned in a lower band.
| POOL A | POOL B | POOL C | POOL D | POOL E | POOL F |
| Australia | France | New Zealand | South Africa | Ireland | England |
| Italy | Japan | Scotland | Argentina | Fiji | Wales |
| Europe 2 | South America 1 | Oceania 1 | Oceania 2 | North America 1 | Europe 1 |
| South America 2 | Repechage 1 | Europe 4 | Europe 3 | Africa 1 | Repechage 2 |
Who could the twelve qualifiers be? For Pool A the Europe 2 spot could mean Portugal and South America 2 could mean Chile. Pool B’s qualifiers could be Uruguay as South America 1 and Canada as either (a) the Americas Play-Off Winner or (b) Repechage 1. Samoa and Romania could be the Pool C qualifiers as Oceania 1 and Europe 4 respectively. Tonga and Spain are positioned in Pool D as Oceania 2 and Europe 3. Pool E features the USA and Namibia qualifying as the African and North American champions while Pool D sees Georgia and Hong Kong as Europe 1 and the Repechage 2 qualifier.
The following table takes in to account the above to demonstrate a sample pool for the teams once all teams have qualified. It lists Hong Kong as the one team debuting at a Rugby World Cup. This is so with Russia not allowed to complete in qualifiers. Both Canada and USA return to see the Americas with a record five teams.
| POOL A | POOL B | POOL C | POOL D | POOL E | POOL F |
| Australia | France | New Zealand | South Africa | Ireland | England |
| Italy | Japan | Scotland | Argentina | Fiji | Wales |
| Portugal | Uruguay | Samoa | Tonga | USA | Georgia |
| Chile | Canada | Romania | Spain | Namibia | Hong Kong |
