World Cup Qualifiers – Who will Canada pick?

The June international series is nearly upon us and with it the Americas 1 Rugby World Cup Qualifiers. That means it’s the the most important time of the year for Canada’s senior men’s team and they’ll need all hands on deck as they face off against the mighty US Eagles. Once upon a time this would be meat and drink for the men in red but times have changed and the Eagles will enter the series as favorites for the first time. Not only are the Eagles five spots higher on the official World Rugby Rankings but they also boast a five-game winning streak over Canada dating back to August 2013, when Canada pipped a 13-11 result in the RWC 2015 qualifier match at Toronto’s BMO Field.

Frustrated with the lack of game time for some of his top professionals, Mark Anscombe is set to run a trial match against the BC Bears on May 27 to give domestic players a chance to nudge their way into the squad. There will also be a de facto trial on May 20 when the Ontario Blues take on the Glendale Raptors in Burlington. The Blues are set to name their strongest possible squad for the match, including several current internationals, to face a Glendale team that will be similarly adorned with USA caps. A match between a Canada XV and the Wolf Pack on May 20 was briefly mentioned at the AGM but with no information since the idea appears to have been discarded.

[EDIT: Canada XV will now play the Wolf Pack on Friday, June 2 in Calgary.]

Anscombe will select an enlarged squad for the test series with an eye to giving fringe players a chance in the trial match and against Georgia, and will then select his top team against Romania, wary that four weeks of test rugby on the trot could be too much for some players. It’s a risk but Georgia are not the same team on the road they are at home, and will be without inspirational leader Mamuka Gorgodze, who this past week announced his retirement from international rugby.

With that in mind the announced training group could be as large as 36-38, and then trimmed first for the Russia test and then the qualifiers, with a travel squad to San Diego for the July 1 match likely streamlined further to 26 players. Aside from long-term injury victims Jeff Hassler and Matt Evans the team is expected to have all overseas players available, making this the strongest selection since the 2015 World Cup. A couple new names might also appear with the blueprints to RWC 2019 being drawn up now.

 

FRONT ROW

Four obvious choices here. Loosehead props Rob Brouwer and Djustice Sears-Duru can be expected to continue on from their Americas Rugby Championship selections. Both should play for the Blues against Glendale on May 20 with Sears-Duru’s Glasgow Warriors contract now expired. Matt Tierney impressed during the ARC and will get one of the tighthead spots along with Jake Ilnicki, who was just released from Northampton Saints after being confined to Aviva ‘A’ league duty. Cole Keith will be tasked with holding down the u20 scrum in a bid to qualify for the World Rugby u20 Trophy tournament.

Alternatives at loosehead are not plentiful. Hubert Buydens seems to have quietly ridden off into the sunset having not played since damaging knee ligaments playing for San Diego in PRO Rugby last June. At the age of 35 a sudden return to action would be a surprise. Tom Dolezel is an option again and has the ability to cover both sides of the scrum. Similarly Neil Courtney of the Rounsefull Cup-winning UBC Thunderbirds covers both loose and tighthead prop. His scrum work could use some fine tuning but at 22 years old he has long-term potential. Peter Houlihan and Anthony Luca have traveled with Canada ‘A’ in recent months. Both would be surprise choices given their age and lack of test experience.

Things look a little better at tighthead. Wolf Pack regular Ryan Kotlewski was in the ARC squad but didn’t get a look-in. Andrew Tiedemann has been out of action for a while but has at least been training in Victoria. He could make a welcome return but would be a bit rusty. Doug Wooldridge is playing again for Castaway Wanderers and while a little short on match fitness is arguably the best scrummager available, always a plus to have on the resume.

Outside bets include giant Burnaby Lake bookend Ryan Ackerman, who has mashed all in front of him in the CDI Premier League and traveled with Canada ‘A’ last season. Former Ireland u20 starter Chris Taylor has been playing well for UBC but has up to now turned down Canadian selectors. More immediately concerning is that he looks to have damaged a shoulder in the Cup Final against Burnaby last weekend.

Hooker looks a much shorter list. The question is more who will start rather than who will be picked. Ray Barkwill, Benoît Pifféro, and Eric Howard look certain to be the trio named, with all three in the hunt for the No 2 shirt. UBC rake Alex Mascott is a good all-round player with strong technical skills but could use a few months in the gym get his body more in line with the demands of test rugby. Trinity College starter Paddy Finlay, now an Irish Schools international, would be a nice surprise but like Taylor has yet to commit to Canada at senior level. Richard Townsend saw game time with Richmond in the RFU Championship and would fall in the bolter category.

