WRWC Semi Final Qualification Explained

Through two rounds of the pool stage and Women’s Rugby World Cup the results have been largely predictable. In fact each pool is perfectly aligned with current World Rugby Rankings with the exception of Pool B, where Italy is ahead of Spain on points differential.

With only 12 teams and three pools, the knock-out stage differs from the Men’s World Cup in that there are no Quarter Finals. The winners of each pool advance directly to the Semi Finals along with the ‘best second-place’ team, that being the pool runner-up with the most points, or where points are equal the team with the best points for-and-against differential.

 

AS IT STANDS

If the Semi Finals were decided today, the Semi Finals would be:

#1 New Zealand vs #4 USA

and

#2 France vs #3 England

That means both Canada and Ireland would be out of luck, missing out by one and two points respectively. In failing to score four tries against Wales, Canada did not get a vital bonus point that would have provided a safety net against New Zealand. Ireland meanwhile have come through two difficult matches, just doing enough to defeat Australia and Japan while not collecting any bonus points.

The standings as they are leave us with three matches of significance in terms of Semi Final qualification on Thursday. All three involve the two highest seeds from each pool, meaning that the winners of each match will top their pool and automatically advance to the Semi Finals. In effect these final pool matches have become an additional knock-out phase with one losing team receiving a ‘get out of jail’ pass and a chance for redemption.In chronological order they are:

POOL A: Canada vs New Zealand
POOL B: England vs USA
POOL C: France vs Ireland

 

 

HISTORICAL RESULTS

Before we delve into the different scenarios that might come into play, let’s first look at some important historical results for each of those match-ups.

Previous results in their entirety can be seen at the end of this page.

POOL A: Canada vs New Zealand

Canada have never beaten New Zealand in 13 times of asking. Twice before during World Cup play they have met. In 1991 New Zealand won by 24 to 8, and in 2006 it was a very lopsided 66-7 win for the Black Ferns. Both matches took place in the pool stage.

In recent years, however, the gap has been closing. Canada’s best result against New Zealand came in the first of two tests in June 2014 when they dropped a 16-8 match in Tauranga. Over the past 12 months they have squared off twice, with New Zealand winning 20-10 in Dublin last November and by 28-16 in Wellington this past June.

POOL B: England vs USA

The USA’s record against England is only marginally better than Canada’s against New Zealand in that the Women’s Eagles have one previous win on their books. Problematically that solitary victory came in their first ever encounter in the final of the 1991 World Cup.

Since then England have claimed all 14 of their meetings, including three at World Cups. In the second of two tests in 2008 the USA nearly claimed an upset, losing out by only 17-14. It was a remarkable change from the first test which ended with England ahead by 50-3. A 15-11 result in 2011 was another near-miss but the three most recent results have been consistent and in fact the last two were identical at 39-13, the other being 36-21 in 2013.

POOL C: France vs Ireland

Unsurprisingly this is the most uncertain outcome of the three, at least in accordance with historical results. One of the longest and closest rivalries in international rugby with the advent of the Women’s Six Nations, the two have taken the field opposite each other on 25 occasions, with Ireland taking only three wins and one draw in that time, but those numbers must be put into context.

For 12 years France were completely dominant, winning all 12 matches at a canter. Something clicked for Ireland in 2007 however, and they closed the gap to a mere 3 points. They earned a draw in Amsterdam in 2008 and finally got their dues in 2009 with an historic 7-5 in Ashbourne.

From 2007 onward France still have the advantage winning 9 of 13 but the largest margin of victory has been only 9 points. Perhaps most importantly Ireland won their match earlier this year by 13-10, also in Dublin, so the result is very far from a fait accompli.

 

DIFFERENTIAL RANKINGS

Given that the winners of each pool advance automatically it’s thus more important to look at the potential fates of those who lose on Thursday. In this case it’s useful to rearrange the standings based on points differential given the likelihood that more than one runner-up will be locked on 10 (or 11) competition points.

TEAM	POOL	POINTS	+/-
New Zealand	A	10	+153
Canada	A	9	+113
France	C	10	+106
England	B	10	+94
USA	B	10	+55
Ireland	C	8	+12

In this instance things could get very sticky indeed should Canada lose but manage to keep a low score against New Zealand, and should Ireland achieve victory over France. The USA do not have differential in their favor despite their big win over Spain, and while they are currently in the best position they are best served by a big win from New Zealand and any manner of victory from France.

One thing that can be noted in previous results is that while losing bonus points seem to be a guarantee in this match, a try-scoring bonus has been nearly impossible for Ireland. Only once have they scored four tries against France, the 22-all draw in 2008. Regardless, even if Ireland were to achieve two losing bonus points their points differential would not be enough to overcome that of the USA or Canada.

 

SCENARIOS

There are numerous potential scenarios that could unfold given these criteria and the above standings. The most likely would appear to be New Zealand, England, and France winning, in which case it’s up to how Canada and the USA fare in defeat. We cannot rule out upsets, however, so below we attempt to decipher what each team must do to achieve qualification if they lose on Thursday.

For clarity, competition points are awarded as following:

4 points for a win
2 points for a draw
0 points for a loss
1 bonus point for scoring four tries or more
1 bonus point for losing by 7 points for less

If NEW ZEALAND wins… Canada must score a bonus point in defeat and hope that a) the loser of England vs USA does not earn a bonus point and and b) that either France defeats Ireland or loses heavily without scoring four tries.

If CANADA wins… New Zealand must score a bonus point in defeat or hope that a) the loser of England vs USA does not earn a bonus point and b) that either France defeats Ireland or loses heavily without scoring four tries.

