World Cup Watch – Canada – January 12, 2021

When Canada finally takes the field to play a test match in the third quarter of 2021 it will have been nearly two years since their last on October 8, 2019. A solitary high performance camp held in November under a virtual media ban will have been their only in-person assembly since the Rugby World Cup in Japan came to a close.

Under normal circumstances the team might have played 15 matches between the Americas Rugby Championship and touring fixtures, but none of that has taken place and the ARC is now teetering on extinction, or at the very least a significant hiatus. As a result Kingsley Jones will enter the RWC 2023 qualifying series against the USA with few if any warm-up matches and precious little time to work with new combinations.

To be sure there will be significant changes to the squad. The talk from the camp is of a ‘reset’ that almost certainly spells an end to the test careers of anyone over the age of 30. Evidence of this can be seen at at Langford camp where Patrick Parfrey was the oldest player in attendance at a newly-minted 29. How many of the late-20’s group are retained is yet to be seen. One suspects there will be some surprises when a roster is identified mid-year.

In the midst of a transition phase it’s far too early to guess at what the squad for France might look like, and indeed Canada has the task of qualifying first. As was the case for 2019 they will have to defeat either the USA or a top South American challenger, otherwise a spot can be earned through the Repechage tournament. Assuming there are no more eligibility scandals in Europe the latter route will be less easily traversed this time around.

As such our World Cup Watch begins with the squad as it might look for the qualifying series against the USA, with late August a possible timeline. The below selection attempts to stay as objective as possible, comprised of the match day 23 that faced South Africa less players who are retired or no longer in contention. In each case players are ‘promoted’ by seniority.

Given the majority of Canada’s player pool now resides in Major League Rugby, changes can be made based on club form during that competition, or if an official long list is defined by the national selectors. For the purposes of this exercise players currently committed to Olympic Sevens preparations are not considered despite some being included in the Langford training camp.

 

CANADA

##

NAME

CLUB

POS

CAPS

 

FIRST XV

1	Djustice Sears-Duru	Seattle Seawolves	LH	52
2	Andrew Quattrin	Toronto Arrows	HO	5
3	Jake Ilnicki	Seattle Seawolves	TH	38
4	Evan Olmstead	Biarritz (FR)	LO	33
5	Kyle Baillie	NOLA Gold	LO	29
6	Lucas Rumball	Toronto Arrows	FL	35
7	Matt Heaton	Rugby ATL	FL	28
8	Tyler Ardron (c)	Castres (FR)	N8	37
9	Andrew Ferguson	Toronto Arrows	SH	10
10	Peter Nelson	Bressane (FR)	FH / FB	7
11	Taylor Paris	Oyonnax (FR)	WI	28
12	Guiseppe du Toit	Toronto Arrows	CE	14
13	Ben LeSage	Toronto Arrows	CE	16
14	Jeff Hassler	Austin Gilgronis	WI	27
15	Patrick Parfrey	Toronto Arrows	FB	32

DJ Sears-Duru moves up into the vacancy left by the retirement of Hubert Buydens. It should be noted that Matt Tierney is now being used on both sides of the scrum by Castres and should therefore be considered an option at loosehead as well. Andrew Quattrin is the incumbent at hooker where there are three senior competitors.

The halfbacks remain unsettled, and a new direction entirely will be required at scrumhalf at the very least. None of the three No9s who traveled to Japan are in the frame so Andrew Ferguson jumps from outsider to starter as the next senior international. The rapid rise of Will Percillier, among others, ensures competition for the top job.

Peter Nelson meanwhile has played only once at the professional level since the World Cup and he will need meaningful game time in the coming months to retain the No10 shirt. Nick Blevins and Ciaran Hearn drop out of the running in the midfield, DTH van der Merwe has retired from test rugby, while Andrew Coe and Theo Sauder are with the sevens program and thus not considered for now but will come into contention post-Tokyo.

 

REPLACEMENTS

16	Eric Howard	NOLA Gold	HO	25
17	Matt Tierney	Castres (FR)	LH / TH	22
18	Cole Keith	Toronto Arrows	TH	16
19	Josh Larsen	New England Free Jacks	LO	15
20	Luke Campbell		N8 / FL	13
21	Will Percillier	Stade Français (FR)	SH	2
22	Shane O’Leary	Rouen Normandie (FR)	FH	14
23	Doug Fraser	Old Glory DC	CE / WI	4

At least one of not all three of the front row reserves can be expected to move up into a starting spot on form. Tierney is selected as a loosehead with both Jake Ilnicki and Cole Keith tighthead specialists. Mike Sheppard is likely out of the running so Luke Campbell moves up but his place is contingent on signing an MLR deal, and even then is under pressure with a number of young candidates emerging to compete for back row spots.

Shane O’Leary is getting regular game time in the Pro D2, albeit for a team on the lower end of the ladder. On paper this puts him ahead of Nelson but the selectors have not smiled in his direction often. Doug Fraser’s fine form with Old Glory and ability to cover both the midfield and wing makes him an ideal candidate for the No23 shirt.

