The Winners and Losers of RWC 2019 Match Schedule

Thursday morning’s live match schedule announcement saw some smiling while others looked at their lists wondering what to think. This was based on RWC 2019 handing out a range of demands to the twenty participants. There were some clear winners and losers.

Match Days
In terms of overall match days World Rugby can lay claim to the match schedule being relatively even across the board. When looked at per country Japan has the best schedule with 24 days for the 4 pool matches.

Five countries come in second best with 22 days for their pool matches. They are Africa 1, France, New Zealand, Scotland and Tonga. Five more have 21 days – Australia, England, Ireland, Italy and Wales while Argentina and Europe 1 both have 20.

The seven remaining competitors have 18 or 19 days. They are Americas 2, Fiji, Georgia, Play-off Winner, Repechage Winner, South Africa and the USA.

The USA and Canada or Uruguay (Americas 2) therefore have it tougher than Argentina and New Zealand but equal to South Africa, do they not?

No, it is not so simple. There is far more to be understood. New Zealand, England, South Africa and France can play twice on a short turn-around. Asking Fiji, Georgia or the USA to do so is an entirely different task. The depth is vastly different.

Understanding who the winners and losers are requires analyzing the order of fixtures and the number of rest days between games. These factors explain who really has reason to smile and who does not.

Winners
The biggest winner was Japan. This is not surprising. As the tournament host it is entirely expected. Japan know first hand how important scheduling can be. In 2015 they played South Africa and Scotland with just three rest days in between. For 2019 they will have 7 rest days between facing Europe 1 (likely Romania) and Ireland, 6 between Ireland and Play-Off Winner (likely Samoa) and 7 between Play-Off Winner and Scotland.

Not only do Scotland have 22 days but their match order is perfect. They face Ireland first up then after a seven day rest face the Play-Off Winner. It is followed by 8 rest days before facing Europe 1. Only three days are between facing Europe 1 and Japan though with Europe 1 likely to be the weakest team in the pool this is not as significant as it may at first appear.

Undefeated since Rugby World Cup 2007 there is something seriously wrong with New Zealand having four more days than Fiji or the USA. The All Blacks open against South Africa and then have 10 days off. They return to face the Repechage Winner and then Africa 1 after a three day rest. These two games are lumped together but this matters not given who the All Blacks are and who their opponents are. They finish against Italy after 5 days recovery following Africa 1.

Having been dumped out early in 2015 England stand no chance of this repeating in 2019. England have Tonga and the USA as their opening two games. While they have just 3 rest days in between they are clearly easier matches than what follows. Facing Argentina and France in games 3 and 4 and having 8 and 6 rest days is a fantastic schedule.

Oceania qualifiers, Tonga start by facing England and Argentina. They do so with 5 rest days. This is very challenging. From there, though, Tonga have a stacked deck in their advantage. Rest days are no problem and they face France who will have played against the USA 3 rest days earlier. They then conclude against the USA who will be coming off a match against Argentina, also 3 rest days earlier.

Pool D looms as less competitive than the others. Wales not only scored a favorable group but also a very manageable schedule. First up is Georgia. From there they face Australia after 5 days rest. Then they have 9 before facing Fiji and just 3 before taking-on Americas 2. The order of matches and rest days between different opposition work in Wales’ advantage.

Losers
Pool A favorites, Ireland face the second and third ranked sides in their two opening games. This is far from ideal. To compile Ireland’s task they will have five rest days between these matches. After facing Japan they have four days off before facing Europe 1. They then have a notable gap of 8 days before facing the Play-Off Winner. While their are plenty of days the scheduling is very much a negative for Ireland.

Ireland’s issues are noteworthy but they are manageable. The same is not the case for Europe 1 and the Play-Off Winner. A ghastly match schedule sees Europe 1 having just 3 days between facing Japan and the Play-Off Winner. A reserve line-up is thereby likely to play in the tournament opener. Europe 1 also have 5 days between facing Scotland and Ireland. The Play-Off Winner is to have just 4 days between facing Scotland and Japan. This may well play into the hands of the Japanese.

Yet to win a Rugby World Cup game in eight tournaments Africa 1 faces pressure to do so in Japan. The schedule is far from ideal. They open against Italy and following 5 days rest they face South Africa. Being at full strength for both games is questionable. Africa 1, though, will be happy in facing the Repechage Winner last and that game being after a six day rest.

The Repechage Winner will target their game against Africa 1. They will have just 4 days rest for the game after facing South Africa. They enter the tournament late, opening against Italy. From there they have 5 rest days before facing New Zealand. Lastly they have 5 more before facing South Africa. In a word – Demanding.

Of the 3 powerhouses in Pool C Argentina has it worst. Los Pumas face France in game 1 and England in game 3. Early elimination is thereby extremely plausible. Just 3 rest days have been allocated to Argentina between their game against England and finishing the pool against the USA.

The USA benefit from both England and Argentina backing-up quickly before taking-on the Eagles. Yet there is little reason to smile for Eagles players or supporters. The USA have 5 days between facing England and France and 3 between Argentina and Tonga.

Neither Argentina nor the USA have got what they would have hoped for but Americas 2 (Canada or Uruguay) has it very rough. They are to face Fiji and Georgia in their first and second games. They will do so with just 3 rest days in between. From there they have 5 rest days before facing Australia.

Georgia face Wales first and Australia last. This is a positive. But in between the numbers suggest that the Lelos will be pushed to the limit. They have 5 rest days between facing Wales and Americas 2, and just 3 between Americas 2 and Fiji.

Facing Australia first is Fiji. They then have 3 days rest before taking-on Americas 2. It is a high risk situation of determining how to approach facing the Wallabies. Between games 3 and 4 the Fijians will have 5 rest days. Their opponents are to be Georgia and Wales.