ARN Forecast June 11-13

It’s time for predictions! The ARN Forecast returns and we’re kicking it up a notch with an impressive roster of rugby writers from across the Americas! This time we’ll be testing our punditry for the June internationals – those ones involving the Americas teams anyway – over the next three weeks. Before we get to the good stuff, here’s here’s a run-down of our draftees:

The one and only Patrick Johnston comes from Vancouver on the West Coast, but we’ll forgive him for that. Digital sports editor and rugby writer extraordinaire for The Province, and host of the Try & Tackle podcast. Follow PJ on Twitter @risingaction

Confident and assured is Curtis Reed, who enters the race for the first time with high hopes. You’ve no doubt been reading his work for several years now on ThisIsAmericanRugby, a staple for US rugby readers. Also a regular on the Try & Tackle podcast. Follow Curtis on Twitter @ThisIsAmerRugby

Media Manager for Los Teros at RWC 2015 and lead rugby writer for El Observador, Ignacio Chans has joined the fold representing the wonderful country of Uruguay. Follow Ignacio on Twitter @ignaciochans

Standing up for Rugby Today is numbers guru Jake Frechette, whose comprehensive statistical analysis is unmatched in American rugby circles. Will his counting skills give him the edge over the wordsmiths? Follow Jake on Twitter @JakeHFrechette

Returning from the great state of Delaware is Doug Coil, a rugby crusader who now makes his home at DJ Coil Rugby, and also contributes to a number of other pages. Follow Doug on Twitter @djcoil

Junoir Blaber, the ‘Rugby Rain Man’ himself, fancies himself the best green-seer of the bunch and is Ghana’s most notorious rugby export, but lives and breathes New York air these days. He is a senior correspondent for the Rugby Wrap Up. Follow JB on Twitter @junoirblaber

Checking in from the sweet sunshine of São Paulo is Victor Ramalho, where he writes for Brazil’s Portal do Rugby, having previously spent time with the CBRu. Follow Victor on Twitter @PortaldoRugby

…and of course the ARN editors Bryan, Paul, and Ted!

JUNE 11-13	ARG v ITA	CAN v JPN	ROM v URU
Bryan Ray Americas Rugby News	ARG +7	CAN +3	ROM +12
Curtis Reed ThisIsAmericanRugby	ARG +10	JPN +14	ROM +8
Doug Coil DJ Coil Rugby	ARG +14	JPN +7	ROM +5
Ignacio Chans El Observador	ARG +15	JPN +5	ROM +3
Jake Frechette Rugby Today	ARG +6	JPN +8	ROM +5
Junior Blaber Rugby Wrap Up	ARG +10	JPN +5	ROM +2
Patrick Johnston The Province	ARG +10	CAN +2	ROM +6
Paul Tait Americas Rugby News	ARG +20	JPN +3	URU +1
Ted Hardy Americas Rugby News	ARG +15	JPN +5	ROM +3
Victor Ramalho Portal do Rugby	ITA +1	JPN +5	ROM +10

 

ARGENTINA vs ITALY
Saturday, June 11
15:45 ART, 14:45 EDT

Los Pumas are clear favorites at home, but there is one dissenter…

BR: The Pumas are too familiar with each other and of course have home field advantage, but I wonder if they won’t be quite so sharp in their first international of the season. Conor O’Shea will have a positive influence on the Azzurri, I expect them to be up for this despite the absence of Parisse. Argentina to win, but Italy to stay in it with maybe a late score keeping it close.

CR: With Italy still getting accustomed to a new coach and energy behind Argentine rugby recently, I’m going with the Pumas.

IC: Despite a very bad start to Super Rugby, Argentina should benefit from four months of Southern Hemisphere rugby. As happened in the World Cup, that should be a big advantage when playing with European rivals, especially a perennial identity-seeking Italy.

