ARN Forecast – November 19

Last week set the panel straight with some shock results indeed. Uruguay were stunned by Germany in Frankfurt, the Eagles served up a stinker in Bucharest, and Argentina crashed down to earth in Cardiff. There are some confident individuals this week if a little shaken from the wreckage. This time around we’ve got a full deck of six internationals from the November tours and a bonus addition of the World Cup qualifier to be played in Paraguay. Once again here’s a primer on our star-studded team:

From ThisIsAmericanRugby we have battle-hardened veteran Curtis Reed, and we’re also graced with the fresh-faced master of the scrum, Derek Sagehorn. Repping Rugby Today is Mr. Numbers himself Jake Frechette, and then of course there’s the rugby savant Junoir Blaber from the Rugby Wrap Up. World renowned Rugby United sergeant-at-arms Dan Mason fancies his punditry skills, and Doug Coil is the quiet assassin from DJ Coil Rugby. We’re missing Ted Hardy this week but he sends his regards.

The Brazilians have little respect for American opinion and each seem confident of victory this time around. Victor Ramalho checks in from Portal do Rugby and he forms an effective tag team partnership with Paul Tait of this parish. They have stiff competition from Uruguay’s venerable veteran Ignacio Chans from El Observador.

Meanwhile holding fast in the great white north is Patrick Johnston of The Province and ARN’s own Bryan Ray. They’ve both picked Canada this week. Foolish mortals…

Only one unanimous choice this week, so get out your betting cards and play along!

GERMANY (23) vs BRAZIL (36)
Saturday, November 19, 15:00 Heidelberg

No issues here, Germany is the clear and obvious favorite to slam Os Tupis.

BR: The German pack impressed me against Uruguay, though the backs aren’t up to much. It’s an unusual Brazilian side selected and I can’t see a neophyte at no10 being a good thing. Germany wins this comfortably.

DC: Germany is on a mission and emerges with the win against Brazil.

DM: Germany won both games in Brazil last year. Now brimming with confidence, it seems it’s the entire program, not just their 7s team that is looking for promotion to bigger and better things.

DS: Germans continue their winning ways after the Uruguay upset.

IC: Having already been too strong for Brazil as a visitor and now beaten Uruguay, Germany is the firm favorite.

PJ: So I guess I have to go with Germany, eh? Didn’t catch much of the game, but what I saw was solid. Brazil can run the ball, but I worry about that scrum.

PT: The shock win over Uruguay will have given Germany the confidence to go for a series win over Brazil.

VR: After a strong exhibition against Uruguay, Germany is the favorite against Brazil especially playing at home. It’s a tough new environment for Os Tupis, but Germany won’t get it easy.

SPAIN (24) vs URUGUAY (20)
Saturday, November 19, 16:00 Málaga

A close match with Uruguay favorites despite their sub par effort in Frankfurt.

BR: Uruguay were a big disappointment against Germany but they’ve rolled out the big guns this week. Berchesi misses out but he had a mediocre game anyway and Etcheverry is a quality stand-in. Spain were outclassed by Tonga. They’ll be decent but I expect Los Teros to roll up their socks.

DC: Spain face a tough match against Uruguay and a penalty kick decides it.

DM: Uruguay let one get away last week by letting off the gas a bit too soon against a good team. Spain left a lot out there against Tonga last week. Uruguay needs this one badly.

DS: The hosts steal one from Los Teros in a close match.

IC: This is a tough one. The present favors Spain, who played well against Tonga. The matches between the sides have tended to be close and the absence of Felipe Berchesi is important. But a win is more urgent for Uruguay in the rankings. Los Teros win a thriller that will go down to the last play of the game.

PJ: Los Teros will surely want to bounce back after last week’s shocker. Spain have never impressed me much.

PT: Uruguay’s 10 changes will make the world of difference. Spain is missing a few familiar names too. Advantage Teros.

VR: Uruguay learned its lesson against Germany, but it won’t fail again. Spain will give them A great match Spain but Los Teros will prevail.

ROMANIA (16) vs CANADA (18)
Saturday, November 19, 18:00 Bucharest

A virtual split here with Canada only slight favorites against a menacing Romania.

BR: I’ve gone back and forth on this all week and truth be told I’m worried. That scrum is very intimidating and Canada is going to need some help from the referee, which I’m not sure they’ll get. This could come back to bite me but I’ll be patriotic – Canada find a way to stay out of the arm wrestle and get their revenge with a late score for the win.

DC: This will be a physical battle with Romania’s experience and kicking game the difference.

DS: Canada sorts out Romanian shenanigans at the breakdown and opens up the field.

IC: The most interesting Tier 2 match. Canada is coming off a dignified loss against Ireland but Romania in Bucharest is too strong.

JF: It’ll be close, and the Canadian backs on the bench will be the difference at the end.

