Identifying Potential Rugby World Cup Hosts

Japan 2019 will be the ninth Rugby World Cup. It will be the first of a kind though as Asia and the Tier 2 both have their first opportunity. Where to from there? The answer is France, Ireland, or South Africa.

The three options for 2023 are a return to the norm. All have hosted Rugby World Cup matches in the past. Only Ireland has not been the prime host but it nonetheless hosted in 1991 and 1999. Matches include two quarter finals and a semi final.

With the three 2023 bidders all being prior hosts this does not mean first-time hosts should be put off bidding. To the contrary, identifying Rugby World Cup hosts is an exercise which demonstrates that there are many possibilities. The future is healthy.

Hosting Requirements
France, Ireland, and South Africa each have their own strong points. The same is true of Italy, who decided to cancel their bid in late September. South Africa may yet also be forced out. With government backing being mandatory their are unsolved issues in which the government has said it will block the hosting of a major rugby event in the country.

The final must be played at a venue seating 60,000 or more people. Supporting venues are free to range in terms of size with 15,000 being the lowest accepted capacity. Australia, England, France, and New Zealand all hosted the past four tournaments differently and Japan will be no exception. Of them France 2007 is unique in having all venues above 30,000.

The number of venues has varied. What has been consistent is the number of venues sought from a host nation. Various World Rugby senior officials have repeatedly named twelve stadiums as the preferred number.

Growing the game is a stated desire. The objectivity of this is questionable though given past voting behavior. Prior hosts New Zealand and England winning right to the 2011 and 2015 World Cups over Japan and Italy are cases in point.

World Rugby’s remaining criteria is profitability. The commercial success of the tournament is critical to the governing bodies task and vision of popularizing rugby.

Ticking Boxes
Established and developing unions can look at these criteria and dream. They merely need to tick these boxes and to offer a case as to why they merit the opportunity. This explains the three contrasting options for 2023.

In brief Ireland is basing its case on local culture, GAA stadiums and a proven market.  South Africa is a proud rugby country which hosted over twenty years ago and has modern facilities. France is offering an even larger return than that of England 2015. The new stadiums for Euro 2016 certainly make it the most profitable of the three.

2027 and Beyond
Rugby World Cup 2019 will continue with the existing a 20 team format. Changes for 2023 are possible with and expansion to 24 being a possibility. In the event of 24 teams the number of matches would likely increase from 48 to 52. This would mirror the format of the FIFA World Cup from 1982-1994.

This need not mean that more venues will be required. Indeed USA 1994 featured just nine stadiums. But perhaps France’s model in 2007 is the most useful. All ten French venues hosted either three or four matches pool each. With twelve the number could remain as such even when expanding to the round-of-16.

Interested countries thereby ought to identify twelve or more venues. Those with a variety of big cities would have an advantage. The same is true of those with a rugby culture, professional rugby, strong rugby neighbors and prior experience in Semi Finals.

Argentina
For 2027 Argentina is confirmed as bidding. The country has already acquired government backing and has a proven record in rugby. The prior hosting of the FIFA World Cup and Copa América further support the country as a candidate. There is no shortage of venues and Los Pumas happen to already utilize them and attract large crowds.

Argentina’s governing body is now operating a highly profitable organization. Ties are as strong as ever with Australia, New Zealand and South Africa. Relations also continue to flourish with all members of the Six Nations. Canada, Georgia, Japan and Romania will all play against Argentina or the Argentina XV in 2016-2017.

Regional leadership sees Argentina have a strong link to unions throughout the Americas. It is only going to increase with initiatives such as the Americas Rugby Championship. Bringing the two continents of the Americas together has long-term gains, including professionalism. Argentina’s professional status has expanded frontiers, making the future brighter than ever.

In addition to Argentina a number of other unions can be identified, some are prior hosts but many are not. South America has never hosted a Rugby World Cup and neither has North America. Yet there are two other countries within the Americas which have the means of hosting in the foreseeable future.