PT: “Los Jaguares are not Los Pumas.” So frequent has this line made it to print in 2016 that it is virtually a punchline. It does, however, carry with it a lot of truth and Daniel Hourcade has been clear that many Jaguares are not going to play for Los Pumas this year at all. With an average of seven changes per week the South Americans have not been settled. This will change in June with regularity returning under Hourcade. His team will run away in the second half in Santa Fé to win comfortably.

VR: Argentina’s starting team for this Saturday will basically be the Jaguares. It’s a squad that performed well during the World Cup but is suffering in Super Rugby with traveling issues and fatigue. They won’t get a break from the marathon and are now lacking in confidence. Italy on the other hand will be without Parisse, yes, but this might be good for the Italians to start a new life under Conor O’Shea. With the atmosphere renovated, more time to rest and prepare, distance from local criticism, and a good history playing in South America it will be a good day for the Azzurri. With Gori and Canna together they can produce an upset in Santa Fe.

 

CANADA vs JAPAN
Saturday, June 11
15:00 PDT, 18:00 EDT

Everyone but the Canadians are picking Japan to win. Do the locals have the inside track?

BR: I like the looks of the Canadian pack, some very good young forwards who could become first choice players going forward. A little worried about the Japanese midfield and of course Tanaka is a world class scrumhalf. Japan’s scrum is also very good, but if Canada can get the ball out quickly they can mitigate its effect. I’m taking the home side in what should be a very close match.

CR: This one will be closer than some might think but Canada has too many of their players missing. Japan are missing players too but when it comes to depth versus depth, Japan wins.

IC: Canada is a team in a rebuilding phase, and Japan has some lessons from the Sunwolves experience to show. First match of the tour should complicate things a little for the Brave Blossoms, and also the absence of Goromaru and Leitch, but they can come out with a victory in Canada.

PT: Very much looking forward to this one and hopefully the attendance is strong. It is the match of the weekend not only in the Americas but is more interesting to me than Samoa vs Georgia and Australia vs England which are to be very hard fought fixtures. Japan is without captain Leitch and star fullback Goromaru but the players are professionals and have had Super Rugby and/or Asian Championship matches to prepare. A  competitive opening half to see the Brave Blossoms respond in the second half with Japan’s cohesion sealing the result.

VR: An interesting match lies ahead in Vancouver when we will see the first full Japan squad after the amazing moments of the World Cup. I hope for a great atmosphere at BC Place, that could be seen in the future in the Americas Rugby Championship. The fact is Japan is now a better team, stronger both in the set piece and open play. They are suffering from the same problems of Argentina in Super Rugby, and both Japan and Canada are mixing new faces with veterans. The quality players missing will be tougher for Canada to replace, while the experience of the Japanese players in high level competition may be the difference.

 

ROMANIA vs URUGUAY
Monday, June 13
20:00 ROM, 13:00 EDT

Set to be played on Monday, the Nations Cup fixture looks firmly in Romania’s grasp.

BR: Uruguay are on the rise but Romania are rolling out their grizzled vets in the Nations Cup. I think the scoreline will be similar to the match against Namibia. Los Teros won’t be intimidated but Romania have a bit too much bulk and experience to let this one slip.

CR: No particular reason other than Romania seem due for a big summer.

IC: Thursday’s loss against Emerging Italy was hard to swallow for Uruguay who reduced a 24 point deficit but couldn’t win it. It does have a positive side in the fact that it was a very young starting XV, because coach Meneses was resting many players for the capped matches. With almost Uruguay’s full XV against Romania, it will be an excellent opportunity to see Los Teros’ new game plan against a Tier 2 team. Nevertheless, home field advantage and quality roster should give Romania a narrow win.

PT: Hard to bet against Romania precisely for the reasons Ignacio has outlined. Uruguay, though, have had extensive preparation and are worth a gamble. Romania’s performance against Namibia was unstable and backing up against a fresh Teros side will be no walk in the park. If Uruguay land their goals they will sneak in a win.

VR: Uruguay showed great improvement against Italia Emergenti and deserved a victory. But Romania is playing at home with a strong pack that can neutralize Uruguay’s pack. Uruguay will play in equal terms until the end, but Romania will prevail.