Argentina’s Path to Avoiding a Pool of Death in Japan 2019

The November Internationals were not kind to Argentina. The South Americans arrived in the U.K. via Japan where they had won and risen to 6th in the world. The ranking was still lower than that from a year earlier. Yet now Los Pumas sit in 9th spot and have no further matches before the draw is held. There is still some hope. Below is Argentina’s Path to Avoiding a Pool of Death in Japan 2019.

World Cup 2019 Bands
The draw for Japan 2019 will take place in Kyoto in May 2017. With Argentina’s next match being in June it is too late to gain points. Argentina has finished 2017 in Band 3. That is to say it is ranked in the third category and is set to be pooled with one team from each of the two higher bands.

Presently the bands see the teams separated as follows:

Argentina therefore have a 25% chance of again being pooled with New Zealand. More importantly, Argentina has a 100% change of playing against a second Tier 1 side. The only way to avoid doing so is to be ranked in Band 2 come May 2017. Should Argentina rise it would have a 75% chance of playing against one of Japan, Georgia and Italy. This would be an easier prospect that that of Wales, Suth Africa, Scotland or France.

2017 Six Nations
The Americas Rugby Championship will again see the Argentina XV and not Los Pumas playing. This means Argentina’s hope is that one or more side needs to fall below them in the rankings. There is positive news for Argentina given the match schedule.

The team arguably the most likely to fall is Scotland. The north-western Europeans will have a tough campaign. Points will likely be obtained by beating Italy in Edinburgh but losses are otherwise expected. Scotland has both Ireland and Wales in Edinburgh, matches in which the higher ranked visitors will have very strong opportunities to win.

Scotland’s two away matches in 2017 will be visits to London and Paris. Neither city has been kind to the Scots over the years. More importantly both England and France appear to be significantly better now than at last year’s Rugby World Cup. Both also have far more depth than do Scotland.

Today France is 8th and Scotland 7th. France’s lead over Argentina is very narrow. France’s home games are to be against Italy, Scotland and Wales. Wins are probable in all instances which would be sufficient for France to remain in Band 2. Losses would play into Argentina’s hands.

Having beaten New Zealand and Australia this month Ireland has risen to 4th in the world. For the Irish the dream of a friendly draw is now a reality. It would take a poor Six Nations campaign for Ireland to drop to 9th or lower. There is, nonetheless a path. Away losses to Scotland and Italy in rounds 1 and 2 combined with a home loss to France in round 3 would see Ireland fall below Argentina. Points would also be lost in losing to either England or Wales.

Wales are now ranked 5th in the world, one spot above South Africa. Welsh fans, though, are not humming with excitement. The general perspective is Wales is not playing good rugby. Wins over Argentina, Japan and South Africa boosted the ranking but Wales was fortunate to win the first two of these matches. The third was against possibly the worst Springboks side in history.

In the Six Nations Wales will play host to both England and Ireland. The visiting sides will both be favorites for victories. With this combined with a tough away match in Paris there is a real possibility that Wales fall below Argentina.