ARN Forecast June 17-19 – Special Edition!

Week 2 of the June international series, and this week we’ve got a heap of games on deck! Not only are there tour matches involving Canada, Argentina, and the USA, but we’ve got Kenya visiting Brazil and the Nations Cup featuring Uruguay. And wait… there’s more! The Rugby World Cup Qualifiers are on the go in the Americas North region, so some of our gurus will have a crack at those games as well!

Last week saw a pretty good effort from our brainy scribes. All three sides that were heavily favored won, but it was very close in a couple matches. Victor nearly got the last laugh when Italy came up just short to Argentina, and the Canadian contingent were saddened when the home team couldn’t ground the ball at the death against Japan. Paul was the only one to pick Uruguay over Romania… what was he thinking?

This week we’ve got a record 11 legendary characters to cast their votes, though not all will preside over every match. All four of the ‘main event’ Tier 1/2 matches have been covered, and a good chunk of experts opted to have a go at the ‘undercard’ involving Tier 3 sides.

Our roster has grown by one this week, as for the first time Rugby United is represented by Dan Mason, who pitches up in Boston and manages the Rugby Global account. Will his worldly vision give him an unfair advantage?

Also from the USA is Curtis Reed from ThisIsAmericanRugby, Doug Coil from DJ Coil Rugby, Junoir Blaber of the Rugby Wrap Up, Jake Frechette from Rugby Today, and of course ARN’s own Ted Hardy.

From the Southern regions of the Americas are Uruguay’s Ignacio Chans from El Observador, and two Brazil nuts – Victor Ramalho from Portal do Rugby and Paul Tait of this parish.

Lastly the cold and lowly Canadians are fronted by newly-hitched (sorry ladies!) Patrick Johnston of The Province, and ARN pretender Bryan Ray.

 

TIER 1/2	ESP v URU	CAN v RUS	USA v ITA	ARG v FRA
Bryan Ray Americas Rugby News	URU +12	CAN +16	ITA +12	FRA +5
Curtis Reed ThisIsAmericanRugby	URU +14	CAN +21	ITA +5	FRA +7
Dan Mason Rugby United	URU +14	CAN +24	ITA +10	FRA +12
Doug Coil DJ Coil Rugby	URU +3	CAN +5	USA +2	ARG +6
Ignacio Chans El Observador	URU +4	CAN +15	ITA +9	ARG +4
Jake Frechette Rugby Today	URU +3	RUS +2	ITA +4	ARG +7
Junior Blaber Rugby Wrap Up	URU +5	CAN +3	ITA +6	ARG +5
Patrick Johnston The Province	URU +10	CAN +17	ITA +8	ARG +5
Paul Tait Americas Rugby News	URU +2	CAN +18	ITA +15	ARG +2
Ted Hardy Americas Rugby News	URU +5	CAN +10	USA +3	ARG +3
Victor Ramalho Portal do Rugby	URU +8	CAN +15	ITA +5	ARG +3

 

SPAIN vs URUGUAY
Saturday, June 18, 16:00 Bucharest

BR: Uruguay were awful against Romania but they simply have to rebound. Their forwards should set the platform for a comfortable win.

CR: The Uruguayan forwards are simply going to be too much for Spain.

DM: Was so back & forth on this one. Spain let one slip away versus Namibia last time. That may have been their best chance to win in Romania.

IC: Los Teros suffered a huge setback against Romania. This serves as motivation to play a final game with world rankings on the line against Spain, who have had a good tournament with some important players missing. It is going to be a very close match but I see a Uruguayan victory.

JF: Uruguay have to play better than they did last week. Don’t they?

PJ: Uruguay have those forwards and they can kick too.

PT: This is the match that Uruguay underlined pre tournament as the most winnable and Los Teros will, indeed, be expected to deliver. The problem is that the loss against Romania was on Tuesday, giving Los Teros very little time to recover. Nonetheless based on form throughout the year this is a test for Uruguay to complete a win.

