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Rugby World Cup 2023 will be the tenth men’s Rugby World Cup. Sixteen teams competed in four pools of four at the inaugural tournament in 1987. It was expanded to twenty teams competing in five pools of four for RWC 1999. It changed to four pools of five for RWC 2003 and remains so two decades later.
Teams qualify in one of three ways – (a) by hosting, (b) automatically based on results at most recent World Cup or (c) through qualifying matches that begin within regions but are followed by intercontinental play-offs and / or a repechage tournament. Twelve of the twenty RWC 2023 teams qualified via (a) or (b).
This article attempts to address seven questions. First, should the World Cup expand from 20 to 24 teams for RWC 2027? Second, should World Rugby change the qualifiers system so that few teams qualify automatically? Third, is every region fairly represented in the quantity of alloted qualifying places? Fourth, is the repechage system reputable? Fifth, how are teams performing per region in World Cup qualifiers? Sixth, have regions progressed at World Cups? Seventh, what is the outlook for each region?
Click here to consider what a 24 team Rugby World Cup could look like.
Africa
Zimbabwe was Africa’s entrant at RWC 1987 and qualified as Africa 1 for RWC 1991. South Africa debuted at RWC 1995 and Côte d’Ivoire qualified as Africa 1. Since expansion for RWC 1999 South Africa has qualified directly for every RWC and Namibia has qualified for them all as Africa 1.
Africa’s RWC qualifiers have evolved. Algeria, Botsuana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Eswatini (Swaziland) Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, Morocco, Namibia, Nigeria, Senegal, Tunisia, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe have all competed at least once since expansion post RWC 1995. The now disbanded Arabian Gulf also competed.
Namibia has progressed compared to rivals competing for Africa 1. Tunisia defeated Namibia 20-17 in 1998, 24-17 in 2002 and 24-7 in 2006. Kenya downed Namibia 30-26 in 2006 and 29-22 in 2014. Madagascar defeated Namibia 57-54 in 2012. Namibia were unbeaten in the RWC 2019 qualifiers. An understrength Namibia lost 24-13 to Côte d’Ivoire in the 2023 qualifiers but qualified with a 36-0 win over Kenya who went to repechage.
Africa 2 has never qualified for a Rugby World Cup. Tunisia were outmatched and eliminated in 2003 repechage by Spain who did not qualify. Zimbabwe competed well in 2015 in losing 23-15 to Russia who did not qualify. Kenya was the weakest competitor at the RWC 2019 and 2023 repechage tournaments.
At RWCs: Neutral. South Africa won the Rugby World Cups in 1995, 2007 and 2019. No other African team has registered a win.
Expansion RWC competitors: Namibia
Summary: Africa’s regional rugby has progressed in quantity but stalled in quality. Africa’s RWC qualifying process is among the most interesting; however, results involving Kenya and Tunisia are instances of regression against the Welwitschias. Namibia was the overwhelming favorite to qualify as Africa 1 for RWC 2019 and 2023. The Springboks only African test match outside of the World Cup was against Namibia in Cape Town in 2007.
Outlook: Negative. A lack of short-term potential for progression. There are not Africa 2 candidates ready for RWC expansion to 24 teams. In order for Africa to have a new RWC participant, that country will require High Performance Centers and / or a significant rise in playing numbers in professional leagues.
Asia
Japan has played at every Rugby World Cup. No other Asian country has qualified. Asian competitors in RWC qualifying have included Arabian Gulf, China, Guam, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Iran, Japan, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, United Arab Emirates and Uzbekistan.
Japan is undefeated in Asian RWC qualifiers since expansion for RWC 1999. Japan defeated South Korea 90-24 and 55-17 and Taiwan 155-3 and 120-0 in RWC 2003 qualifiers. The final round of RWC 2007 qualifiers saw Japan defeating Hong Kong 52–3 and South Korea 54-0. For RWC 2011 Japan defeated South Korea 71-13, Arabian Gulf 60-5, Kazakhstan 101-7 and Hong Kong 94-5. For 2015 Japan won 99-10 against the Philippines, 132-10 against Sri Lanka, 62-5 against South Korea, and 49-8 against Hong Kong.
Japan was Asia 1 for RWCs 1999-2015. Asia 2 entered repechage. For RWC 2003 Tonga qualified by defeating South Korea 75-0 and 119-0 in repechage. Tonga won 85-3 to qualify for RWC 2007. Uruguay eliminated Kazakhstan 44-7 and Hong Kong 28-3 in RWC 2011 and 2015 repechage matches.