 

SECOND ROW

The news of Jamie Cudmore‘s retirement is making the rounds but don’t count him out just yet. His playing career in France is over but surely he has unfinished business on Canadian soil. Evan Olmstead was a deserved winner of Canada’s Player of the Year for 2016 and is a shoe-in, while Brett Beukeboom is another certain to be included. Some good news from Reading is the return of Jebb Sinclair, who looks fit and firing after a long injury layoff. He’ll be in as a lock or blindside option. That likely takes care of the second row for the senior group.

Top prospect Conor Keys is currently in New Zealand and a probability for the extended squad. Reegan O’Gorman and Liam Chisholm were part of the ARC group but look outsiders with the pros back in contention. Paul Ciulini is back on the pitch after a few months in sabbatical and could get a look if he shows well in the Glendale match. Northland’s Josh Larsen could get a look in the extended squad but this is already a very competitive group.

 

BACK ROW

The return of Tyler Ardron is a big boost to the team. He also looks likely of returning as captain. Where he plays is another question. It won’t be at lock, where he’s been seen recently with Ospreys, but might be on the blindside depending on whether Anscombe sees Aaron Carpenter as a starting option. Kyle Baillie is currently in New Zealand and will be in the mix somewhere. Could he be a surprise choice at openside? With a number of big men available it might not be the worst idea, especially with Sinclair and Olmstead options on the blindside. That said more likely the No 7 shirt is between ARC incumbent Lucas Rumball and Matt Heaton, who will be arriving from England.

Others in contention include Admir Cejvanovic, one of Canada’s best during the ARC and surely in the extended group at least. Matt Beukeboom will be with the u20s. Ollie Nott looked a bit overwhelmed in his debut and like Mascott could use some time to bulk up. Connor Hamilton is yet another in that group, fit and athletic but a little short on power. Nanyak Dala has been sidelined for some time and is unlikely to be in contention. Kyle Gilmour was last seen in the 2016 ARC and while it’s been suggested that he is keen to make a return it’s probably too late for June.

Outside of that group, Justin Blanchet is a starter at Bedford and might get an invite if Anscombe is looking for a flanker who specialises in chopping down trees. Clay Panga and Lucas Albornoz were in the ARC squad but are further down the pecking order here. Don’t expect to see any of the sevens group included, at least in the forwards. There might be room for a back or two.

 

HALFBACKS

Andrew Ferguson, Phil Mack, and Gordon McRorie, in alphabetical order, will be the scrumhalf candidates. Like hooker, the options are relatively clear and the question is who will start. McRorie, for all his talents, has not been able to put a stamp on the position in 21 starts while Mack is at his best as a ‘finisher’, to borrow from Eddie Jones. Has Ferguson’s decision to stay in Ontario harmed his chances? Only the selectors can answer that. With Jamie Mackenzie out of the picture the alternative looks to be UBC’s Jorden Sandover-Best, whose physical dimensions likely mean his route to senior international honors is via the sevens program.

Flyhalf has been the Canadian conundrum since the days of Ander Monro, but there could be an answer at last. Shane O’Leary is expected to be named in the group after being released from his Connacht contract. It might sounds counter-intuitive to lean on a player let go by a professional team, but his chances have largely been hampered by injury over the past couple years. He is fit again and playing well in club rugby, and with the paucity of options should be seen as a strong contender to wear the No 10 shirt come the USA matches.

Filling the role in November was Connor Braid, who played well enough to get an Aviva Premiership deal with Worcester and then carried on his good form in European action but again saw his chances limited when their regulars returned from injury. His best spot, however, is his World Cup position of inside centre, where he can attack the line and add width to the Canadian attack. Patrick Parfrey, the fourth man currently in New Zealand, is another option who is probably at his best as a second receiver.

The two ARC occupiers were Robbie Povey and Gradyn Bowd. Neither put forth compelling arguments and could use more seasoning at club level. World Cup options Liam Underwood and Nathan Hirayama are both sevens players, the former also injured, and not reasonable alternatives at a specialist position that requires recent XV-a-side experience. UBC playmaker Theo Sauder‘s kicking game isn’t up to test standard and like Sandover-Best is probably earmarked for a sevens spot in the near future.

