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Many people, myself included, have put forward the idea of Rugby World Cups expanding from the current 20-team format to one of 24. The central argument behind the change is that there are teams just as good as some of those at Rugby World Cups who miss out.
Uruguay Passes the Test
At this year’s Rugby World Cup Uruguay played for the first time in twelve years and came out of the tournament with notably better respect than many had anticipated. This was a team that did not win a game and nor was Uruguay expected to. In fact, pre-World Cup predictions for Uruguay were grim with big losses having been predicted.
Uruguay’s performances of 54-9 against Wales, 65-3 against Australia, 47-15 against Fiji and 60-3 against England showcased an outmatched side playing with great spirit and earning praise as a result. Suggesting progress had been made from 2003 would be quite the understatement. Indeed in Rugby World Cup 2003 Uruguay lost 72-6 against South Africa, 60-13 against Samoa and 113-10 against England.
At that World Cup Uruguay recorded a 24-12 win over Georgia, one of the two biggest improvers at Rugby World Cup 2015, the other being Japan. Georgia has been undergoing extraordinary development with wins against Canada, Romania, Samoa, Tonga and the USA in recent years. All of these teams have played at every World Cup since the competition was altered from 16 to 20 teams in 1999. Georgia, in contract debuted in 2003.
Georgia Pressuring Italy
Looking back to 1999 is an interesting exercise as Uruguay did better than Italy, a team yet to deliver in World Cups despite fifteen years of playing in the Six Nations and five in the Guinness Pro 12. Indeed Uruguay defeated Spain in 1999 while Italy was winless, losing against England, New Zealand and Tonga.
In Rugby World Cups 2003, 2007, 2011 and 2015 Italy finished third in pool play, thereby never reaching the Quarter Finals. Georgia achieved the same feat this year as did Japan but the Asians won three rather than two matches. Back in 2007 Fiji did even better, reaching the Quarter Finals.
Italy’s status could therefore be said to very much be in limbo. There is no denying that Italy has what it takes to reach a Quarter Final but doing so is proving to be an overdue task. Indeed I ran a poll on twitter recently asking who will reach the Quarter Finals first – Italy or Japan. 74% clicked Japan, far more than Italy who got 26%.
Overachieving has an impact on opinion with calls to reduce World Cups to 16 being few and far between. Uruguay got through the toughest pool in the history of the tournament while the importance of Georgia’s win over Tonga was never allowed to be fully commended due to Japan’s remarkable result against South Africa.
Namibian Progression
Tough encounters against Argentina and New Zealand were followed by a one point win over Namibia, the country with the worst record of all countries at Rugby World Cups. As in Rugby World Cups 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011 this year’s World Cup was another winless one for the Africans thereby taking their record to 19 losses and 0 wins.
Looking deeper, though, Namibia is another country to have a stronger team now than previously. In 2003 Namibia lost 142-0 against Australia but this year lost 58-14 against New Zealand. Such a scoreline was far closer to that of Namibia against Fiji and Samoa in Rugby World Cup 2011 than it was not only to that of Australia in 2003 but also to South Africa and Wales in 2011.
The pattern is familiar to Uruguay and others in that an increase in funding from World Rugby combined with more players being exposed to a higher level of rugby has decreased the potential for teams to be beaten by scorelines comparable to those from previous World Cups when underfunded teams were often put to the slaughter.
It is this very policy which World Rugby is currently utilizing with the goal of lifting the level of more countries. Before the World Cup this year Namibia prepared by hosting a two-test tour against Russia and the Africans came out with impressive wins. The 39-19 and 45-5 results were different to the previous outings which Russia won – 31-12 and 30-15.
The second of Namibia’s losses was in 2010 and was part of Russia’s preparation for Rugby World Cup 2011. The Russians qualified ahead of Romania who subsequently eliminated Uruguay in repechage to go on to compete in New Zealand but neither Russia not Romania would win a game. Four years on Romania broke Canadian hearts to win in Leicester.
Signs of Expansion to 24
Since the World Cup there has been talk regarding a possible Romanian tour of South America in June 2016, including a test match against Argentina and possible tests elsewhere in the continent. In years gone by such tours have been slim to non-existent with Romania instead playing the Nations Cup every June and lacking international matches against Six Nations unions.
It has been a problem shared by Tier 2 and Tier 3 unions the world over. For a number of years both Canada and the USA have been wanting no fewer than two annual home tests against Tier 1 opposition and improved schedules in November while Romania and Georgia continue to require a solution to the lack of promotion into the Six Nations.
Attending to the desires of such unions is in the greater interests of the global game and signs are such that it now appears that World Rugby is indeed committed to expanding the Rugby World Cup. The Americas Rugby Cup will greatly benefit all involved and to prepare both Chile and Brazil are involved this month against European opponents.
Chile’s two-match tour of Spain saw Los Condores overwhelmed while Brazil is expected to have a tough assignment against Germany in the first test this coming Saturday. Notwithstanding the fact that these fixtures were made possible is a significant accomplishment in itself and more are all but certain to follow given the record breaking profits made from England 2015.
Also being played this month was the Four-Nations tournament in Hong Kong in which the host nation was joined by Portugal, Russia and Zimbabwe. Russia’s win meant the Europeans were elevated above Canada and Uruguay in the World Rankings.
All four involved much like Chile, Spain, Romania and Uruguay are strong contenders for Rugby World Cup 2019 qualification. The problem is there will not be places for all of them. 7 of the 8 spots up for grabs will likely go to Canada, Fiji, Namibia, Romania, Samoa, Tonga and the USA leaving just one for Uruguay and those playing this month to contest.
Could it be that World Rugby is actively preparing countries for an expanded World Cup in 2023? I am convinced that this is indeed heavily involved in the thinking.