VR: Spain is showing great evolution with good pace and ability to scoring tries, but Uruguay is used to tough matches and showed this two times against the Argentina XV.

 

CANADA vs RUSSIA
Saturday, June 18, 15:00 Calgary

BR: I can’t help but feel Japan should have lost last week, and expect new coach Anscombe to have the boys fired up against Russia. If the Bears had stars like Ostrikov, Ostroushko, and Simplikevich this might be a different story. As it is, Canada by a bunch.

CR: Canada were impressive last week and should have beaten Japan. Who knows what’s up with Russia?

DM: The World Rugby rankings say these teams are close. Don’t buy it!

JF: Canada has looked really good for stretches of matches, but the loss last week again showed their struggle to play a full 80. I smell more heartache for Canada.

PJ: Playing at home, after last week’s ‘almost’ performance, and with (hopefully) a better kicking effort, this should be a big show.

PT: The right opponent at the right time for Canada. Russia is the ideal opponent to squeeze between Japan and Italy. Canada will win this week and with goal kicking not being so wayward the North Americans will enjoy a memorable victory in Calgary.

VR: Russia will be without sevens players and Canada is too strong for them now. Canada needs the victory.

 

USA vs ITALY
Saturday, June 18, 18:00 San Jose

BR: Italy are traditionally about 20 points better than the Eagles. I expect to see some improvement from the Americans but not enough to overcome that difference. The Azzurri have class in the right places, Favaro and Campagnaro in particular will make a significant difference.

CR: The Eagles are going to be putting out a very strong lineup and they have given Tier 1 teams a run at home the last few years. Their depth may not match up with Italy but they have some players that are equals.

DM: Hard not to like what we saw last week in Argentina from the Italians. Looks like a serious business trip for them.

JF: Italy will likely have the advantage at scrum time, and the Eagles’ midfield defense is a question mark.

PJ: The Americans are improved but with Italy fresh off a close loss to Argentina, gotta think the tourists will have the upper hand.

PT: Having failed to secure a home test last weekend this Saturday’s match against Italy sees the Eagles entering with a lack of preparation. This will play into Italy’s hands. The Central Europeans were sharp against Argentina and are not in Northern California to muck around. Italy to be too well organized for the Eagles.

VR: Very interesting match to see PRO Rugby’s effect on the Eagles. The Americans are physical, but Italy is mentally refreshed and clearly more confident with O’Shea.

 

ARGENTINA vs FRANCE
Sunday, June 19, 18:10 Tucumán

Home field advantage to Los Pumas, but Les Bleus are so unpredictable…

BR: Les Bleus have nothing to lose, so I’m expecting something  wacky. Los Pumas looked tired last week and could easily have lost to the Azzurri. I’ll take France by bewilderment.

CR: France always seems to pull out results when we don’t think they will.

DM: Just too much talent in that French side for me, even on the road.

JF: Argentina did not look great last weekend, but the French squad is young and hasn’t had a lot of time together.

PJ: This will be a fun game to watch no matter what.

PT: Argentina have lucked out by facing France at a time when Guy Noves is without players to the Top 14 Semi Finals. Les Bleus, though, will not back down and the team is to be very competent. But Daniel Hourcade’s mission to gain World Rankings points should see the players up for this and winning in his town town.

VR: Los Pumas achieved an important victory against Italy to recover its confidence. France will play completely renovated, with 11 dubutantes. Les Bleus will show improvement, but Tucumán’s environment will boost Argentina.

