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The first-ever test match between Canada and Germany comes with the highest possible stakes – a likely spot in the 2019 World Cup. For both it is a match of monumental importance. Canada have never missed out on qualifying, while Germany have never before tasted the thrill of World Cup participation.
It’s a match with plenty of sub-plots and one that most agree will decide the outcome of the Repechage competition. The loser may still be mathematically eligible to win but realistically it’s do or die for both. Simply put this is the biggest match in German rugby history. Some might argue the same for Canada.
Kingsley Jones has made four changes to the team that started against Kenya. Three are in the pack. Matt Tierney swaps jerseys with Jake Ilnicki to start at tighthead prop, as does Lucas Rumball and Matt Heaton at openside flank. A surprise selection sees Mike Sheppard handed his run-on debut after winning his first cap as a replacement last weekend. Brett Beukeboom switches to the bench.
The backs are almost untouched with one exception. Ciaran Hearn slots in at inside center at the expense of Nick Blevins. There are no further changes in the match day squad, with Gordon McRorie retained at flyhalf and Nottingham standout Shane O’Leary again left out completely.
Mike Ford has made the bare minimum number of changes after passing their Hong Kong test with good grades. Mathieu Ducau is ruled out with injury opening a spot for Carlos Soteras-Merz on the left wing in the only alteration to the starting roster.
A notable inclusion on the bench is Hagen Schulte, the New Zealand-born flyhalf who is just returning from a thumb injury. Creative fullback Harris Aounallah is also capable of making an impact with Ford opting for a conventional 5-3 split on the bench.
Look for Germany to stick with the style that got them past Hong Kong safely. Canada have a similar approach to the Dragons, but pose greater challenges both physically and most importantly experience-wise. While Canada’s forwards largely had their way with Kenya, Germany will be a different kettle of fish.
For the Germans to succeed they must be disciplined and accurate, particularly at the set piece. With some rain on the forecast conditions will favor their kicking game. If they can secure their own ball at the lineout and pressure the Canadian outside backs into mistakes, they have a chance to cause the upset.
Canada meanwhile must not get sucked into a kicking duel. They simply do not have the ability to counter the length of Parkinson and Hilsenbeck. Attacking the more pedestrian German backline will be crucial to success, while their own discipline must be kept in check particularly in their own end.
This promises to be a fascinating encounter, and likely much closer than some pundits are suggesting. There is no doubt that Canada are favorites to pull through but Germany are no pushovers and believe they can win. Look for the edge in experience to be just enough to get Canada through a nerve-wracking contest in Marseille.
Kickoff is set for 4pm local time, 10am Eastern. Those in Canada can watch on TSN 1 or 3, with NBC Sports Gold holding the rights for the USA. Everyone else can access the live stream on World Rugby’s YouTube, Facebook, or Twitter accounts.
CANADA
1 Hubert Buydens, 2 Ray Barkwill, 3 Matt Tierney, 4 Mike Sheppard, 5 Evan Olmstead, 6 Kyle Baillie, 7 Lucas Rumball, 8 Tyler Ardron, 9 Phil Mack (capt.), 10 Gordon McRorie, 11 DTH van der Merwe, 12 Ciaran Hearn, 13 Ben LeSage, 14 Matt Evans, 15 Theo Sauder
Replacements: 16 Eric Howard, 17 Djustice Sears-Duru, 18 Jake Ilnicki, 19 Brett Beukeboom, 20 Matt Heaton, 21 Jamie MacKenzie, 22 Nick Blevins, 23 Conor Trainor
GERMANY
1 Julius Nostadt, 2 Kurt Haupt, 3 Samy Füchsel, 4 Michael Poppmeier (capt.), 5 Eric Marks, 6 Sebastian Ferreira, 7 Jaco Otto, 8 Jarrid Els, 9 Sean Armstrong, 10 Raynor Parkinson, 11 Carlos Soteras-Merz, 12 Jamie Murphy, 13 Wynston Cameron-Dow, 14 Marcel Coetzee, 15 Christopher Hilsenbeck
Replacements: 16 Dasch Barber, 17 Matthias Schösser, 18 Jörn Schröder, 19 Timo Vollenkemper, 20 Ayron Schramm, 21 Tim Menzel, 22 Hagen Schulte, 23 Harris Aounallah
Date: Saturday, November 17
Kick-off: 16:00 local (07:00 Pacific, 10:00 Eastern)
Venue: Stade Pierre Delort, Marseille
Referee: Luke Pearce (RFU)
Assistants: Sara Cox (RFU) & Sean Gallagher (IRFU)
TMO: Graham Hughes (RFU)
Broadcasts: TSN 1 & 3, NBC Sports Gold, World Rugby
