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The draw for RWC 2019 is just days away. The draw will take place on December 14 in Paris. World Rugby determined that 2020 rankings will not be considered. Instead, the official rankings from the start of 2020 have been implemented to seed the participants.
The decision means that no results this year count towards RWC 2023 seeding. The policy has favored some and harmed others. The biggest winners are Wales who are seeded in the top four with England, New Zealand and South Africa. Wales cannot face any of the three teams in pool play for this reason. Wales are currently ranked two categories lower.
Japan has also benefitted by the January 2020 seeding decision. The Asian country is ranked 10th in the world, one spot below Wales. Japan will, however, join Australia, France, and Ireland in Band 2. Australia, France, and Ireland ought to all be above Wales. Moreover, France are currently 4th in the world; Les Blues should thus be in the Band 1 pot.
The RWC 2023 seedings have Scotland and Argentina in Band 3. On the day of the draw they are ranked 7th an 8th in the world. Needless to say, both are disadvantaged by the draw. The same applies to teams drawn against them rather than Fiji and Italy who are correctly ranked as Band 3 teams.
Band 1: South Africa, New Zealand, England, Wales
Band 2: Ireland, France, Australia, Japan
Band 3: Scotland, Argentina, Fiji, Italy
Band 4: Americas 1, Americas 2, Europe 1, Europe 2
Band 5: Africa 1, Oceania 1, Asia / Pacific 1, Final Qualifier Winner
The draw is of interest to all teams; both the sixteen pre-qualified team and potential competitors face gains or losses from the draw. Of the 20 participants all Band members could face any team from the other bands. Put differently, there are 16 scenarios.
Take RWC 2019 champions as an example. South Africa cannot face England, New Zealand or Wales in their pool The Springboks can, however, face any of the sixteen other teams. The four matches will be against one team per band.
What then is South Africa’s (a) best scenario, (b) worst scenario, and (c) fairest scenario? What about the eleven other teams?
Best Scenarios
There are a number of ways to determine favorable and unfavorable scenarios. Among them are rankings, recent results, long-term tendencies and RWC results. There is an additional important factor of verification.
For South Africa this means that on the surface the ideal draw would be with France and Fiji. Such an outcome is, however, not the best scenario. On the one hand, Japan’s RWC 2015 win over South Africa was the first test match between the sides. The Springboks won both 2019 matches to thus have a 2-1 record. France last faced South Africa in 2018 and last defeated the Springboks in 2009. On the other hand, France will playing at home and the youth in the team suggests that team is definitely stronger post RWC 2019 than before. In short, Japan, not France are South Africa’s ideal Band 2 opponent.
France’s best scenario would be to be drawn together with Wales, and Italy. France has performed better against these two teams than the remaining sides in the respective bands. The current and probable rankings between now and RWC 2023 also indicate that they would be France’s favored opposition. Meanwhile, Argentina’s best scenario would see Los Pumas in a group involving Wales, and Japan.
Worst Scenarios
What then would be the worst scenario for the three above mentioned countries? In terms of numbers South Africa’s worst scenario would be Ireland and Argentina. These two have performed better against South Africa in recent matches than have the others. However, France ought to be noted as South Africa’s Band 2 team to avoid. I would suggest that facing an improved France in Paris in RWC 2023 qualifies as a more difficult prospect than facing Australia or Ireland.
France vs South Africa is the worst prospect from a French standpoint. Les Blues have performed better against England, New Zealand, and Wales than against South Africa. Is it a technicality? Perhaps; indeed patterns indicate that the All Blacks are the team to avoid the most. France have losses against all Band 3 teams. Argentina qualifies as the team for France to avoid based on results, 2020 performances and what happened at RWC 2007.
Match results indicate that Argentina’s worst scenario is to face England, and Ireland. Los Pumas have not beaten England since 2009 and Ireland have had the wood on Argentina outside of RWCs for three RWC cycles. At RWCs performances are different. There is reason to suggest that New Zealand and France or Australia are Argentina’s genuine teams to avoid.
Fairest Scenarios
Of all scenarios the fairest is that with the greatest balance; teams would be spread as evenly as possible. This would arguably mean that there would not be a pool with three Tri Nations countries and that Wales would not be drawn in the same pool as Japan and also not with Fiji or Italy. The former is a 75% chance and the latter a 50% chance.
World Rugby has attempted to balance Bands 4 and 5. Africa 1, for instance was a Band 4 team for the RWC 2019 draw.
The Band 4 and Band 5 qualifiers remain unconfirmed. To simplify matters the current rankings indicate possible qualifiers The current rankings (December 06 2020) suggest that they teams will be Georgia (Europe 1), Tonga (Oceania 1), Samoa (Asia / Pacific 1), USA (Americas 1), Spain (Europe 2), Uruguay (Americas 2), Romania (Final Qualifier Winner).
The RWC 2023 qualifiers may replicate rankings; only time will tell. It is too early to be making projections. Canada, USA, Namibia, Samoa, and Tonga are yet to play since RWC 2019.
The following table illustrates the fairest scenario for Monday’s RWC 2023 draw.
| POOL A | POOL B | POOL C | POOL D |
| New Zealand | South Africa | England | Wales |
| Japan | Ireland | Australia | France |
| Scotland | Fiji | Italy | Argentina |
| Europe 2 | Europe 1 | Americas 2 | Americas 1 |
| Asia / Pacific 1 | Final Qualifier Winner | Oceania 1 | Africa 1 |