 

TIER 3	BRA v KEN	JAM v BRB	T&T v GUY	CYM v BDA
Curtis Reed ThisIsAmericanRugby	BRA +12	JAM +5	T&T +5	BDA +5
Dan Mason Rugby United	BRA +3	JAM +15	T&T +4	CYM +5
Doug Coil DJ Coil Rugby	KEN +6	JAM +5	T&T +3	CYM +3
Ignacio Chans El Observador	BRA +7	JAM +8	T&T +10	CYM +10
Jake Frechette Rugby Today	BRA +5	JAM +1	T&T +1	CYM +1
Junior Blaber Rugby Wrap Up	KEN +7	JAM +9	GUY +7	BDA +9
Paul Tait Americas Rugby News	KEN +12	JAM +5	GUY +3	CYM +15
Victor Ramalho Portal do Rugby	BRA +3	BRB +18	T&T +10	CYM +10

 

BRAZIL vs KENYA
Friday, June 17, 17:00 Macapá

Kenya are ranked higher, but Brazil have the momentum.

BR: Brazil beat the USA. That means they have to beat Kenya, right?

CR: I’m picking Brazil, because why not?

DM: This is basically Kenya’s ‘A’ side making the trip to Brazil. As we’ve seen, Brazil can be tough at home. They upset the US 24-23 there in February & almost beat Uruguay as well (33-29 loss) in the 2016 Americas Rugby Championship. Going against the grain and snagging Brazil with an upset win.

JF: I want results that show Brazil is a side on the rise so that the USA loss doesn’t seem so bad.

PJ: Brazil are a fun team on attack but I’ve seen approximately 20 minutes of Kenya XVs in the last three years so can’t make a pick.

PT: Brazil has shown tremendous improvement but it is the East African country that is knocking on the door of qualifying for a Rugby World Cup. Kenya to be too strong here but the ‘Hemispheres Cup’ will hopefully become a regularity and with it Brazil will be capable of winning down the line.

VR: Both teams will be without sevens players and the venue is new even for Brazil – extremely hot with a crowd unused to rugby. Tough call, but Os Tupis can do it.

 

JAMAICA vs BARBADOS
Saturday, June 18, 15:00 Ewarton

Seems to be a clear advantage for Jamaica, with Victor the lone wolf picking Barbados.

CR: Based on past results this should be Jamaica.

DM: I feel like I’m going a bit low here, especially with Jamaica at home.

JF: I played with some Jamaicans a while back. They were pretty good, so…

PT: Quite an evenly matched fixture will see free-running rugby with both sides capable of winning. Expect the Jamaicans to pull out a surprise or two and sneak in a narrow victory.

VR: Finally Barbados is facing someone with a lower ranking in the top division and on home soil.

 

TRINIDAD & TOBAGO vs GUYANA
Saturday, June 18, 16:00 Port of Spain

The home team are the favorites but not overwhelmingly so…

BR: I’ve played rugby in Trinidad and it was an awesome trip so I’m going with them.

DM: Am giving T&T the home field advantage in this one. They are the defending South Region Champs & defending Caribbean Champs (over Mexico last year).

JF: Never pick against an ampersand.

PT: The match of the weekend in the Caribbean will be that of Trinidad & Tobago vs Guyana. Both sides have won matches and their game is genuinely a very tough one to call. Guyana enter with slightly better form giving them the potential to win this one on the road.

VR: Great game and tough to choose. Guyana will be without sevens players in Brazil, so take the home side.

 

CAYMAN ISLANDS vs BERMUDA
Saturday, June 18, 19:00 Grand Cayman

Caymans are on the up-and-up, but can Bermuda upset the party?

BR: Despite my old roommate living in Bermuda, I’m going to side with the Caymans on this one. I’m a fan of their commentary team. No idea on a scoreline, as I’ve seen very limited rugby from both.

CR: Which tax haven do you prefer? I like Bermuda.

DM: Tough call. The Caymans got a big win over USA South last time out but were in and out of the game versus Barbados. Bermuda may have the advantage with the boot, but the Caymans are stronger overall and should prevail at home.

JF: Simply going with the home side on this one.

PT: The Cayman Islands have been enjoying a rich run of form and rugby in the nation is also on a high. This will continue on Saturday with a win over Bermuda which, in turn, will set up a very interesting match against Mexico.

VR: Cayman will be too strong at home.