Forward Thinking (Vol 5, Iss 1): How Would a 24-Team RWC Operate?

The weekend’s test match results have given optimism to expanding the RWC from 20 to 24 teams. RWC 2019 competitors Canada and Russia suffered losses to non-RWC 2019 competitors, Brazil and Spain respectively.

SPORTING

Canada claimed the final spot at RWC 2019, doing so after having been sent into repechage by Uruguay. There they took-on Germany, Hong Kong, and Kenya winning all three games albeit having genuine contests against both Germany, and Hong Kong.

In mid-2018 Germany troubled Samoa in their home match in their RWC Play-Off. Ironically off-field issues had seen Germany struggling in the European qualifiers yet they were clear winners over Kenya, Africa’s second best in the process following Namibia.

When Canada play Namibia in RWC 2019 it will be the third test between the countries and it will again be played on a neutral ground. In the five years since their match in Wales the Canadians have furthered their range of opponents while Namibia have rarely played outside of Africa.

Canada’s loss to Brazil happened to be the second defeat in three years. Over this period the Canadians have also suffered four consecutive defeats against Uruguay, a home defeat against Russia, and Los Teros have won a two match series 2-0 in Namibia in 2017. All told Canada will go into Kamaishi, Japan as favorites.

FINANCES

With four additional places at a RWC the tournament would become more expensive to host yet it would become more lucrative, with increased visitors contributing to the local economy, and through broadcasting marketability. Of note is that there would be additional knock-out matches. More on that latter.

It is fair to suggest that new teams would bring larger audiences – both in visiting numbers and via television. This is supported by noting that ten of the RWC 2019 competitors have populations below 7 million and three of them below 1 million.

Under contemporary circumstances the favorites to add to the 20 teams at RWC 2019 can be identified as Brazil, Chile, Germany, Hong Kong, Kenya, Romania, and Spain. They are from World Rugby’s existing regions and have demonstrated themselves as being contenders should there be additional RWC places.

COUNTRY	POPULATION
Brazil	206 million
Chile	18 million
Germany	80 million
Hong Kong	7 million
Kenya	48 million
Romania	21 million
Spain	49 million

As demonstrated in the table the listed countries’ populations are not small. Expanding to 24 teams would thereby logically expand the market into larger countries than is the norm under the present model. It would also see direct exposure for some of sport’s largest markets in the world, notably Brazil, Germany, and Spain.

FORMAT

There are a range of possibilities as to the tournament format but I will simplify this to nominate two of them: (a) Pools 4 of 6 or (b) 6 pools of 4. Other possibilities are far less likely which narrows the field considerably. Of options (a) and (b) it is evident that (b) is of the greater interests as it would not add time to the existing length of a RWC while it would add an additional round in the knock-out phase.

Canada, Namibia, and Uruguay would all be winners in a 24-team RWC. They would see their chances of competing for a place in the play-off’s increased. Yet they are far from being alone. Italy’s quest to make it out of the group stage would be tremendous with a Round-of-16. So too would Georgia, Japan, Tonga, and the USA.

The following table is a sample to demonstrate a plausible section of competitors and how the pools may look.

POOL A	POOL B	POOL C	POOL D	POOL E	POOL F
Australia	South Africa	England	New Zealand	Wales	Ireland
Italy	Fiji	Japan	Scotland	France	Argentina
USA	Romania	Georgia	Tonga	Samoa	Uruguay
Germany	Hong Kong	Namibia	Canada	Russia	Spain

With four rather than five per pool it would be possible for both matches per pool to be on the same day. This would put an end to the complex match scheduling which has seen some teams playing two matches in five days from RWC 2003-2019.

The pool stage would be followed by a Round-of-16. This would include the winners, runners-up and best four third-placed teams. A sample table below demonstrates an example of how a Round-of-16 would be at RWC 2023.

1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Australia vs Fiji	South Africa vs Italy	England vs Samoa	New Zealand vs Georgia	Scotland vs Wales	France vs USA	Argentina vs Japan	Ireland vs Tonga

In terms of overall fixtures the model put forward would have 52 matches, four more than that of the existing model. The Round-of-16 would not make for a longer RWC though. Instead it would be positioned in place of the final week of pool matches.

By having teams from the same pools playing on the same day there could be less days without matches during the pool stage. This would also enable sufficient time for the Round-of-16 to be spread over a period from Thursday through Sunday, replacing the final weekend of pool play under the existing model. Time would allow for those playing on Sunday to have previously played on Monday.