RWC Forecast Round 1

It’s time for predictions! Americas Rugby News is stepping it up for the World Cup, inviting other writers from around the Americas to test their mettle against the ARN editors. Before we get into the goods, here’s who we have this week, joining regulars Paul, Bryan, and Ted:

Christian Gómez Csher calls Buenos Aires his home and is the editorial director of Rugby Fun and a columnist for Rugby Mania. Follow Chris on twitter @chrisgcsher

From the great state of Delaware comes Doug Coil, a rugby crusader who has his own page now, DJ Coil Rugby, and also contributes to Real-time Rugby and This Is American Rugby, among others. Follow Doug on twitter @djcoil

Junior Blaber, the ‘Rugby Rain Man’ himself, is Ghana’s greatest rugby export but lives and breathes New York air these days. He is a senior correspondent for the Rugby Wrap Up. Follow Junior on twitter @junoirblaber (yes, it’s spelled wrong on purpose)

The one and only Patrick Johnston comes from Vancouver on the West Coast, but we’ll forgive him for that. Digital editor and rugby writer for The Province, and host of the Try & Tackle podcast. Follow Patrick on twitter @risingaction

Victor Ramalho checks in from the sunshine of São Paulo where he writes for Brazil’s Portal do Rugby, having previously spent time with the CBRu. Follow Victor on twitter @victorsra

Without further adieu, here are our RWC 2015 Round 1 predictions!

 

ROUND 1	ENG v FIJ	TON v GEO	IRE v CAN	RSA v JPN	FRA v ITA	SAM v USA	WAL v URU	NZL v ARG
Bryan Ray Americas Rugby News	FIJ +5	GEO +2	IRE +27	RSA +15	FRA +21	SAM +12	WAL +60	NZL +14
Christian Gómez Csher Rugby Fun	ENG +17	TON +10	IRE +25	RSA +40	FRA +8	SAM +15	WAL +40	NZL +12
Doug Coil DJ Coil Rugby	ENG +14	TON +7	IRE +21	RSA +24	FRA +12	USA +3	WAL +27	NZL +17
Junior Blaber Rugby Wrap Up	ENG +15	TON +10	IRE +20	RSA +7	FRA +10	SAM +15	WAL +25	NZL +15
Patrick Johnston The Province	ENG +7	TON +10	IRE +20	RSA +20	FRA +15	USA +3	WAL +40	NZL +10
Paul Tait Americas Rugby News	ENG +40	GEO +3	IRE +30	RSA +33	FRA +5	USA +2	WAL +36	NZL +7
Ted Hardy Americas Rugby News	ENG +18	TON +8	IRE +26	RSA +24	FRA +12	SAM +10	WAL +30	NZL +15
Victor Ramalho Portal do Rugby	ENG +21	TON +5	IRE +25	RSA +35	FRA +20	SAM +15	WAL +50	NZL +15

 

ENGLAND v FIJI

Virtually unanimous that the home side will take this one, except for one deluded dissenter…

BR: Sure, it won’t happen, but I’m picking Fiji anyway. I’m desperate for there to be an exciting match right from the get-go to fire up this World Cup, which is kind of low on the hype-meter right now.

CGC: The Fijian side could be a problem for anybody, but England is in good shape and with confidence to solve any problem.

JB: Fiji are no slouches and their forwards are better than people think, but England at home, opening match, etc, etc, means they will be too hard to beat.

PJ: Love the legit Fiji hype. They’re going to fun to watch, but it’s hard to imagine England not rising to the occasion at HQ.

PT: There is no denying Fiji’s world class backs but England’s overall team and game plan will see a solid home performance, particularly in the second and third 20 minute quarters of the match.

TH: Could be the most entertaining match of the batch. Fiji isn’t going to roll over, but England’s class should shine through as the match goes on.

VR: England starts as favorites in the opening match. Fiji is a dangerous team in the backs, but lacks quality in set pieces. England needs to secure dominance in the forwards.

 

TONGA v GEORGIA

A close match looks likely, but the majority favour Tonga to win.

BR: Good game, with huge implications as the winner almost certainly qualifies for RWC 2019 automatically. I’m going against the grain again and picking Georgia in a desperately close contest.

