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Whisper it softly, but Canada have an enormous opportunity on Saturday. Yes, against Italy – fully professional Six Nations participants, clear favorites by the bookies, haven’t lost to the Canucks since 2000. And yet, if there was ever a time for them to be beaten, it’s now.
Much has been made of Sergio Parisse’s absence, and rightly so given his obvious standing as their spiritual leader and a world class player. The stats, however, suggest that his absence is only marginally upsetting, with Italy’s win percentage virtually identical with or without him since he was named captain in 2008. The psychological effect is greater for Canada than Italy.
A combination of injuries and some odd selections will further boost Canada’s psyche heading in, not least the utterly bizarre dropping of Simone Favaro from match day squad completely. More than a few interested observers will tell you that he is their best openside flanker – there’s a reason he’s been signed by Pro 12 champions Glasgow Warriors – and he made a positive impression against France when he came on as a reserve. Mauro Bergamasco might be the romantic choice in the team, but Favaro is the right one, and Jacques Brunel has missed a beat by leaving him out.
The terrible Achilles injury to Andrea Masi is another serious blow. Already without first choice no12 Luca Morisi, the Azzurri will now roll out Gonzalo García, who is a strong player but only just back from a serious ankle sprain and short of match fitness. Outside him will be Tommaso Benvenuti, a talented player who himself is struggling with injury. Why Michele Campagnaro – by far Italy’s best attacking back – has been left on the bench is a question again only Brunel can answer.
The change in the front row is another weird one, but probably more horses for courses, with Matías Agüero and Martín Castrogiovanni likely to come on around the 50 minute mark anyway. In any even the scrum will be a problem, with Lorenzo Cittadini arguably better than Castro at tighthead and the massive Quintin Geldenhuys in the engine room providing huge go-forward. With Alessandro Zanni, Francesco Minto, and the imperious Joshua Furno all strong lineout targets, Canada will have to be intelligent in that area as well. Short, sharp throws, and move it away quickly from the maul.
If the aim in the set piece is for parity, or at the very least to win the ball however messy, the game plan must be to put those forwards to the sword in loose play, and Canada’s selection appears to be geared for just that. Jebb Sinclair and Tyler Ardron are huge boosts to the side, and should provide much-needed physical presence around the middle of the park. Nanyak Dala and John Moonlight will be tasked to stay wide and produce quick ball when it gets there.
To that end, the selection of Jamie Mackenzie at scrumhalf is the giveaway. Gordon McRorie hasn’t quite meshed with the game plan – or Nathan Hirayama – something that the coaches must take some responsibility for, while Phil Mack is the impact player whose distributing isn’t always that sharp. Mackenzie has the best pass of the three in both accuracy and width. The key will be how fast he can get it away from the breakdown. If the forwards can give him a platform and he moves the ball quickly, Nathan Hirayama will have time to work his magic and either use his boot to put Italy under pressure or move the ball wide to the danger men, where Canada has found the most success in recent games.
A noticeable absentee on the right side is Jeff Hassler, who is reportedly suffering from a calf problem picked up against Ireland. While he is certainly a loss, it is comforting to have a player the quality of Phil Mackenzie to step in. Hopefully Hassler will be ready to go against France, or more importantly against Romania, but Mackenzie is more than capable of playing a similar role. Thankfully Matt Evans appears to be ok after coming off second best in a huge collision with Keith Earls on Saturday.
The midfield duo of Connor Braid and Ciaran Hearn will be tasked with getting the ball wide, but neither should be shy to take it up and test their Italian counterparts, especially early on. Making a clear decision quickly will be critical. Hearn, in particular, has had a tendency to be in two minds with ball in hand. At his best he is excellent, but he must avoid that pitfall and either move the ball quickly or attack the line head on and look for a clean offload.
Most will look at this game – and referee George Clancy – and assume it will be a plodder, and recent history from both sides suggests that might well be the case. The stakes on offer just might be enough to inspire something extra. The winner will be in a very strong position to finish in third place in Pool D, and by doing so earning automatic qualification for the 2019 World Cup. That would be a massive achievement given the horrendous run-in to the tournament, and this match must be the target. France are a much greater threat and only Romania follows.
Confidence will be everything, especially early on, and hopefully the likes of Sinclair and Ardron will boost the side in that regard. If they can minimize mistakes and not give cheap points away, the game is theirs to lose, despite what the punters are saying. Be stingy in defense, avoid the set piece, keep the tempo up, and spin to win. It’s all or nothing on Saturday.