Hong Kong won the Asian RWC qualifiers for RWCs 2019 and 2023. Hong Kong did so by beating South Korea 39-5 and 30-21 for the 2019 qualifiers and by beating Malaysia 55-10 and South Korea 23-21 for the 2023 qualifiers. Hong Kong won the RWC 2019 Asia / Oceania play-off with 26-3 and 51-0 wins against the Cook Islands. Hong Kong defeated Kenya 42-17 in repechage but lost 26-9 against Germany and 27-10 against Canada.
Hong Kong faced Tonga in the RWC 2023 Asia / Pacific Play-Off. Tonga defeated Hong Kong 44-22 to qualify for the World Cup. Hong Kong entered repechage where they won 22-18 against Kenya but missed out on the World Cup due to losing 42-14 against Portugal, and 49-7 against the USA.
At RWCs: Progression. Japan’s first win in a World Cup match was 52-8 against Zimbabwe in 1991. Japan had draws against Canada at RWCs 2007 and 2011 before shocking the world with a 34-32 win over South Africa in 2015. Japan also defeated Samoa 26-5 and the USA 28-18 at RWC 2015. Japan’s first RWC Quarter Final was a 26-3 loss against South Africa in 2019. Prior to that Japan won their group, beating Russia 30-10, Ireland 19-12, Samoa 38-19 and Scotland 28-21.
Expansion RWC competitors: None
Summary: Regional rugby in Asia has not progressed. The prospects of Asia having a second team in a RWC under the 20-team model are very low. They are increased under a 24-team model though not sufficiently; Hong Kong or South Korea are behind non-RWC 2023 teams from Europe and North America.
Outlook: Negative. A lack of short-term and long-term potential for progression. There are no Asia 2 candidates ready for RWC expansion to 24 teams. In order for Asia to have a RWC debutant, that country will require High Performance Centers and / or increased playing numbers in professional leagues. An alternative is for Russia to compete in Asia. If so, Asia would appear likely to have a second competitor at the World Cup.
Europe
England, France, Ireland, Italy, Scotland, and Wales have competed at every Rugby World Cup. Romania competed at eight of the nine until 2019 and Georgia at all since debuting in 2003. Russia has competed at two while Portugal and Spain have at one each.
European RWC qualifiers have included all of Andorra, Austria, Armenia, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Serbia (Serbia and Montenegro, FR Yugoslavia), Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and Ukraine.
Georgia defeated Russia 17-13 in their pivotal match to qualify for RWC 2003. Romania qualified after defeating RWC 1999 debutants Spain 67–6. Ireland and Italy competed in RWC 2003 qualifiers. Italy was also involved in qualifiers for RWC 2007. Romania qualified as Europe 2 and Georgia as Europe 3. Portugal defeated Morocco 10-5 and 16-15 and overcame Uruguay 24-23 on aggregate to qualify via repechage.
Georgia and Russia qualified for RWC 2011 as Europe 1 and 2 respectively. Romania qualified via repechage. The Stejarii defeated Tunisia 56-13 and improved from a 21-21 draw in Uruguay to beat Los Teros 39-12 in Bucharest.
Romania qualified as Europe 2 for RWC 2015 and Georgia as Europe 1. Russia defeated Zimbabwe 23-15 in repechage and won 22-21 in Siberia against Uruguay. Los Teros eliminated Russia with a 36-27 win in Montevideo.
Georgia’s wins over Namibia and Tonga at RWC 2015 saw the Lelos qualifying directly for RWC 2019. Belgium, Romania and Spain were disqualified for breaching eligibility laws. Russia qualified as Europe 1 and Germany overcame Portugal 16-13 to enter repechage. The Schwarze Adler were eliminated by Samoa.
Like Romania in 2019 qualifying, Spain was disqualified from RWC 2023 after having qualified for the World Cup. Romania took Spain’s spot as Europe 2 while Georgia was Europe 1. Portugal entered repechage as Europe 3. Os Lobos qualified after beating Hong Kong 42-14, Kenya 85-0 and drawing 16-16 against the USA.
At RWCs: Progression. England won the World Cup in 2003. England and France remain contenders. Wales has an improved record at World Cups since expansion. Italy has not reached a Quarter Final with unfavorable draws partly to blame. Scotland had better results before than since expansion. Ireland ended 2022 ranked best in the world. Romania have regressed but remain of a RWC standard. Georgia is among the world’s most improved teams since expansion.
Expansion RWC competitors: Georgia, Portugal, Russia, Spain
Summary: Rugby Europe is a success story. Six Nations expansion will continue to be debated while an alternative merits being green lighted. There are grounds for genuine RWC qualifiers in the form of a European Cup. This means a tournament with a champion crowned featuring ten or more teams, including all of the Six Nations. A home-and-away format would enable fixtures such as Spain vs Ireland in Bilbao, Romania vs France in Bucharest, Portugal vs Italy in Lisbon and Georgia vs Wales in Tbilisi. Under such an arrangement a minimum of eight places at the World Cup would be on the line.