PJ: The Oaks got just about everything right last week. The Eagles, at least in the first half, the opposite. Canada showed off its backline threat against Ireland but the scrum mostly struggled again. This one is all about the Canadians making maximum use of their attacking ball. Let’s go with fourth time lucky.

PT: Romania blew away the Eagles before fizzing out and having a lackluster second half. Canada was strong for 60 minutes against Ireland. Canada needs to secure revenge for their shocking late loss to the Oaks in Leicester.

VR: It’s Canucks time. They haven’t had a good year but last match against Ireland was positive and their defeat to Romania in the World Cup is fresh in their hearts. The Oaks were better than the USA, but Canada will finally step forward.

TONGA (15) vs USA (17)
Saturday, November 19, 17:00 San Sebastián

Not unanimous but Tonga are favorites against a USA team out of form and short on continuity.

BR: The Eagles were awful in Romania. Thankfully they have some major upgrades but Tonga are just so dangerous, especially on the counter-attack. Close call with the big Tongan runners just a little too much for the USA to handle.

DC: Tonga has had the USA’s number for the last few tests. Eagles coach John Mitchell has been seeing how combinations of players in his squad perform with eyes toward the future, so expect another close match with Tonga edging the Eagles by a try.

DS: Tonga lets in several American tries but unleashes their own offensive show.

IC: It promises to be a great match. The USA has been improving and will show this against Tonga.

JF: I’ve picked against the Eagles – correctly – two weeks in a row. This week, though, they have enough in the pack to do the job.

PJ: What a disappointing effort against Romania for the USA. If they play with structure, and I know that’s the plan, they should be able to blast past the Ikale Tahi.

PT: Wrong place at the wrong time for the Eagles. Were this a year from now the USA would be far better placed.

VR: The Eagles want to come back from the Bucharest defeat, but Tonga is still stronger. Hard fought until the end, the Tongan pack will make the difference.

SCOTLAND (9) vs ARGENTINA (8)
Saturday, November 19, 17:00 Edinburgh

Los Pumas are perhaps surprise favorites given their weak performance in Cardiff.

BR: Speaking of disappointments, Argentina didn’t look anything like themselves against Wales. Scotland should have beaten Australia and I’m tempted to go with them but I’ll side with the Pumas, who find just enough gas left in the tank to rebound and get a vital win.

DC: This will also be close, but Argentina will not want to lose a second consecutive match and will escape with a late win.

DM: Yeah, I’m going against the trend here but I think the Pumas will have an edge up front this week that’ll prove decisive.

DS: Argentina deny the Scots a last-minute win for the second time in as many weeks.

IC: Argentina should demonstrate its World Cup semi-final quality at last.

PJ: So the Scots put on a bit of a show against the Aussies, eh? They’ll take heart from that — but the Pumas and their scrum are a whole different beast. Nonetheless, the Scots have won this match-up the last two times out. But with ranking points on the line, I think we’ll see a fired up Argentina, and that will be the difference.

VR: The Scots improve with every match, but they still have to learn how to win. The Pumas haven’t showed much against Wales and will want to prove that was just one bad day.

PARAGUAY (39) vs COLOMBIA (41)
Saturday, November 19, 16:00 Luque

Paraguay are favorites at home but there are a few votes for the underdogs!

BR: I love a good story and Colombia have the makings of a great one. I see the visitors playing with immense passion and with more desire to win as they sneak by with a famous victory.

DC: Paraguay is ranked slightly ahead of Colombia, but the latter emerges with bragging rights by a try.

DM: Home field is the difference. Colombia is closing this gap quickly.

IC: Colombia has come very far but the home side in such fixtures is advantaged. Paraguay will be too strong in the contact and is coming off solid warm-up matches.

PT: Were this five years ago Paraguay would be expected to win by at least 25 points. Today with Colombia’s significant rise it ought to be a highly competitive match.

VR: Colombia’s time is coming, but Paraguay is still in front for now. The match will be even until the last 20 minutes, but Paraguay’s experience in the top South American division and in Argentina will make the difference in the end.

CHILE (27) vs SOUTH KOREA (30)
Saturday, November 19, 18:00 Santiago

Los Cóndores aren’t quite unanimous favorites but close enough.

BR: Chile were comfortable winners last week but it was a lackluster performance, and I felt Korea played the better rugby when they took care of the ball. It should be closer this week, but the Chilean set piece is superior and the backs just about good enough to get the job done again.

DC: Chile wins comfortably over South Korea.

DM: I learned my lesson last week. Was looking for better play from the Korean professionals and didn’t see it travel with them.

DS: Los Cóndores have lost their captain but rally to beat South Korea in close game.

JF: This might be closer than last week’s match, but Chile is the better side and will be rewarded again.

PT: Not going to be so easy this time but Chile still will get the job done. Korea’s changing in the halves will complicate rather than ease their improvement.

VR: Both teams know each other now and probably the Koreans will make things a bit more difficult. Chile is still superior.