 

TRAVELING RESERVES

24	Jordan Olsen	Northland (NZ)	HO	–
25	Liam Murray	Houston SaberCats	LH	–
26	Conor Keys	Rugby ATL	LO	18
27	Nakai Penny	Seattle Seawolves	FL	3
28	Travis Larsen	San Diego Legion	N8 / FL	–
29	Jason Higgins	Toronto Arrows	SH	–
30	George Barton	Seattle Seawolves	CE	2
31	Kainoa Lloyd		WI	11

Northland captain Jordan Olsen takes the third hooker spot left by Benoît Pifféro’s international retirement. Liam Murray is the next senior loosehead prop with Rob Brouwer also well beyond the 30-year cut-off and Noah Barker seemingly stepping away from elite level rugby. Dustin Dobravsky falls out of contention with Nakai Penny and Travis Larsen moving up, the latter recently making the move to San Diego from DC.

Jason Higgins is a new name at scrumhalf, Irish-born but Canadian-qualified who attended the recent identification camp. George Barton has done well for Seattle but like O’Leary has been largely overlooked by national selectors. Kainoa Lloyd falls in the same boat as Campbell and Larsen, hanging on by a thread and seemingly on the fringes of the sevens camp but also currently without an MLR contract.

 

NON-TRAVELING RESERVES

32	Steven Ng	Toronto Arrows	HO	–
33	Marc-Antoine Ouellet	Toronto Arrows	LH / TH	–
34	Tyler Rowland	Toronto Arrows	TH	–
35	Reegan O’Gorman	Austin Gilgronis	LO	4
36	Matt Beukeboom	Montauban (FR)	FL / LO	3
37	Corey Thomas	LA Giltinis	N8 / FL	–
38	Fraser Hurst	Utah Warriors	SH	–
39	Will Kelly	Toronto Arrows	FH	1
40	Josh Thiel	San Diego Legion	CE	1
41	Cole Davis	Austin Gilgronis	WI	5
42	Robbie Povey	Houston SaberCats	FB / FH	4

Hooker has a reasonable succession line in place including Steven Ng and Jack McRogers with the Arrows, and UBC standout Connor Sampson. Prop is not so populous and likely Canada’s biggest concern at the moment. Nik Hildebrand has signed for Houston and it’s not clear yet which side of the scrum Toronto sees Marc-Antoine Ouellet’s future. Barker’s absence is keenly felt here and Canada could do with some alternatives abroad such as Scotland-based Conor Young.

Second row looks to be an area of relative strength, at least in numbers. A fully-fit Reegan O’Gorman will be in contention for the senior squad, while new Arrows addition Adrian Wadden and u20 standout Frank Carson were both at the Langford camp. Don’t be surprised if Tyler Duguid gets an immediate call-up as he turns heads with the Montpellier academy, with a Top 14 debut now within reach.

Matt Beukeboom is already capped on the blindside flank and should be in contention. He is out of contract at end of season and it remains to be seen if he stays in France or opts for MLR next season. Corey Thomas has only just been revealed as eligible for Canada. His size, versatility, and experience in both the Top League and briefly Super Rugby makes him a player of interest for the selectors.

Austin’s Moe Abdelmonem might have been capped in 2020 but now faces a growing list of contenders at openside flanker. Two back rows tipped for success in the not-too-distant future are Arrows newcomer Siaki Vikilani and UBC grad Michael Smith, the latter set to join MLR in 2021 with more than offer on the table. Rangy blindside Quentin James is another name in the Stade Français academy who selectors will be keeping tabs on.

Fraser Hurst’s national u20 selection makes him the next senior scrumhalf option with Jorden Sandover-Best focused on his career outside of rugby. Hurst is bound for Utah but was not at the Langford camp. Instead it was Houston signing Crosby Stewart and youngsters Brock Gallagher and Ross Braude who were looked over by Jones and Rob Howley. The latter is a South Africa Schools cap eligible for Canada who also has a standing offer from an MLR side.

Will Kelly looks to be the heir apparent at the problematic No10 spot but remains inexperienced at the MLR level. Robbie Povey has also signed on as a 10/15 option at Houston. Cooper Coats and Brock Webster were in attendance at Langford but are currently locked into the sevens program.

The frontrunners in the midfield are clearly Arrows pair du Toit and LeSage but they face challenges even internally from Spencer Jones and Mitch Richardson. Josh Thiel has-resigned with San Diego and with one cap is the next senior option, while Quinn Ngawati was in Langford and his progress will be closely monitored with Rugby United New York.

 

As above, expected this list to change dramatically over the next 12 months as new names break through and the selectors navigate the RWC qualification process. The good news is a record number of Canadians will be involved in MLR this season which creates unprecedented competition for spots.

A detailed and expanded player pool can be seen here.