Up and Under – RWC 2019 Special Edition

The pools are in. Rugby World Cup 2019 will be as exciting as any before. The spread of teams across the pools is relatively even, albeit there are winners as there are losers. In this special edition of Up and Under we put them under the microscope.

UP

Pool C
It’s official, Pool C is the toughest of the four. As occurred in Rugby World Cups 2003, 2007 and 2011 this also happens to be Argentina’s pool. Do not pay much attention to predictions for their pool. It will go down to the wire. Not even Nostradamus would dare predict a winner or two qualifiers. In addition to having England, France, and Argentina the group is to have two competitive Tier 2 sides. Speculating on qualifiers the Americas 1 will be Canada or the USA while Oceania 2 should be Samoa. That is tougher than anything in Rugby World Cup history.

Japan, Scotland
The hosts got lucky. There is no other way to put it. Had Japan and Argentina been drawn in opposing places then the chances of a Japanese Quarter Finals appearance would be very low. As it stands both Ireland and Scotland are very competitive. They are, however, sides in which Japan can mount a game plan against and come out on top. Doing so against England and France would arguably be a much greater challenge. Expect Ireland to win the group. This makes Scotland and Japan the real winners as they have an easier path to the Quarter Finals than do Los Pumas.

Romania, Tonga
Speculating further as to who will qualify sees Romania and Tonga as the probable remaining teams to play in Pool A. For both the opportunity of playing against the host nation is bigger than many realize. Given that Tokyo rather than Yokohama will open the tournament the possibility of Japan facing Romania or Tonga is very real. More importantly, both teams have the means to plot a path to try to win two matches. They will fancy defeating the other in addition to upsetting either Japan or one of the Celts.

Uruguay
Assuming Uruguay wins the South American ‘A’ Championship and then loses to Canada or the USA in the finals then Los Teros would play in the repechage. This being the case it would mirror that of 2015. The difference this time around is that the repechage qualifier will play in Pool B and face Africa 1 rather than Oceania 1. Playing Namibia instead of Fiji would be a vastly preferable situation and gives Uruguay a prime shot at a victory.

UNDER

Italy
Italy’s Quarter Finals quest will likely have to be put on hold. Italy just cannot get a friendly draw. Or can they? In 2015 they had France and Ireland while in 2011 it was Australia and Ireland. Italy knew their chances of progressing was limited. In 2003 it was New Zealand and Wales though the John O’Neill administration handed Italy an unsporting schedule of 4 games in 14 days. Argentina and Tonga both had similar tasks. New Zealand and Australia, though, had 23 days. In 2007 Italy had a friendly draw and opposition though just fell short, losing to Scotland based on missed goal kicking while the Scots also failed to score a try. There is hope though. Italy did shock South Africa last November.

USA
There is little debate that the Eagles are currently the best from North America. The USA has a five-match winning-streak over Canada. This may not be a good thing though. Why? Take a moment to recall Rugby World Cup 2007. On that occasion Oceania 1 was drawn with England and South Africa. Oceania 2, though, had Australia and Wales. Fiji strategically fielded reserves to intentionally not qualify as Oceania 1. The result was an easier pool and Fiji, indeed, upset Wales to reach the Quarter Finals. The USA is in a comparable position now. Pool C is much tougher than Pool D.

England
Eddie Jones’ impact has been tremendous. But regardless of who is in charge of England the reality is the country is in the toughest pool. This alone makes the possibility of the unthinkable repeating itself. Both France and Argentina could beat England. If so then England would miss out on the Quarter Finals again. Important to bare in mind is that while England did win 18 consecutive games none were against New Zealand. In addition neither Australia nor South Africa were close to playing at their peak in 2016. France and Argentina are under-performing teams. Both have a lot of youth developing and will realistically be looking to beat both each other and the English.

Pool D
The favorite to win Pool D is Australia. The two-time winner and 2015 finalist will be joined by Wales, Georgia, Oceania 1 and Americas 2. It is a notably easier draw for the Wallabies than in 2015. This pool resembles one from Rugby World Cup 2007 more so than 2019. The reason being it is far more predictable than World Rugby would potentially have desired. Both Australia and Wales are very satisfied with the outcome. Georgia also has a simpler task than do Argentina and Italy. Overall, though, it is Japan, with the friendliest of the Band 3 nations. Fiji and Canada are the probable qualifiers in this pool. For Canada it would mark an improvement from 2015.