If ENGLAND wins… the USA must score a bonus point in defeat or hope that a) Canada does not defeat New Zealand and b) Canada does not earn a bonus point in defeat to New Zealand and c) Ireland does not defeat France.

If the USA wins… England must score a bonus point in defeat or hope that a) Canada does not defeat New Zealand and b) Canada does not earn a bonus point in defeat to New Zealand and c) France does not earn a bonus point in defeat to Ireland.

If FRANCE wins… Ireland are out.

If IRELAND wins… France must score a bonus point in defeat or hope that a) Canada does not defeat new Zealand and b) Canada does not earn a bonus point in defeat to New Zealand and c) the loser of England vs USA does not earn a bonus point in defeat.

There is also the less likely but conceivable situations where the match (or matches) end in a draw. In this case differential and try bonus points once again become vitally important. Even 12 competition points might not be enough if one team scores four tries to achieve the bonus.

 

SUMMARY

Of course each team will be desperate to win but the bottom line is that the Americas teams must come away with points in their respective fixtures. If Canada does not secure at least one bonus point, they are out regardless of what else happens later in the day. If the USA does not earn at least one bonus point, they are at the mercy of others.

It makes for a compelling day of rugby where the fate of the Semi Finalists won’t ultimately be known until the last whistle of the pool stage finale.

 

 

 

PREVIOUS RESULTS

POOL A: Canada vs New Zealand

1991-04-06 – New Zealand 24, Canada 8 (Glamorgan, Wales) *WRWC 1991
1996-09-08 – New Zealand 88, Canada 3 (St. Albert, Canada)
1999-10-16 – New Zealand 73, Canada 0 (Palmerston North, New Zealand)
2000-09-23 – New Zealand 41, Canada 0 (Winnipeg, Canada)
2004-06-08 – New Zealand 32, Canada 5 (Vancouver, Canada)
2005-07-05 – New Zealand 43, Canada 3 (Ottawa, Canada)
2005-07-08 – New Zealand 32, Canada 5 (Ottawa, Canada)
2006-08-31 – New Zealand 66, Canada 7 (Edmonton, Canada) *WRWC 2006
2014-06-10 – New Zealand 16, Canada 8 (Tauranga, New Zealand)
2014-06-14 – New Zealand 33, Canada 21 (Whakatane, New Zealand)
2015-06-27 – New Zealand 40, Canada 22 (Calgary, Canada)
2016-11-23 – New Zealand 20, Canada 10 (Dublin, Ireland)
2017-06-09 – New Zealand 26, Canada 16 (Wellington, New Zealand)

POOL B: England vs USA

1991-04-14 – USA 19, England 6 (Cardiff, Wales) *WRWC 1991
1993-06-08 – England 17, USA 6 (Toronto, Canada)
1994-04-24 – England 38, USA 23 (Edinburgh, Scotland) *WRWC 1994
2000-09-23 – England 31, USA 7 (Winnipeg, Canada)
2003-06-18 – England 15, USA 8 (Vancouver, Canada)
2006-08-31 – England 18, USA 0 (St. Albert, Canada) *WRWC 2006
2007-12-15 – England 34, USA 0 (Reading, England)
2008-08-19 – England 50, USA 3 (Esher, England)
2008-08-22 – England 17, USA 14 (Esher, England)
2009-08-10 – England 36, USA 7 (Oakville, Canada)
2010-08-28 – England 37, USA 10 (Guildford, England) *WRWC 2010
2011-08-02 – England 15, USA 11 (Oakville, Canada)
2013-08-07 – England 36, USA 21 (Greeley, USA)
2015-06-27 – England 39, USA 13 (Calgary, Canada)
2016-07-09 – England 39, USA 13 (Salt Lake City, USA)

POOL C: France vs Ireland

1994-04-15 – France 31, Ireland 0 (Milngavie, Scotland) *WRWC 1994
1995-03-05 – France 39, Ireland 10 (Dublin, Ireland)
1999-02-07 – France 24, Ireland 0 (Dublin, Ireland)
2000-05-08 – France 41, Ireland 14 (El Ejido, Spain)
2001-02-16 – France 53, Ireland 0 (Dublin, Ireland)
2001-05-06 – France 45, Ireland 9 (Lille, France)
2002-04-05 – France 46, Ireland 0 (Melun, France)
2003-03-09 – France 20, Ireland 0 (Limerick, Ireland)
2004-02-15 – France 22, Ireland 5 (Paris, France)
2005-03-13 – France 34, Ireland 0 (Dublin, Ireland)
2006-02-10 – France 32, Ireland 0 (Montauban, France)
2006-08-31 – France 43, Ireland 0 (St. Albert, Canada) *WRWC 2006
2007-02-10 – France 13, Ireland 10 (Dublin, Ireland)
2008-02-10 – France 26, Ireland 17 (Paris, France)
2008-05-24 – France 22, Ireland 22 (Amsterdam, Netherlands)
2009-02-06 – Ireland 7, France 5 (Ashbourne, Ireland)
2010-02-12 – France 19, Ireland 9 (Blois, France)
2011-02-11 – France 14, Ireland 12 (Ashbourne, Ireland)
2012-02-11 – France 8, Ireland 7 (Pau, France)
2013-03-08 – Ireland 15, France 10 (Ashbourne, Ireland)
2014-03-14 – France 19, Ireland 15 (Pau, France)
2014-08-17 – France 25, Ireland 18 (Paris, France) *WRWC 2014
2015-02-13 – France 10, Ireland 5 (Ashbourne, Ireland)
2016-02-13 – France 18, Ireland 12 (Perpignan, France)
2017-02-26 – Ireland 13, France 10 (Dublin, Ireland)