CGC: A key match for both. The Lelos will be a hard team to deal with, but the Islanders have better skills that give them some advantage.

JB: This may be the most exciting match of the round as the teams are not as hugely apart as the others. Georgia have the forwards to stay relevant for 60, but lack of class in the backline means a Tonga victory.

PJ: Georgia just don’t do enough away from scrum time. There, I said it. While Tonga’s scrum can be very underwhelming, their power everywhere else is more than enough to compensate.

PT: Could go either way but with Georgia’s superior scrum and highly promising backline I smell an upset result. Georgia’s wins over Canada and Japan in recent years were with inferior backs.

TH: Should be a good match with a fairly close score line. The key will be which team sets the pace. My gut tells me Tonga will be a little too much for Georgia.

VR: Tough match with no easy prediction. Both teams are forward-oriented and both have great scrums, but Tonga is more complete and have the advantage in the open field.

 

IRELAND v CANADA

Poor Canada don’t get a sniff of love. Here’s hoping they make us all look bad.

BR: Even with our best players we were never going to win this one. Canada hang in there but Ireland skip away comfortably at the end.

CGC: There is no comparison between the European champions and the North American side. They traveled to England with different goals and the result will confirm that.

JB: A brick going through wet tissue paper. This could be the ugliest result of the round.

PJ: Oh boy. Canada are talking about bringing the fight but they also concede the gulf in quality. Ireland by 20 because saying 30 seems heartless.

PT: The 40-14 result at Toronto’s BMO Field two years ago is illustrative. Ireland won by 26 when missing players on Lions duty. A slightly bigger win against a troubled Canada is my prediction.

TH: Ireland needs a good game right out of the gate to chase away memories of their past World Cup scares from Tier 2 sides. Canada is in their wheelhouse.

VR: Ireland is the favorite for this match and won’t have trouble with a struggling Canadian team. The Irish are superior in every aspect.

 

SOUTH AFRICA v JAPAN

Some curious spreads but the Springboks are certain winners.

BR: I actually think the Boks will look terrible and Japan will be up for this one. Still won’t win, but they should make it entertaining.

CGC: When Meyer confirmed the names for the game it was clear that the Boks take this tournament – and every rival – seriously. Japan have no chance.

JB: Nothing about this this Springbok team gives me an indication that they could find their game plan in broad daylight with a flashlight. Japan will be feisty but the sheer individual quality of players will get South Africa the win.

PJ: So Japan can scrum. We all love it. But South Africa has all those backs, and, well Japan don’t. Don’t think Goromaru’s boot can save them, either.

PT: With this being a first-ever fixture speculation is the only possibility. South Africa’s strong team ought to power home by a similar margin to the 33 points against Samoa in 2013.

TH: We finally get to see how Eddie Jones’ gamble to hide his game plan all summer works out. May make for some interesting early moments before South Africa takes control.

VR: South Africa won’t have much trouble even though Japan are fast improving. The Brave Blossoms are dangerous in the open play and have a pretty decent scrum, but South Africa is much stronger.

 

FRANCE v ITALY

No illusions here, Italy are in trouble without their talisman Parisse.

BR: No Parisse, no sigaro. PSA is a madman but Italy are just awful right now.

CGC: The Azzurri should be a tough team to start, but the absence of stalwart Parisse is a huge problem for them. A close match that France will win.

JB: Speaking of teams without a clear game plan, France is the leader. For such a brilliant player, PSA is a clueless coach. Lucky for him the Azzurri do not have a threatening backline or a reliable kicker. The Italian forwards will be brave as always, but those backs… ugh!!

PJ: When was the last time Italy inspired you? Ever? The performance vs. Wales an illusion. As for France, what will we say about Freddie Michalak when he’s done and dusted? Should he be elevated to King Carlos-style reverence? Probably not, but in sincerity, the man has brought it for a long time now.

PT: With an appalling coach and some shocking selections France will take a player revolt like 2011 to go far in this World Cup. Should win against Italy but by a low margin. Parisse will be missed but Michalak at 10 is the hardest to swallow.

TH: Six Nations rivals duke it out in their opening match of the RWC. I just don’t see Italy being able to score enough points to be a threat.

