Forward Thinking (Vol 4, Iss 1): End Automatic RWC Qualifying

2018 is now here and it is to start with more Rugby World Cup qualifiers. Canada play host to Uruguay on January 27 in Vancouver. Uruguay then host the reverse fixture on February 03 in Montevideo. The winner, on aggregate, will be Americas 2 and play in Pool D of RWC 2019.

Canada and Uruguay are representing different regional bodies in their Americas 2 play-off fixture – Rugby Americas North and Sudamérica Rugby respectively. It is a format not replicated in other regions. Presumably it is though a desire of World Rugby to have continents represented by at least one RWC competitor. Is there a better explanation?

With the above in mind 2018 starts with Canada and Uruguay at the center of attention. It also begins with Forward Thinking as there is an argument to be made to end automatic RWC qualifying to make the process fairer for all and to improve upon international competition.

Americas Rugby Championship
In prior Rugby World Cup cycles the Canadians have always qualified ahead of the USA. This time they see themselves as the second ranked North American side. It is based not just on the Eagles winning the qualifiers in mid-2017 but also by having out performed Canada in recent years. Canada’s last win was in 2013.

In June Internationals, the Americas Rugby Championship and Rugby World Cup qualifiers from 2014-2017 the USA was undefeated. The Eagles recorded six wins and a 28-28 draw during this period.

The Americas Rugby Championship has changed the landscape of the Americas. Now the Top 6 face-off annually. In the first two editions both Canada and the USA suffered away defeats against Brazil and Uruguay.

The encouraging start to the competition lays the foundations for it to become a RWC qualifying tournament overtime. Having Argentina play and not the Argentina XV is the missing part of the puzzle with Americas 1, 2 and 3 qualifying for the RWC and Americas 4 entering repechage. Could World Rugby establish similar patterns of qualifying for other regions?

Oceania Cup
Japan 2019 has four slots for Oceania sides. Australia and New Zealand are automatic qualifiers while Fiji and Tonga qualified in 2017. Samoa are up against a European side in a play-off for a spot in Pool A.

Both Samoa and Tonga have well documented financial concerns. They both, like Fiji, have a record of struggling to secure matches against Australia and New Zealand. An Oceania Cup could change this. Backed by World Rugby it could be a commercial success and would be cheaper to run than the Americas Rugby Championship.

The Five Nations format could see the bottom ranked side qualifying to compete with the other four. From there the top 4 qualify for the RWC as Oceania 1, 2, 3 and 4. The 5th side enters repechage.

European Championship
Europe has the Six Nations Championship separate from the remainder of Rugby Europe activities. Georgia is seeking a path to participate though World Rugby is unable to act as a third party. The short story is that changing the Six Nations remains unlikely.

On February 10 Germany and Russia host Romania and Spain in Rugby World Cup qualifiers. Georgia also play that day, taking on Belgium, yet due to having qualified directly the match does not count towards Japan 2019 placement.

Is there a path? Could a European Cup come into fruition in conjunction with Six Nations and the Rugby Europe Championship?

A variety of paths could be taken. One possibility is to draw a line in the middle. For RWC 2023 have the top 3 (including France) from the 2021 Six Nations qualify for France 2023. The three bottom sides (excluding France) could then face the top 3 from the Rugby Europe Championship.

It is paramount that exciting international windows are used. There is space to add one match in June and November as there is during the bye weekends of the Six Nations. As such room can be found for three sides such as Georgia, Romania and Spain to face potentially face Italy, Scotland and Wales in 2021-2022.

For Japan 2019 there are 8 European teams. 7 are automatic qualifiers. Europe 1 is the 8th. The above European Cup qualifiers would mean 6 teams compete for 4 positions. The 5th placed side would enter repechage. For France 2023 it would be increased by one due to France qualifying as the host.

Africa Cup
South Africa has a history of aiding neighbors. Yet the Springboks have not played an away test match against an African country. On June 16 Namibia and Zimbabwe host Uganda and Morocco in RWC qualifiers. Kenya and Tunisia are the others involved in the Africa 1 qualifiers.

In the 2017 November Internationals Namibia fell to a home series defeat against Uruguay. Namibia has been Africa 1 in RWCs 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011 and 2015 and is favorites again for 2019. A reformed Africa Cup with South Africa involved and two repechage places is a potentially just solution.

Asia Championship
Like Africa and South America, Asia has one team notably better than the others. The 2017 Asia Championship had Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea competing at the elite level.

The current format could be retained with the winner being Asia 1 and the runner-up entering repechage as Asia 2.

Based on the above there would be 3 repechage spots available. A selection of Canada, Chile, Samoa, Kenya, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Germany, Russia and Spain are potential competitors.

#	Region	Qualification	Country
1	Europe	RWC 2023 Host	France
2	Americas	Americas 1	Argentina
3	Americas	Americas 2	USA
4	Americas	Americas 3	Uruguay
5	Oceania	Oceania 1	New Zealand
6	Oceania	Oceania 2	Australia
7	Oceania	Oceania 3	Fiji
8	Oceania	Oceania 4	Tonga
9	Europe	Six Nations 1	England
10	Europe	Six Nations 2	Ireland
11	Europe	Europe 1	Wales
12	Europe	Europe 2	Scotland
13	Europe	Europe 3	Italy
14	Europe	Europe 4	Georgia
15	Europe	Europe 5	Romania
16	Africa	Africa 1	South Africa
17	Asia	Asia 1	Japan
18	Global	Repechage	Samoa
19	Global	Repechage	Canada
20	Global	Repechage	Namibia