Why Canada must win on Saturday

International rugby is about winning. That goes for every minute of every match. Winning the set piece, winning the collisions, whatever battle that needs to be won to walk away victorious. In sport, however, some games are more important than others. The knock-outs. Local derbies. Cup finals. The Americas 1 spot in the World Cup will be decided over two matches and the loser of the series will have further opportunities to qualify via the Americas 2 and Repechage routes, but make no mistake, Saturday is a must-win game for Canada.

The objective is simple – qualify for the 2019 World Cup in Japan. It will be 9th running of the world’s premier rugby competition. Canada has thus far participated in every one. It’s important to note, however, that in every qualification cycle to now Canada has been the favorite to win the Americas 1 spot, and in every time of asking they have succeeded. This is not the case now.

For the first time Canada enter the Americas 1 qualifiers as clear underdogs. The USA sits six spots above Canada on the official World Rugby Rankings, the Eagles at 17 and Canada at the historic low of 23. In head-to-head competition the USA have won the last five meetings dating back to August of 2013, the last World Cup qualifying series. Canada’s record in 2017 stands at one win from seven matches. The USA have four wins, one draw, and two losses against virtually identical competition.

Canada’s patch to RWC 2019 if they do not win on Saturday is anything but secure. A loss in Hamilton would force them to not only win in San Diego but make up any points deficit that accrues from the first match. Home field advantage has not, historically speaking, carried as much significance between the North American rivals but it is not a stretch to suggest that winning in the southern-most reaches of the United States will be a serious task.

There has been a preposterous suggestion thrown about, whether haphazardly or in jest, that it might be more advantageous to qualify as the Americas 2 representative given the World Cup draw. The folly of this thinking should be obvious but let’s indulge this for a brief moment.

If we accept that neither Canada nor the USA are in a reasonable position to escape from either Pool C or D in the World Cup – and to be clear they are not – we must then shift the priority to coming away with a win, something that is now a major achievement for Tier 2 sides regardless of opposition. The Americas 2 winner will end up in Pool D where Georgia and almost certainly Fiji await. Americas 1 goes into Pool C, the ‘Pool of Death’, but will have a shot at either Tonga or Samoa. That appears to be the most favorable opposition of either pool. In summary, Pool C is preferable to Pool D.

There are also other things to consider. Any team in their right mind wants to qualify as early as possible to begin preparations and attract sponsor support for the build-up. There are precisely zero financial advantages to delaying qualification. You are also playing with fire the further down the hole you go. We have already experienced this in the Olympic qualifiers and there is certainly plenty of fire awaiting should Canada fail to defeat the USA.

The next stop would be Uruguay. In years past this would be a formality, but as we have been made painfully aware that is no longer the case. Los Teros are a team on the rise. They have won the Nations Cup and now have nine wins on the trot, virtually the polar opposite of Canada’s momentum. The Americas 2 qualifiers are set to take place on January 27 and February 3 of 2018, before the Americas Rugby Championship. If we thought our players were under-prepared for this year’s ARC, those dates are something out of a nightmare.

To win in Uruguay is very far from a guarantee and securing top professionals for those matches, with those dates, will not be easy. Tyler Ardron, for example, will be in the final throes of his Super Rugby preparation. It will be a tough ask to ask him to step out for two weeks entering the first year of his contract. The European pros will be engaged in their competitions and there is virtually zero rugby in Canada played from mid-December through the end of January.

If the worst comes to pass and Canada does not succeed against Uruguay, it’s into the dreaded Repechage. The likes of Spain, Russia, Germany, Kenya, and possibly one of Tonga or Samoa will be in the mix. It will require coming out on top of a round-robin format. You may choose your own analogy, but this is very far from a walk in the park.

The beauty of sport, as they say, is that the game is not played on paper. Anything can happen on the day. The truth is that Canada are up against it with nowhere to turn and Saturday is the most important game Canada will have played in a long, long time. Whatever it takes, Canada must find a way to win.