USA
The USA is regularly talked about as being a future host. As to when this may occur there is little optimism that it would be any time soon. Such a belief defies logic though. The fact is the USA met with World Rugby and was considering bidding to host the tournament in 2023.

Rugby in the country is at an all-time high. Encouraging signs are that this will only change for the better. The annual Las Vegas Sevens is a great success. The USA Eagles have played both New Zealand and Australia at Soldier Field and teams from both the Aviva Premiership and Guinness Pro 12 are exploring the market.

The USA has now embraced professionalism. The inaugural PRO Rugby season lived up to expectations, the five team competition is set to expand next season. Teams will add to their fan bases and the competition will have the involvement of new states and perhaps even Canada.

By putting together a combination of NFL, Major League Baseball, Major League Soccer, Rugby Sevens, and PRO Rugby facilities there is every reason to believe it could work. Indeed the 2017 Rugby Sevens World Cup will be in California’s Bay Area. Equally as important is World Rugby’s vested interest in the USA.

Canada
Often thought of as requiring bilateral relations with the USA, Canada is a large country with sizable cities spread across its southern territory. Canada need not co-host a Rugby World Cup with its southern neighbor. To the contrary it is more than capable of hosting the event alone.

Canada has a proud history of playing in every Rugby World Cup. The country is also a prior quarter-finalist and has beaten leading powers. But returning to the heights of the 1990’s will require Canada to enter professionalism. This path is greatly simplified by the USA’s PRO Rugby competition. Toronto and Vancouver have the means of joining.

It is venues in the above mentioned cities which would be central to a Canadian hosted Rugby World Cup. The men’s test team has attracted noteworthy crowds at Toronto’s BMO Field and Vancouver BC Place. The Rogers Centre, also in Toronto, is well placed to give the country a large central venue to go with that of BC Place in the west.

Current capacities are below 60,000 though through temporary seating or upgrades this can be overcome. Moreover, there are a range of venues over 50,000 that would enable a solid distribution of key matches.

Italy
Out of the race for 2023 but by no means out for good are the Italians. At some point the country will host a Rugby World Cup. Economics, geography, and history all favor the Central European country. Critics argue that little progress has been made to lift the level of the test team with the Pro 12 sides being a part of this problem.

Italy has no shortage of stadiums or cities to host the event. The dozen which were included in the cancelled bid were very impressive. The country is also well serviced by international flights and accommodation.

Lifting the standard of the test team remains the priority to convince the critics. Italy is yet to reach the quarter-finals of a Rugby World Cup. It is an important factor albeit not as crucial as some portray it. Wales did not make the quarter-finals of 1991 or 1999 yet were the official host of 1999. Japan is another example as is England who failed to make the final eight in 2015.

Spain
Spain’s proximity not only to France but also to Italy, the UK, and Ireland, make it an extremely viable market.  It also has a large population and has played in one Rugby World Cup. The national team has, in recent years in the European Nations Cup.

Those who claim rugby to be reclusive and non-expansive should watch the 2016 Top 14 Final. A world record for a club match saw 99,124 in attendance at Camp Nou. Earlier in the year 25,000 attended the Copa del Rey – Spanish club final in Valladolid.

French clubs Bayonne, Biarritz and Perpignan have all successfully relocated matches across the border into Spain. It was these initiatives which ultimately made it possible for the LNR to have the confidence to play the Top 14 Final in Barcelona. European Champions Cup matches have also been played in both Barcelona and San Sebastián.

By utilizing Barcelona and Madrid as the large venues the remainder of matches could adequately be spread. Also not out of the equation would be a co-hosting bid together with Portugal. Spain, though, has the means to go it alone.

Scotland and Wales
The Home Unions have hosted Rugby World Cup matches every eight years. Of them Wales has been the most frequent, doing so in 1991, 1999, 2007, and 2015. Ireland’s 2023 bid excludes Wales making it a first.