Outlook: Highly positive. Excellent short and long-term potential for progression. Georgia are now a challenge for Tier 1 opposition and can produce upsets. With in-house governance organized Spain will qualify for an expanded RWC and are a strong candidate under the 20-team model. Romania, Russia and Portugal are also all RWC 24-team standard participants. Belgium, Germany, Netherlands and Poland have long-term potential.
Oceania
Australia and New Zealand have competed at every Rugby World Cup and, combined they won five of the nine RWCs from 1987-2019. Samoa was not invited to RWC 1987, Tonga did not qualify for RWC 1991 and Fiji did not qualify for RWC 1995. Since expansion following RWC 1995 all five have competed at every subsequent Rugby World Cup.
Oceania’s qualifying outcomes have not changed since the World Cup was expanded for RWC 1999. The Cook Islands, Niue, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Tahiti and Vanuatu have all competed in qualifiers but Fiji, Samoa and Tonga do not face the possibility of missing out on a World Cup. Australia and New Zealand remain unchallenged as the region’s very best.
Australia had to qualify for RWC 1999 while New Zealand has always qualified automatically. Changes from one RWC to the next have seen Fiji, Samoa and Tonga qualifying differently but always without being genuinely challenged.
Tonga qualified the long-way for RWCs 2003 and 2007. Tonga defeated Papua New Guinea 47-14 and 84-12 in RWC 2003 qualifiers and defeated the Cook Islands 77-10 and 90-0 in RWC 2007 qualifiers. Samoa defeated Papua New Guinea 115–7 and 73-12 in RWC 2011 qualifiers. Fiji defeated the Cook Islands 108-6 in a RWC 2015 qualifier.
For RWC 2019, the long-way to the World Cup saw Samoa facing Germany home-and-away. Samoa won 66–15, and 42-28 to qualify. The Cook Islands lost 51–0 and 26-3 to Hong Kong to be eliminated. Tonga defeated the Cook Islands 54-10 in an Oceania qualifier for RWC 2023 and Hong Kong 44-22 in the Asia-Pacific play-off to qualify.
At RWCs: Regression. The Wallabies have regressed since winning RWC 1999, particularly since losing the final to New Zealand in 2015. New Zealand progressed from 1999 to win in 2011 and 2015. Fiji reached the Quarter Finals in 1987 and 2007. Samoa reached the Quarter Finals in 1991 and 1995. Tonga is yet to play in a Quarter Final. Former Samoa player Dan Leo campaigned for World Rugby to change player eligibility laws. Consequently, former All Blacks and Wallabies now play for Pacific Islands’ test teams.
Expansion RWC competitors: None
Summary: Regional rugby in Oceania has not progressed. No future RWC participants can be identified from the Cook Islands, Niue, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Tahiti, or Vanuatu. None of them have realistic chances of qualifying in the event that the World Cup expands to 24 teams.
Outlook: Negative. No short or longterm potential for progression. No new RWC participant can be identified from Oceania. RWC expansion would not see a sixth Oceania participant. Immense potential does exist for innovation involving Oceania’s RWC regulars. A Five Nations Oceania Cup every four years that doubles as RWC qualifying could be highly successful. Japan could and should also compete. Home-and-away RWC qualifiers of this nature could reshape the region to provide it with a structure consisting of both solid financial and sporting potential.
North America
The qualifying process has altered but World Rugby have continued to lump North America and South America together for RWC qualifiers. RWC 2023 was the first since 2003 without automatic qualification for the North American winner.
Competitors from North America have included Bahamas, Barbados, Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Guyana, Jamaica, Mexico, Saint Lucia, St. Vincent & the Grenadines and Trinidad & Tobago. RWC 2007 was the only time in which the winner played against Canada and the USA. Barbados fell 69-3 to Canada and 91-0 to the USA. Canada qualified directly while the USA overcame Uruguay to qualify two months later.
The RWC 2003 qualifiers featured a Four Nations between Canada, USA, Chile and Uruguay. Canada and Uruguay qualified for the World Cup. The USA entered repechage while Chile was competitive in being eliminated with two wins. The USA defeated Spain 63-12 and 58-13 to qualify.
Trinidad & Tobago defeated Guyana to take-on Brazil in RWC 2011 qualifiers. Brazil won 31-8 and 24-12. Canada lost 12-6 to the USA but qualified as the North American champion with a 41-18 home win. The USA secured their spot by beating Uruguay in the North vs South Finals for Americas 2. It was similar for 2015 with Canada winning 27-9 and 13-11 to qualify. The USA were series winners over Uruguay to qualify as Americas 2.