 

MIDFIELD

If O’Leary comes through as expected look for Braid to be used at No 12. Conor Trainor has been earmarked for No 13 after a strong year with Vannes and two decent showing in the ARC. Veterans Ciaran Hearn and Nick Blevins are also in the mix with the ability to play either spot. Hearn’s form isn’t quite where it was in the World Cup but he remains a dependable player and his versatility may point to him being used in another position.

Boy wonder George Barton looks a good fit to captain the u20s. Look for him to return to the test side in November. Ben LeSage has a shoulder that needs fixing and it’s a miracle he was able to suit up for UBC in the past couple weeks. Mo Samson has only just returned from a bad hamstring injury. Phil Mackenzie hasn’t played since his concussion problems last summer. Guiseppe du Toit and Brock Staller are both possibles for the extended squad, the latter more likely to be taken as an outside back.

 

OUTSIDE BACKS

Losing Hassler is disappointing, but thankfully Canada is blessed with options on the wing. Taylor Paris and DTH van der Merwe will be the starters. Two thumbs way up. Dan Moor is next up, very capable backup. Below him are the likes of Jordan Wilson-Ross, Kainoa Lloyd, Anton Ngongo, Staller, and Sauder. Of those Lloyd looks most likely to be in an extended group. One who could be a surprise choice is Justin Douglas, who has been outstanding on the sevens circuit. Of all the positions it’s wing that translates best between the two codes, and Douglas certainly has the athletic ability to thrive should he be given special privileges.

Evans, on the other hand, has left a gaping hole at fullback. He is one of Canada’s most consistent performers and with James Pritchard retired there is no obvious solution here. Harry Jones is a sevens specialist, and while Hirayama could be seen as an emergency option here it does scream of desperation. Staller did not enjoy himself in the ARC and is probably best in the midfield or on the wing. Rory McDonell was strangely chosen on the wing despite playing his club rugby at fullback. He would be a surprise choice. Carl Pocock didn’t get a look-in after the ARC opener and du Toit is simply not a fullback.

So what is the answer? One option could be Hearn. His size, experience, and kicking abilities could see him shifted to the back if Braid and Trainor is the starting centre combo. Hearn has played fullback at test level before and has been playing wing for London Irish this season, so it’s not a bolt from the blue. Another who looks to have played himself into the middle of the conversation is Andrew Coe, who scored a hat-trick in the Rounsefull Cup final with Anscombe in attendance on the weekend. He has been on the radar for some time and looks to be fully operational again after recovering from shoulder surgery.

 

CONCLUSION

Form is not on Canada’s side but it’s not all doom and gloom. This will be the strongest assembly since RWC 2015 and in some ways could be stronger on paper. The main concern is in the spine of the team – hooker, No 8, halfbacks, fullback – and Anscombe will need to take decisive action there to give his side a chance to gel.

It’s also important to remember that this is not last chance saloon for Canada. They can still qualify as Americas 2 should they fall to the Eagles in June, and worst case scenario there is the repechage. This is far too strong a group of players to miss out on World Cup selection altogether, despite the musings of some pessimists. It’s not immediately clear when the squad for June will be named but Anscombe’s selections will give us a strong indication of what kind of team he is projecting for 2019.

 

POSSIBLE 31-MAN RWC QUALIFIER SQUAD

FORWARDS
Rob Brouwer (Ontario Blues), Jake Ilnicki (Northampton Saints), Djustice Sears-Duru (Glasgow Warriors), Matt Tierney (Pau), AN Other, Ray Barkwill (Castaway Wanderers), Eric Howard (Ontario Blues), Benoît Pifféro (Blagnac), Brett Beukeboom (Cornish Pirates), Jamie Cudmore (Oyonnax), Evan Olmstead (Newcastle Falcons), Jebb Sinclair (London Irish), Kyle Baillie (Westshore), Admir Cejvanovic (Burnaby Lake), Matt Heaton (Darlington Mowden Park), Lucas Rumball (Ontario Blues), Tyler Ardron (Ospreys), Aaron Carpenter (Doncaster Knights)

BACKS
Andrew Ferguson (Ontario Blues), Phil Mack (James Bay), Gordon McRorie (UBCOB Ravens), Shane O’Leary (Connacht), Connor Braid (Worcester Warriors), Patrick Parfrey (Swilers), Nick Blevins (UBCOB Ravens), Ciaran Hearn (London Irish), Conor Trainor (Vannes), Dan Moor (Castaway Wanderers), Taylor Paris (Agen), DTH van der Merwe (Scarlets), Andrew Coe (UBC Thunderbirds)