The small size of Wales and concentration of the population in and around the southern coast complicate matters. Hosting alone appears to be out of the question. A joint effort with Scotland may be Wales’ strongest card. With five to seven venues in each nation the tournament could genuinely work, provided smaller venues are upgraded or have temporary seating. Moreover neighboring England would relieve accommodation concerns in both nations.

For this to happen a look to New Zealand 2011 is explanatory. Many venues had temporary seating. Indeed Nelson, which hosted three matches, had a capacity of 18,000 for the tournament. 13,000 of these seats were temporary. One or more Welsh venues could replicate this.

Australia
2003 is now thirteen years ago and come 2027 it will almost be double this. Australia was initially in the running to host in 2019 but pulled out. A return to Australia at some point is highly likely. The local market received the 2003 tournament well in general. Certain venues struggled to reach capacity but there was an overload issue with Brisbane, Melbourne and Perth all hosting 7, 5 and 5 pool matches respectively.

Since 2003 Australia’s professionalism has grown. In Super Rugby the Western Force and Melbourne Rebels have joined. This has expanded the overall market though it is Sydney and Brisbane which continue to be the strongholds. A limit of four games per venue could be a tremendous success.

The following table compares the stadiums likely to be used by the respective unions. They are listed in terms of capacity from highest the lowest. A total of twelve venues has been listed for each. This is the number to have predominantly featured under the existing format. All venues are listed with their existing capacities as stated.

Argentina	USA	Canada	Italy	Spain	Scotland & Wales	Australia
Buenos Aires (64,000)	New York (82,500)	Edmonton (56,302)	Milan (81,277)	Barcelona (99,354)	Cardiff (74,500)	Sydney (75,000)
Córdoba (57,000)	Philadelphia (69,596)	Montreal (56,040)	Rome (72,698)	Madrid (81,044)	Edinburgh (67,144)	Melbourne (56,357)
La Plata (53,000)	Boston (66,829)	Vancouver (54,320)	Naples (60,240)	Valencia (55,000)	Glasgow (51,866)	Adelaide (53,583)
Buenos Aires (50,000)	Chicago (61,500)	Toronto (53,506)	Bari (58,248)	Seville (42,500)	Cardiff (33,316)	Brisbane (52,500)
Rosario (41,000)	Denver (50,398)	Calgary (35,560)	Florence (47,290)	Zaragoso (34,596)	Swansea (21,088)	Sydney (44,000)
Mendoza (40,268)	San Francisco (44,046)	Winnipeg (33,500)	Palermo (37,619)	San Sebastián (32,076)	Aberdeen (20,866)	Perth (43,500)
Santa Fé (40,000)	San Diego (40,162)	Regina (33,427)	Bologna (38,279)	Málaga (30,044)	Kilmarnock (17,891)	Gold Coast (27,400)
Mar del Plata (35,354)	Las Vegas (35,500)	Toronto (30,991)	Genoa (36,599)	Gijón (30,000)	Wrexham (15,500)	Townsville (26,500)
Tucumán (32,700)	Houston (22,039)	Ottawa (24,000)	Padua (32,420)	Vigo (29,000)	Dundee (14,223)	Canberra (25,011)
San Juan (25,000)	Salt Lake City (20,212)	Hamilton (22,500)	Rome (30,000)	Valladolid (26,512)	Llanelli (14,870)	Wollongong (23,000)
Resistencia (23,000)	Columbus (19,968)	Moncton (20,000)	Torino (27,958)	Villarreal (24,890)	Newport (8,500)	Newcastle (23,000)
Salta (20,408)	Sacramento (11,442)	St. John’s (10,000)	Udine (25,144)	Granada (22,369)	Pontypridd (7,861)	Gosford (20,059)

• The Two Buenos Aires venues are River Plate and Vélez Sarsfield
• The Two Toronto venues are Rogers Centre and BMO Field.
• The Two Rome venues are Stadio Olimpio and Stadio Flaminio.
• The Italian venues are identical to those included in the canceled 2023 bid.
• The Two Cardiff venues are Principality Stadium and Cardiff City Stadium.
• The Two Sydney venues are Stadium Australia and Sydney Football Stadium.