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Houston we have a problem. Los Pumas are unable to finish off matches. They are proving to be competitive at half time and, usually, still so into the second half. But in the final quarter there is a growing list of failures in which Argentina is getting beaten.
Los Pumas’ final quarter failures against New Zealand and Australia have gained attention. The two losses in Oceania saw Argentina leading at half time only for the All Blacks and Wallabies to regain the lead and go on to win by impressive margins.
Writing for La Nation Fernando Vergara noted that:
In terms of the numbers the equation is similar: In New Plymouth, Argentina went into the break leading, the situation was repeated in Canberra. The rest of the story is also repeated: an incapacity to compete in the final minutes, unfocused and clear failures in making first-up tackles. Of everything in the second 40 minutes, it was the most clear point left from the tour to Oceania.
The similarities were, indeed, evident. But what needs to be added is that this is not merely limited to the Oceania Tour. To the contrary there are further instances in which Argentina has had a lead only to be beaten in the final quarter.
Remarkably since Rugby World Cup 2015 it has happened on ten occasions. Under Hourcade’s first two years, from November 2013 to October 2015, there are five instances. Put differently, Argentina’s deteriorated results since 2015 can be connected, in no small part, to final quarter failures.
Competing But Falling
Before the 2017 Rugby Championship started the writing was on the wall. Following the 2-0 home series loss to England, Daniel Hourcade told reporters that it is not about winning or losing necessarily but about having the opportunity to win. The fact that the losses were small means the team is on the right track.
This logic is now being scrutinized as South Africa, New Zealand and Australia have all now beaten Argentina comfortably.
The declared goal of winning two matches in this year’s Rugby Championship is all but over. It could happen. Doing so requires Argentina to win in Buenos Aires and Mendoza against New Zealand and Australia.
Coming Close with Pampas XV and Jaguares
The list of games that got away under Hourcade stands at fifteen. It is a sizable number which, when looking carefully, implies that there is a pattern in which Argentina was unable to finish off matches when having been in a position to do so.
Has the number increased post 2015 for a reason? Is it a coincidence that with European-based players the team has fallen away in the final quarter on nine occasions, compared to five in the previous period?
It is certainly a convincing argument and an explanatory one and is actually supported by Hourcade’s own decision in June 2014. Los Pumas went 0-3 at home that month, losing to Ireland and Scotland. Hourcade did not select European-based players for the matches. With players free for the Rugby Championship but not June he avoided selecting fringe players from Europe.
Were the June Internationals in 2014 a warning? In fact, yes. The difference to note is that then most players were in the Pampas XV while now they are Jaguares. While Los Jaguares are facing far stronger opposition the transition to Los Pumas is, in both instances not functioning. Missing Pumas could improve Argentina.
Hourcade is now charged not only with getting Argentina to win again but in having Los Pumas compete for the full 80 minutes. If the team is able to improve endurance and have positive impact from the reserves then the likelihood of a win will be enhanced.
The losses to have come when Argentina was either leading or close to the opposition at half time and / or the hour mark are shown below.
September 16 2017: Australia 45-20 Argentina, Canberra
September 09 2017: New Zealand 39-22 Argentina, New Plymouth
August 26 2017: Argentina 23-41 South Africa, Salta
June 17 2017: Argentina 25-35 England, Santa Fé
June 10 2017: Argentina 34-38 England, San Juan
November 19 2016: Scotland 19-16 Argentina, Edinburgh
November 12 2016: Wales 24-20 Argentina, Cardiff
August 20 2016: South Africa 30-23 Argentina, Nelspruit
September 20 2015: New Zealand 26-16 Argentina, London
August 23 2014: Argentina 31-33 South Africa, Salta
June 21 2014: Argentina 19-21 Scotland, Córdoba
June 14 2014: Argentina 17-23 Ireland, Tucumán
June 07 2014: Argentina 17-29 Ireland, Resistencia