VR: France look to be improving at just the right time and have finally decided on their team, while Italy is still suffering with poor performances and have lost captain Parisse.

 

SAMOA v USA

A surprising amount of support for the Eagles, but Samoa remain favorites.

BR: Much as I’d like Samoa to thump the Eagles for what they did to Canada, they don’t look great at the moment. The Manu still have too much firepower but it should be close-ish.

CGC: The Eagles aim to reach the quarter-finals for the first time, but the Samoans are just too much for them. Only the discipline of the Islanders could make this match a mess.

DC: I have to hope for USA to come through just to make it interesting.

JB: I want to say USA, I want to say this game is winnable. Every patriotic nerve in me wants this but it is not to be. Simply put the USA make too many mistakes in games they win against other Tier 2 sides for my liking. These mistakes will be feasted upon by a top team like Samoa.

PJ: This is going to be a fun one. Which Samoa will show up? The one that played the All Blacks close or the one that should have lost to Canada? We know there’s quality in the American team. AJ MacGinty and Thretton Palamo could both be break out stars at RWC 2015. Going with the Eagles.

PT: The Eagles have a consistant game plan flowing that can cause what would be, in some circles, taken as a significant upset result. A tight game with defense, playing the territory, and goal kicking accuracy being pertinent to see the USA sneak in a win.

TH: USA gave Samoa a scare earlier in the summer. As much as I’d like it, don’t expect a repeat. Samoa will be at full strength and ready to set a marker on Pool B. USA will put up a fight, but it won’t be enough.

VR: USA is also a fast improving side, but a full strength Samoa is perhaps too much for the Eagles. With a huge pack and quality backs Samoa is the favorite.

 

WALES v URUGUAY

The forecast looks bleak for lowly Uruguay.

BR: Japan beat Los Teros 40-0. Japan. Uruguay are going to be annihilated.

CGC: After the loss of Halfpenny and Webb, Los Teros seem like the perfect team to start with and prepare for what will be the hardest group. The Dragons will have no problems with the South Americans.

JB: Big margin I know. Wales are missing some key players, but to get out of the group of death, point difference will be key. Expect Wales to go for tries at every opportunity. Uruguay are just over-matched.

PJ: Sorry Teros, but your amateur ethos is your problem. Wales may be hobbling into this one, but they’ve still got a stack of game breakers.

PT: Given Wales’ injury disruptions starting against Uruguay is the ideal team to face first up and the players are there to get the required four tries for a bonus point victory. Los Teros’ scrum should stand firm and Berchesi will kick points.

TH: Wales are desperately in need of a rebound after some injury disappointments to key players. Uruguay should get the brunt of a side looking to show everyone they are still in the quarter-final hunt.

VR: Wales much better in every aspect. Sad that an improving side like Uruguay are in the group of death.

 

NEW ZEALAND v ARGENTINA

Nobody bold enough to pick the upset here.

BR: Think the Argies will be quietly confident, which should make for a great contest. All Blacks still a step up, and will survive a scary moment or two.

CGC: After four years competing in the Rugby Championship, every team looks beatable for the Argentinians, but not the All Blacks. Not an easy match for the champions, but NZ win.

JB: Go to Vegas and lay some money down on this. There is no way the All Blacks come into their 1st 2015 RWC game flat. The will be ready to show all that they are as hungry as 2011. The Argies will try but they probably won’t know what hit them.

PJ: So, the Pumas are on a high. But seriously, these are the All Blacks. This will be a fun one, but it’s still going to be a win for New Zealand.

PT: Pumas in Durban combined with Paris last November could pull this off. Ignore the Rugby Championship fixture as Argentina’s team will be very changed with an additional play-maker, speedster out wide, and more spice in the pack. Should push the All Blacks well into the final quarter.

TH: One of the best match-ups of the group. Two Rugby Championship sides battling it out. New Zealand is the best team in the world for a reason. A win by Argentina would be a massive upset. It will be closer than many will expect, but this is the All Blacks we’re talking about.

VR: Tough start for both teams, playing their most important match as opener. The Pumas have one of the best scrums in the world and they will offer strong opposition for the All Blacks, but New Zealand are the most complete team of the two.