2019 was different; the USA qualified as the North American winner for the first time. Before then Mexico beat Guyana 32-3 to advance to face Colombia. The 29-11 loss to Los Tucanes saw Mexico eliminated. Canada lost 38-29 and 32-31 to Uruguay to miss out on Americas 2 and thus face Germany, Hong Kong and Kenya to qualify for the World Cup.
There were no early rounds in the Americas qualifiers for RWC 2023. The first two matches saw Canada and the USA splitting their series. The outcome meant USA faced Uruguay and Canada faced Chile. The end of the North American winner to the World Cup proved fatal. Uruguay overcame the USA to qualify as Americas 1 in 2021. Chile eliminated Canada in 2021 and shocked the USA in 2022 to send the Eagles to repechage. The USA easily defeated Hong Kong and Kenya but drew against Portugal. Os Lobos qualified on aggregate.
At RWCs: Regression. RWC 2023 will be the first without a North American competitor. This is in part a result of World Rugby combining North America and South America for Americas 1 and 2. Canada reached the Quarter Finals in 1991 but has regressed since expansion. The USA has marginally improved since missing RWC 1995.
Expansion RWC competitors: none
Summary: Regional rugby in North America has regressed. Canada has been unable to repeat the heights of RWC 1991 and has fallen notably since RWC 2011. Failures culminated in both Canada and the USA not qualifying for RWC 2023. Moving forward both need each-other and South America equally. The lack of the Americas Rugby Championship (ARC) during the RWC 2019-2023 cycle was vital. North America must now ask World Rugby for a direct spot equal to that of Africa 1.
Outlook: Neutral. Both Canada and the USA are expected to recover; they ought to be considered as realistic for a 24 team World Cup. The prospects of a new North American competitor at a future Rugby World Cup with or without expansion is extremely low. Mexico progressed well during the RWC 2015-2019 cycle. A professional Mexican team has been discussed.
South America
South America has been represented by Argentina at every Rugby World Cup. Uruguay debuted in 1999 and 2023 will be the country’s fifth and it will see Chile debuting. Argentina had to qualify for RWC 2007 and did so by defeating Chile and Uruguay.
Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guatemala, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela have all competed in South American RWC qualifiers at least once since expansion post RWC 1995.
World Rugby repeatedly turned down South America’s request for a direct spot for the South American champion at the World Cup. If South America does not have a direct spot then why does Africa 1?
South American teams are unbeaten against North American teams in lower tier RWC qualifiers. Chile defeated Trinidad & Tobago 35-6 and Bermuda 65-8 in 1999 qualifiers. Brazil defeated Trinidad & Tobago 11-10 and 9-0 in 2003 qualifiers and 31-8 and 21-12 in RWC 2011 qualifiers. Paraguay defeated Bermuda 29-14 in RWC 2015 qualifiers and Colombia defeated Mexico 29-11 in RWC 2019 qualifiers.
Canada qualified as Americas 1 for RWC 2003 by winning the Four Nations. For RWCs 2011 and 2015, however, Canada qualified as Americas 1 without facing South American opposition. The USA qualified as Americas 1 for RWC 2019 without facing South American countries.
Uruguay overtook Canada during the RWC 2019 cycle while the USA fell to Uruguay and Chile during the RWC 2023 cycle. The 2019-2023 cycle is the first in which South America’s 2nd and 3rd best teams are officially above North America’s top two.
In addition to the comparison with Africa 1, the RWC 2023 Americas results suggest that the format should change. One possibility is for the Americas Rugby Championship (ARC) to double as RWC qualifiers. Los Pumas could be joined by North and South American qualifiers; for example, Canada, USA, Uruguay, Chile, and Brazil. The top four could qualify for a 24-team World Cup and those who miss out could enter repechage.
At RWCs: Progression. Argentina has played in two World Cup Semi Finals since RWC 1999. Uruguay has wins over Spain, Georgia and Fiji at World Cups and is now an established competitor. Chile is the world’s first RWC debutant since Russia at RWC 2011.
Expansion RWC competitors: Chile and Uruguay
Summary: South America is a success story. Regional rugby has made notable progress. Brazil, Colombia and Paraguay all have potential and a pathway to develop. Brazil’s progression during the RWC 2015-2019 cycle stalled and the team has regressed during the RWC 2019-2023 cycle. Paraguay improved to recover from losses against Colombia during the previous cycle.
Outlook: Positive. Excellent short and longterm potential for progression. Chile and Uruguay implemented high Performance models and others may follow. Brazil’s lack of junior players is a major roadblock. Paraguay are progressing and represent a country on the rise. With sustained High Performance and junior investments Colombia has potential over the long-term.
