Implications of RWC 2019 Draw being made in 2016

Confirmation that the draw for Rugby World Cup 2019 draw will be made some time in 2016 brings new meaning to the importance of international rugby in 2016. The lesson of England crashing out at the pool stage after losing against Wales and Australia ought to be noted by all.

England had been drawn into the toughest ever pool in World Cup history based on the rankings allocation system. Opponents Australia and Wales were, at the time of the draw, ranked in different bands to England which resulted in Argentina having the easier opponent in Tonga than England did in Wales.

The band system classifies the teams from 1-4, 5-8 and 9-12. Wales, in December 2012, was ranked in band 3 while Samoa was in band 2. For Scotland it was beneficial as Scotland was band 3 but avoided a higher band 2 opponent, namely Argentina, England or Ireland.

The automatic qualifiers for Rugby World Cup 2019 must therefore put all efforts into winning all their matches to attain the highest possible ranking when the draw is made. As of now no date for the draw has yet been made official but it is highly likely that it will be made at the end of international competition as defined by the World Rugby Player Release Windows. In other words in December 2016.

In 2012 Wales went from a Semi Finalists in Rugby World Cup 2011 to ranked 9th due to having struggled in June and November. Home losses against the, then, lower ranked Argentina and Samoa saw both reaping the rewards from the draw.

A similar scenario is now entirely possible for Wales, again ranked 4th in the world. Wales will play three tests in New Zealand in June 2016. Tough tasks also await England and Ireland who will play three tests in Australia and South Africa respectably. France will play two in Argentina but be without players from Top 14 Semi Finalist clubs.

Scotland will have it comparatively easier but cannot take anything for granted. The Scots are to play two tests in Japan in June and provided the Six Nations campaign can be negotiated better than it was earlier this year they could realistically be safe in band 2 heading into November.

The bottom placed Six Nations side, Italy, will also have a tour in which they will feel they can benefit from. The Italians need a lot of points to reach band 2 but have it in themselves to succeed. Wins against Canada and the USA in June combined with other results going their way will lay a platform for being 8th in the world come December.

The November tour will complicate matters for Italy but, the FIR has the opportunity to prepare accordingly. The November 2012 home series saw Italy facing Tonga, New Zealand and Australia in that order. An altered tour could see Italy playing a second match against a Tier 2 opponent in place of Australia. Canada, Fiji, Japan, Samoa or the USA being sides which Italy can beat at home.

Currently Italy sits in 12th on 72,74 points compared to England in 8th on 79,77. Georgia, Japan and Scotland are the remaining band 3 sides at present. A history making appearance in the Quarter Finals could be about more than luck, if the FIR act.