Preview: Australia vs Argentina

Australia play host to Argentina in the final round of the 2021 Rugby Championship on Saturday. The fortunes of the teams differs substantially; Argentina are winless while Australia turned around a slow start to now be on a winning-streak. The Wallabies will enter the field on a three match winning-streak.

Back-to-back Wallaby wins over South Africa were followed by a convincing victory last Saturday over Argentina. The results have Australia in second place of the Rugby Championship on 13 points, two more so than South Africa. Los Pumas cannot finish higher than bottom; a notable outcome following their second place finish in the 2020 Tri Nations.

A combination of factors have plagued Argentina in the 2021 Rugby Championship. Two of them are unavoidable – no home matches, and rugby’s lack of a global season. Others can be identified, four of which have contributed to the team finishing second best in all five matches thus far. Poor openings, losing the contact battle, injuries, and a lack of offense.

Slow starts against South Africa saw Los Pumas trailing 21-9 and 15-3 at halftime. The issue continued against New Zealand as the All Blacks held 22-0 and 24-3 half time leads. Australia also started strongly, holding a 17-3 halftime lead last weekend.

Losing matches can result in changes from one match to the next. Mario Ledesma has done so, opting to rotate players throughout the competition. His selections have also been influenced by injuries. Tomás Lezana and Nicolás Sánchez are the latest out of the tournament through injuries. On the flip side Ledesma welcomes back Rodrigo Bruni and Matías Moroni for the Rugby Championship finale.

Bruni replaces Pablo Matera. The former captain and five others miss out following a preventable travel violation. He had been expected to start as had Santiago Medrano. Instead Enrique Pieretto will have his first start of the competition. Francisco Gorrissen will make his first tournament appearance of the year as flanker cover from the bench. Additional changes see uncapped props Eduardo Bello and Thomas Gallo among the replacements.

Matera has been a cornerstone of Los Pumas. His 77 caps are the most of all forwards on the roster. A strength of Matera’s game is his defense; the same area has been a hallmark of Pumas victories throughout his test career. The slow starts in 2021 have underlined a weakness in this area. It can be narrowed done to a key area of losing the contact percentages. Australia, like South Africa and New Zealand before them, were able to outmuscle Los Pumas in the tackle and ruck areas.

A comparative lack of possession and territory has meant fewer scoring opportunities. Tries have been hard to come by with 3 from 5 matches thus far. Goal-kicking has also been problematic; Emiliano Boffelli kicked 1 from 4 last week.

Australia’s winning streak has involved both more tries and more accurate goal-kicking. The Wallabies have also won the majority of battles in the contact area, have been able to change players by choice not need, and have the added benefit of playing on home soil. In short, while little has been going well for Argentina, a lot has been going well for Australia.

The pressure is on the South Americans. This is further evident in considering the Wallabies lineup. For instance, Matt Philip is rotated to enable a second-row of Darcy Swain and Izack Rodda. Pete Samu starts at flanker and Jordan Petaia replaces Marika Koroibete on the wing. 27-year-old Sean McMahon is back for his first cap since 2017. He will cover flanker from the bench.

Though the Rugby Championship itself has already been decided there is still pride on the line for all four teams. Los Pumas are aiming to avoid a goose egg in the win column, while the Springboks are the only obstacle that can possibly stop the All Blacks from a clean sweep. According to Sports Betting Dime, Australia are 12.5-point favorites for the first match while New Zealand are 9.5-point favorites in the latter.

Kickoff is set for 5pm local time, 4am in Buenos Aires. A live broadcast will be available on ESPN 2 in Argentina.

AUSTRALIA
1 James Slipper, 2 Folau Fainga’a, 3 Taniela Tupou, 4 Izack Rodda, 5 Darcy Swain, 6 Pete Samu, 7 Michael Hooper (capt.), 8 Rob Valetini, 9 Nic White, 10 Quade Cooper, 11 Andrew Kellaway, 12 Samu Kerevi, 13 Len Ikitau, 14 Jordan Petaia, 15 Reece Hodge

Replacements: 16 Lachlan Lonergan, 17 Angus Bell, 18 Greg Holmes, 19 Matt Philip, 20 Sean McMahon, 21 Jake Gordon, 22 James O’Connor, 23 Tom Wright

ARGENTINA
1 Rodrigo Martínez, 2 Julián Montoya (capt.), 3 Enrique Pieretto, 4 Guido Petti, 5 Tomás Lavanini, 6 Juan Martín González, 7 Marcos Kremer, 8 Rodrigo Bruni, 9 Gonzalo Bertranou, 10 Santiago Carreras, 11 Emiliano Boffelli, 12 Santiago Chocobares, 13 Lucio Cinti, 14 Matías Moroni, 15 Juan Cruz Mallía

Replacements: 16 Facundo Bosch, 17 Thomas Gallo, 18 Eduardo Bello, 19 Matías Alemanno, 20 Francisco Gorrissen, 21 Gonzalo García, 22 Domingo Miotti, 23 Mateo Carreras

Date: Saturday, October 2
Venue: CBUS Super Stadium, Gold Coast
Kickoff: 17:00 local (04:00 Argentina)
Referee: Jaco Peyper (South Africa)
Assistant Referees: Nic Berry (Australia); Jordan Way (Australia)
TMO: James Leckie (Australia)
Broadcasts: ESPN 2 (Argentina)

RECENT RESULTS
2021/09/25 – Australia 27, Argentina 08 (Townsville, Australia)
2020/12/05 – Australia 16, Argentina 16 (Sydney, Australia)
2020/11/21 – Australia 15, Argentina 15 (Newcastle, Australia)
2019/07/27 – Australia 19, Argentina 10 (Brisbane, Australia)
2018/10/06 – Argentina 34, Australia 45 (Salta, Argentina)
2018/09/15 – Australia 19, Argentina 23 (Gold Coast, Australia)
2017/10/07 – Argentina 20, Australia 37 (Mendoza, Argentina)
2017/09/16 – Australia 45, Argentina 20 (Canberra, Australia)
2016/10/08 – Argentina 21, Australia 33 (London, UK)
2016/09/17 – Australia 36, Argentina 20 (Perth, Australia)
2015/10/25 – Australia 29, Argentina 15 (London, UK)
2015/07/25 – Argentina 9, Australia 34 (Mendoza, Argentina)

OVERALL RESULTS
Australia Wins 26
Argentina Wins 6
Draws 3