Pool of Death or Luck: Argentina’s RWC 2023 Draw Possibilities

Argentina are in Band 3 for the RWC 2023 draw. What then does this mean for Los Pumas’ tournament possibilities? Alejo Miranda notes that there are a number of scenarios, a total of 16 to be exact.

The draw will take place on December 14 in Paris. World Rugby has determined that 2020 rankings will not be considered. Instead, the official rankings from the turn of the year will be utilized. This decision means that Argentina cannot improve on its position. For the first time ever Rugby Championship matches will not count towards rankings.

The rankings divide the pre-qualified teams into three bands of four. Argentina cannot be drawn in the same pool as another country from Band 3. In other words, Los Pumas will not face Fiji, Italy, or Scotland in France 2023.

Argentina will, however, face one team from Band 1 and one from Band 2. This corresponds to a 100% chance of a Tier 1 opponent from Band 1 and a 75% chance of two Tier 2 opponents. Put differently, buckle-up for a Pool of Death.

The only scenario wherein Argentina do not have two Tier 1 opponents is if Argentina were to be drawn in the same pool as Japan.

Japan join Australia, Ireland, and RWC 2023 hosts France in Band 2. France will thereby not be able to face any of these three teams in the tournament opener. There could be a Les Bleus vs Argentina match. Officially, there is a 25% chance of the teams being in the same pool.

Band 1 contains reigning champions South Africa in addition to England, New Zealand, and Wales. One will be drawn to face Argentina. There are no ideal scenarios, though based on Band 1 avoiding New Zealand and South Africa may be paramount. There is a 50% chance of facing one of them.

Are there other scenarios to avoid? Yes. In Band 4 the Europe 1 qualify is arguably going to be the toughest opponent. That team looms as being Georgia.